It all started with a phone call
In July President Donald Trump spoke to the newly elected…
…president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky
We had a perfect phone call with the president of Ukraine
But the transcript of that phone call reveals that Mr Trump…
…put pressure on Mr Zelensky to investigate Hunter Biden…
…and his father, Joe Biden, the potential Democratic nominee…
…for the 2020 presidential election
The gist of the accusation from Democrats against Donald Trump…
…is that he’s essentially both abused his office and betrayed…
…the national interest by putting pressure on…
…Ukraine’s president to investigate a political rival
And that President Trump withheld military aid…
…vital military aid for an American ally…
…until the president of Ukraine did what he wanted
The Democrats are hoping the current impeachment proceedings…
…will help to reduce support for Donald Trump
But could they do the opposite?
The committee will come to order
Good morning, everyone
Right now, hearings are being held in the House of Representatives…
…where the Democrats have a majority
It seems fairly clear that the House will vote to impeach President Trump
At that point the trial will move to the Senate
In order to remove a president in a Senate trial…
…you need a two-thirds majority
So you’d have to get all the Democrats, plus about 20 Republicans
If you get into the polling on impeachment and removal…
…Republicans do not want Donald Trump impeached or removed
So it’s very hard to see lots of senators…
…lots of Republican senators voting to convict him when their own voters…
…are so strongly supportive of the president
So that’s to say nothing of the merits of the charges…
…or the evidence against him
In pure political polling terms…
…it looks really unlikely that you’ll get enough…
…Republican senators to move on this
And history is also on President Trump’s side
Of the three previous presidents who have faced impeachment…
…none have been removed by the Senate
Andrew Johnson was impeached…
…and was one vote away from being removed from office
I shall resign the presidency, effective at noon tomorrow
After the Watergate scandal…
…Richard Nixon resigned before he could be impeached
I did not have sexual relations with that woman
Bill Clinton was impeached, but was saved in the Senate…
…and in the mid-term elections during the proceedings…
…his party in fact gained seats
President Trump’s support base is likely to remain stable…
…whatever questions are raised about his conduct…
…as a result of the impeachment hearings
Polling suggests that the more partisan the hearings appear…
…the more likely voters are to behave the same way…
…and back their own team
The polling now on impeachment breaks down pretty much…
…the same way that approval of Donald Trump breaks down
So those two things have come into line
Donald Trump is not a hugely popular president
But that said, he does have a sort of bedrock of about 40% support…
…that’s about the same share who are opposed to impeachment
For the most part, Mr Trump’s supporters have stood by him
Trump’s net approval was at its highest at his inauguration
By the start of 2018 it had fallen by around 12 points
Since then, it’s remained relatively steady…
…apart from a dip in support during the government shutdown
…earlier this year
Since the impeachment proceedings started…
…his approval ratings have barely faltered
But could impeachment actually increase support for Mr Trump?
If you talk to people at the White House, what they will say is…
…oh, all this impeachment talk is good for us
You know that it will help President Trump in the polls
They’re saying actually it’ll be an electoral boost to us
I’m not sure about that
I’m also not convinced that it helps Democrats a huge amount
If you go back about a month…
…the House leadership was still concerned that impeachment…
…might really backfire for Democrats
That if you’re a Democrat running…
…in a marginal seat or a district where Donald Trump did well…
…that actually it would hurt the Democrats’ chances of re-election
The majority of voters in key swing states…
…oppose President Trump’s removal
So impeachment might not harm him…
…in the way Democrats would like
They have long believed that Mr Trump should pay a price…
…for his norm-breaking behaviour
The witch-hunt continues
But given that voting to impeach him…
…is a risky decision for Democrats
Why have they chosen to do it now?
A lot of Democrats went to the Speaker and said…
…listen, if we don’t impeach the president for this…
…what do we impeach him for?
And there was a sense that they’d be giving him…
…a free pass for all sorts of behaviour
I’m announcing the House of Representatives moving forward…
…with an official impeachment inquiry
I think Democrats genuinely believe that what he did in his phone call with…
…President Zelensky was very bad
And I think privately there are quite a few Republicans…
…who’d agree with them on that