Hi this is David from MinuteEarth in a special collaboration with Bill and Melinda Gates.
The human brain is a frustrating thing.
On the one hand, it has the analytical power to do the science to develop the tests and
treatments and vaccines we need to stop COVID.
On the other hand, it’s often irrational and makes us think and act in ways that help
the virus spread.
Here are four of those cognitive biases that have made the pandemic worse.
First, we humans tend to underestimate a disease’s ability to spread.
We intuitively process “growth” as linear: if one thing happens today, and one thing
happens tomorrow, then we assume that another thing will happen the next day and - by the
end of a month - 30 things will have happened.
But infections like COVID can spread exponentially, so if one person is sick today and another
gets sick tomorrow, the day after tomorrow four people could be sick, and by the end
of the month, millions of us could be sick.
The difference between this and this is HUGE - and it's the reason why many of us can't
imagine - or can't believe - that we need to take such strict precautions.
What’s more, our biased brains not only underestimate the risk of any one person getting
sick - we also underestimate the chances that that one person is us!
Ideally, in a pandemic, everyone should act pessimistically - like they're likely to get
infected (or already are) - but that kind of thinking doesn’t come naturally to us.
Humans are - by nature - optimists; Evidence shows that we think we're above average as
far as intelligence, and less likely than average to get in a car accident.
So it's no surprise that many people underestimate their likelihood of getting COVID - and act
accordingly.
The problem is, this overly optimistic behavior, when taken by lots of people, causes the virus
to spread more quickly.
We humans also have a bias against our future selves . We’re generally able to take stock
of things and decide that temporary inconveniences like steering clear of each other outweigh
temporary pleasures like - well - not steering clear of each other can help stop the pandemic
sooner.
But, in the moment, our brains’ desire for instant gratification means that we sometimes
justify doing what we want - even if that screws over “future us”.
And finally, we humans don’t like being told what not to do.
When we hear - especially from an authority - “Don’t see your family” or “Don’t
leave your house without a mask,” the primitive parts of our brains sense a threat.
We get mad and become more likely to do the opposite…even when we know the guidelines
will help limit the spread of disease!
This effect is especially strong in places where “me” is valued over “we”.
Even worse, once our hackles are raised, we’re more likely to buy into dangerous misinformation.
Luckily, we humans have also identified some ways to combat our misguided instincts.
Studies have found that regular reporting on the spread of the disease has helped people
estimate risks and positive reinforcement from friends and family has helped people
stay the course.
So perhaps the rational parts of our brains could be the key to fighting the irrational
parts of our brains.
In other words, that which can fight viruses can also fight biases.
We are really excited to have partnered with Bill and Melinda Gates on this video - and
to help them get the word out about their annual letter about important global challenges.
As you might expect, this year it's mostly about the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
They point out that everyone in the world is connected by a microscopic network of germs—so,
like it or not, we’re all in this together.
In addition to discussing how we can mitigate some of the worst fallout from this pandemic
- through equitable vaccine distribution and a huge investment in getting stalled educational
opportunities back on track - they also dig into how we can prevent the next pandemic.
That includes a global alert system that can quickly spot new threats, mega diagnostic
platforms that can test 20% of the world’s population every week, and improved monoclonal
antibody treatments and vaccines that can be rapidly deployed around the world.
Check it out at GatesLetter.com or by clicking the link in the description. Thanks!