Translator: Jaegun Lee Reviewer: Denise RQ
Ladies and gentlemen,
it is my great pleasure to talk about China
because China is really a great focus.
Wherever you go, they talk about China.
Great attention. Why?
I think, number one: China is too fast.
Three decades ago, when China started its reform,
nobody projected that China could move so fast
from a very small economy
and now became number 2 in GDP size.
In 2010, when Chinese GDP
just overpassed Japan
in US dollar parity,
just a little bit.
What happened today, 5 years later?
More than doubled. So it's very fast.
So when we talk about 2025, what about it?
We call now China-- it turned to be a new normal.
New normal moderate growth rate.
A few people probably think that's possible
because new normal, according to Chinese standard is about 7%
so it's already not normal for many, many countries.
So a question mark.
Second reason, I think, is it is big, it's too big.
The population.
Human beings have never experienced such a process
mobilizing more than 10 billion population
and let 10 billion people to be rich in a short time.
So the big population is a good thing and a bad thing.
Now, almost every country welcomes Chinese people for purchasing power.
Our Korean friends realize this, understand this better than any country.
But at the same time, they worried about the flood of Chinese people,
increasing investments, and too high purchasing power.
So big population is also a big question mark.
The third reason, I think, is it's too different.
It has a different system,
still led and continues to be led by the Communist Party.
At the end of Cold War,
we had a saying that it's the end of history,
but here in China is still different, and it continues to be different.
[Can the Chinese different political system can sustain itself?]
What does it mean?
I remember about two weeks ago, I was in Iran,
discussing with scholars including religious scholars.
They put a lot of expectation on China's future.
They told me, "We do not respect Chinese economy,
we expect Chinese political dimension which would bring
a different system to the world, a different civilization."
Believe it or not, I think that's probably true.
So China is different.
We're so used to having this Western democratic system.
Now you have a big country, it will continue like this,
but what does this mean?
Many countries probably will learn from China,
and that's a big challenge
for the existing dominating political systems.
So also a big question: whether it can sustain, what kind of impact,
but before that, let me give you the answers;
I'd like to start with China's dream.
Because China's dream is a big answer
to all of these questions.
Many people ask me why China dreams,
why Xi Jinping picked up this dream for China.
Why does China dream?
I think for Chinese people,
especially those my age - I'm 70 years old -
we understand that quite well,
because China used to be a great power,
but it fell down in modern times.
And many Chinese had a dream.
China could come back to the world stage,
could be a great power again.
And few people would believe it at that time,
Chinese used to call little Japan
[a country] that could defeat the Chinese naval fleet,
could invade China for more than one decade.
So they think it is China's problem, its system.
So we want to be back, we want to be prosperous.
Chinese suffered too much.
Also China had internal riots, internal conflicts.
By 1949,
the People's Republic was established,
and it became a new turning point for China.
It ended internal riots on the mainland, at least,
and then, starting from that,
the Chinese leaders and the government [had] a dream
to be a big power again, as quickly as possible.
I remember we had a plan to overpass Britain within 5 years,
catch up with the US within 15 years.
That's why we had a great leap forward.
And we thought it was very easy if people worked hard.
But it's a failed story.
Then we had the Cultural Revolution,
and China almost fell,
[found itself] on the edge of collapse.
Those are the original words of Deng Xiaoping.
So, the Chinese leaders decided to conduct a new policy:
reform and opening.
Reform and opening by two means:
reform and a planning system;
that showed that is a failure.
Opening the country,
to mobilize its own advantage of cheap labor and vast land
to attract foreign investments.
So when they started this, China developed so fast.
They mobilized the dream again.
So leaders [took] two steps towards China's dream.
We call it two one hundred years.
One hundred year:
The Communist Party's establishment in 1920.
So that is, by 2020,
China will become a Xiaokang, comprehensive Xiaokang,
that is, provide welfare to all Chinese people.
That's really a big dream.
Because for more than 100 years,
Chinese people never enjoyed this comprehensive welfare.
Hunger and disorder,
unstable life, the Cultural Revolution and so on.
That is why Xi Jinping picked up this dream for China.
Because 2020: what does it mean?
In his term.
According to our political arrangement,
at least he could be on the leading power for 10 years.
That is 2023.
So 2020 is his responsibility
to realize the first step towards the dream,
by the 100 years of Communist Party
who considered to be unified, integrated,
end the internal turmoil in modern China,
and to be a comprehensive Xiaokang state.
The second step will be taken by the Chinese leaders in 2050.
That is, by the People's Republic, 100 years.
So Chinese always think in 100 years.
It's a short time according to Chinese history.
A long time, but a short time for the Chinese people.
