This episode is brought to you by Dashlane; Try Dashlane Premium free for 30 days at www.dashlane.com/infographics
and never forget another password and keep all your online accounts secure!
Asia is quickly becoming one of the most important geographic areas in the world in terms of
economic and military power, with China leading the way for the region as a rising superpower
and contender versus the United States.
Remembering its past humiliations by Western powers over the 20th and 19th centuries, China
is looking to a future where it is once more amongst the most prominent global powers,
if not the most powerful of all.
This means one thing- pushing the United States out of the Pacific and claiming regional hegemony.
But is war between east and west inevitable as many believe, and could China unite all
of Asia in a bid to fight off the world's leading superpower?
Hello and welcome to another episode of The Infographics Show- today we're taking a look
at the possibility of a conflict between USA and Asia, and what that might look like.
First, is such a conflict even possible?
In a very real sense, the answer is simply: no.
The US and China, as well as the rest of Asia, simply share too many economic ties to make
going to war an easy choice for either side.
In January alone the US exported over $36 billion worth of goods to Asia, while importing
$93 billion- for 2018 those figures are $510 billion exports versus $1.1 billion imports.
This includes everything from electronics to automobiles to gaming consoles.
With just China alone, the US exports around $120 billion and imports $540 billion.
The flow of cash going both ways, along with hard goods, is an economic lifeline that has
created great prosperity for both regions- though the trade deficit between the US and
Asia actually means that it would be Asia who suffers more from a war against the US
rather than vice versa, as Asia has more to lose financially.
Then there's the actual goods being swapped between countries- the US mostly imports cheap
consumer goods from Asia, along with computer equipment and machinery, while on the other
hand the US exports large amounts of foodstuffs, airplanes, fuels, and high tech machinery.
In case of war, the US would face a shortage of computer equipment- specifically microchips-
but is well equipped to quickly transition to other available markets or begin massive
domestic production.
Asia on the other hand would be hard hit by cuts of major food imports from the US, along
with high technology machinery.
A crippling blow against the US would be the loss of rare earth materials that it currently
imports from Asia, which would severely undercut manufacture of new high tech computer hardware
for the duration of the conflict, but in return Asia would face a complete blockade of American
information technologies that would throw their computer systems into disarray.
War clearly doesn't appeal to either side.
What about politically though- would a regional war even be possible?
On its own, China simply does not have the capability to defeat the United States militarily.
Its Navy is woefully underequipped versus the United States' own, who sports 11 supercarriers
versus China's two training carriers which are not certified for combat operations.
There is also a huge disparity in aircraft technology between the two nations, with 1700
aircraft of which a third are antiquated J-7 fighters and only a fourth are fourth-gen
J-10s and J-11s which are on par with American F-15s and F-16s.
Despite much propaganda about the development of its fifth-generation stealth fighter, China's
J-20 is only recently entering operational readiness and is not fielded in large numbers.
The plane also notably lacks a cannon- meaning that the Chinese have no illusions about getting
into a dogfight versus American planes, which is a good thing as its flight characteristics
shows that it cannot outfight even a fourth-generation jet such as the F-16 in a dogfight.
Instead the Chinese J-20 relies on powerful sensors to fire on enemy targets at great
distances, much like the American F-35 of F-22 Raptor, however unlike its American counterparts
China fields a much lower number of fifth-generation fighters and even less aerial support or space-based
assets with which to capitalize on all the features of a Beyond Visual Range fighter
such as the J-20 or F-35.
This means that in case of war the J-20 will likely see great success initially against
older American F-15s or F-16s, but the superior number of American 5th and 4th Gen aircraft
would inevitably overwhelm meager number of J-20s.
Of course in case of such a large war as a China-US conflict, the US would lead its attack
with the F-22, indubitably the most advanced non-experimental aircraft in the world, putting
even Chinese J-20s at great risk in the opening days of the conflict.
The US on the other hand fields a force of over 2,000 aircraft- all of which are either
4th generation or 5th generation, with more 5th gen F-35s replacing older F-15s and F-16s
every year.
As the region's premier air power, China not only is already behind the US in terms of
air power, but struggles to close a gap that the US keeps growing every year.
Both nations have already cast their eyes towards the future with the development of
a sixth generation fighter, but while China has only recently announced its pursuit of
a 6th-gen fighter, the US has already been developing its own model for years, with some
of its more advanced electronics and computer technology being prototyped in its next-generation
bomber program, which expects to field a flying prototype within the next few years.
The air power situation simply isn't set to improve much for China unfortunately, as analysts
have predicted that the slow rollout of its J-20 fighter and inferior flight characteristics
are due to China instead choosing to focus its efforts on the development of a 6th-generation
fighter, basically all but abandoning its 5th-gen design in hopes of leapfrogging the
United states with a breakthrough 6th generation fighter.
If it were to actually accomplish such a task, it would certainly change the balance of power
in the Pacific dramatically in China's favor, but such an occurrence is far from realistic
given the US's historical strength in creating the most technologically advanced aircraft
in the world.
However, China's strategy isn't completely without merit, as the US has been forced to
spend billions in support of its 5th-generation fleet, money that China could instead funnel
directly into a 6th generation design.
It is a risky proposition for China no doubt, and threatens to leave the nation without
an adequate fighter for the next decade or two, and if it fails to beat the US to a 6th
generation design, could leave China a second-rate air power for the century to come.
Other Asiatic nations do ofcourse field their own air forces which they could lend to the
battle, yet with the exception of Japan, India, and South Korea, none of these nations field
modern fighters in large enough numbers to be effective.
Most of these nations also do not have the ability to support long range flight operations
with capable airborne early warning and aerial refueling aircraft- limiting their usefulness
in combat.
A crippling lack of electronic warfare assets would also leave their aircraft and surface
vessels vulnerable to American electronic attack.
The best that other nations could do would be to play coastal defense against incursions
by American stealth aircraft, as seeking out US naval ships and taking out American naval
or air power at sea would be a suicide mission- even for China.
Yet the one advantage that China does have over the US is its formidable ballistic missile
stockpile, sporting thousands of missiles with ranges from 300 to 1500 kilometers, all
designed specifically to keep the US Navy at bay and American air power away from its
shores.
The US has responded in kind by prioritizing ballistic missile defense systems, prototyping
everything from advanced electronic attack space and airborne platforms to kinetic and
energy-based missile defense systems such as interceptor missiles and laser systems.
While keeping any specific capabilities close to his chest, one American admiral did recently
comment that he did not fear Chinese ballistic missile threats, and given the US's continued
use of aircraft carriers in the Pacific, the statement might signify that the Chinese ballistic
missile threat is not as formidable as it seems on paper- either due to US defenses
or, as many suspect, because China lacks the technological sophistication to execute every
complex link in a kill chain that would require careful coordination and sharing of data between
space and ground based platforms to the actual kill vehicle itself.
These are links in a chain that can be individually attacked, defeating the entire threat- and
many analysts suspect that China does not have the capability to properly execute such
an attack nor defend every link in that kill chain from American electronic or kinetic
attack.
Yet the vast numbers of available ballistic missiles might prove China's cold-war era
mentality that quantity is a quality all its own right, as even with limited success sheer
numbers would no doubt inflict catastrophic losses amongst the US Pacific fleet in the
opening days of the war.
Unfortunately China lacks the ability to follow up on its initial successes- its air force
is poorly suited for anything but home defense, and it has little if any expeditionary capabilities
amongst its armed forces.
China could very well force the US Pacific fleet back and savage key US bases at pearl
harbor and guam- but without the ability to project power past its own shores, it would
be unable to capitalize on its initial successes and keep the US out of the Pacific for good.
The US would simply rebuild and regroup its forces, weathering out the initial stockpile
of ballistic missiles before retaliating.
Lastly, there's the simple political question if such a war is even feasible.
For China, the local situation is grim- it simply lacks any real regional allies, with
modern nations such as Japan and South Korea all closely aligned with the United States.
It's poor treatment of lesser regional powers such as Vietnam and the Phillippines also
means that China would find itself very hard pressed to find any real allies.
It's simmering hostilities with India also means that any cooperation between the two
is all but impossible.
In short, the region lacks the political will to band together with China for an all-out
war against the US.
A US-Asia war would have no real winners.
Both sides would suffer catastrophically, though with no ability to threaten the US
homeland, it is China and any allies it finds who would suffer the most.
In the end, such a war is not only impossible, but completely unrealistic- and we hope that
our modern politicians remember this fact.