Because we have more than 100 years of declining
and then, we have another 200 years
of picking up, rising again.
So by 2025, it's still a half step to the second step dream.
That is to be a developed country.
It's not a well developed country;
it's only mid-level developed country at the time.
So the average of Chinese GDP is still in the middle, not on the top.
So, even if by 2025,
China becomes number one economy in GDP size,
as Professor Zhu said,
it does not represent everything.
The average income is still low, and many other [things].
So it's not easy.
The Chinese are seeking this transition process as 100 years.
I remember the story this year
during the Lianghui, the Congress meeting,
and CPPCC conference - I'm a member of CPPCC -
Correspondents asked me,
what do you think of One Belt One Road?
How much time does China need to finish it?
I said we need at least 100 years.
So correspondents outlined the topic,
"Professor Zhang said One Belt One Road needs 100 years."
But it's not a joke, actually.
If you really build a well-developed region connected
by all kinds of advanced infrastructures to let region become prosperous,
it needs a longer time probably.
But we want to make the dream come true.
That is I think the most important thing.
As I said, it's not easy.
We realize that it's not easy.
Because China is now experiencing
a very important, grand transformation.
The first one is economy.
China is enjoying this opening, cheap labor,
supporting government policy export, but now no longer.
We have to change, we have to move to a higher stage, to restructure,
You have to mobilize domestic amount,
you have to be an innovative economy rather than just copying.
Labor cost should increase. So you have to change.
Transformation of economy is a very hard process.
And come to the new normal,
and we thought this new normal could be 7 to 6%.
But there're great difficulties.
Currently, you see a lot of numbers of factories have closed down,
have to move to new areas.
And also, China's number one export capacity;
where can China restructure?
To move to developed countries? Already enough, already full.
Developing countries need a new dynamic force.
Later I'll talk about it.
That's probably the story behind why we need
One Belt One Road infrastructure, new economies.
So I think this transition, this transformation
is a great difficulty, but we can manage to do it.
And also we have to change
from a government-led to a market-led economy.
That happened in Korea in the past.
Second, I think the change of society:
grand transformation from a rural to a urbanized society.
Currently, we have a registered,
an urbanization rate about 35%.
People living in urban areas are about half of it.
But by 2025, I think, at least 65-70%.
That means, in the next 10 years,
you have to mobilize, remove 300 million people
and change their lives from rural to urban.
That means a lot of things.
Not just economy, not just jobs, everything.
It's a grand transformation.
During this transformation,
it is possible to have many problems
including social riots.
And also, this time it's different.
In the past, people were just searching for jobs and a higher income.
But now, they want to have a better life
- clean air, good education, and so on.
Third one: the most important thing is a system transformation.
We have to move to a legal-based political social system.
So from a personal leadership,
party leadership to a legal-based system.
Recently, we had a great debate whether it's party-led or law-led.
Where is the party's place?
So the answer is very clear,
the consensus is that the party has to follow the law.
The legal system is not easy.
But we're determined to do. We have no other choice, that's the dream.
And also, I think, China wants to be a new power, different from the old one.
China is committed to follow the road of development and peace.
A different road from the other old rising powers,
because old rising powers mean
war, expansion, replacement of the existing dominant.
But China does not want to do that; it's not easy.
Because there are three major challenges.
One challenge is domestic.
Because people want to be a big power, to show their power,
the pressure for the leaders to use that power, including the military one,
is very strong.
The second, managing disputes. We have so many disputes.
We have to manage them well,
not to let them turn into a big war, confrontation.
The third one, key issue: how to handle China-US relationship.
China is committed to be a new power,
so China calls on this new power relationship.
What does it mean a new power relationship?
That means consultation, discussion, cooperation.
Now, fortunately, we have more than 100 platforms
for this consultation, discussion on high level, mid-level, low level.
So it's open; unlike the Cold War period,
with only the U.S., the Soviet Union, very few.
But now, every day.
Then there is cooperation.
I think the two countries on both sides realize that it's so dangerous, risky,
if two countries are really confronted.
There's no winner.
So that's the basic belief.
Because in the past, the two powers, the emerging power or the existing power,
they always believed there is a winner.
But now nobody believes there is a winner.
So if nobody believes there is a winner, why would you launch a war?
So they have to try to manage conflicts, try to find ways.
Do not believe media everyday reports and how they fight each other,
but at the same time, you have to watch another process
that is careful, cautious discussions,
searching for cooperation, any kind of possibilities.
When we talk about 2025, and China's future,
we realize that the dream is our shared future.
So for one thing, China keeps its commitment
to be a peaceful rise, to be a different power.
At the same time, let us work together to create an environment
which makes China possible to be a different power.
I see my time is over, thank you so much for listening.
(Applause)