VENEZUELA THE SITUATION HAS RAPIDLY SPUN OUT OF CONTROL WITH
THE EMBATTLED SOCIALIST PRESIDENT MADURO REFUSING TO
ADMIT THERE IS A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS, PREVENTING FOOD AND
MEDICINE FROM COMING INTO THE COUNTRY.
SELF-PROCLAIMED INTERIM PRESIDENT JUAN GUAIDO MET WITH
VICE PRESIDENT PENCE IN COLOMBIA RECENTLY.
I SAT DOWN WITH A PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AT
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL COLLEGE AND TOM MAULUCI, ASSOCIATE
PROFESSOR AND SHARE OF THE HISTORY DEPARTMENT TO LEARN
MORE.
>> VENEZUELA IS A COUNTRY THAT'S DEEPLY DIVIDED AND THE ECONOMY
IS IMPLODING.
THERE HAS BEEN HYPER INFLATION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
IT'S ALSO BEEN RULED BY THE UNITED SOCIALIST PARTY CURRENTLY
UNDER NICOLAS MADURO AND THIS PARTY FIRST CAME INTO POWER IN
1998, WHEN CHAVEZ WAS DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED TO BE THE
PRESIDENT OF VENEZUELA.
OVER THE NEXT, I GUESS, WHAT, 19 YEARS OR 20 YEARS NOW, HE AND
MADURO HAVE CONSOLIDATED POWER IN THE PRESIDENCY.
SO THERE ARE A LOT OF TRAPPINGS OF DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT.
THERE IS EVEN A NATIONAL ASSEMBLY.
THERE HAVE BEEN ELECTIONS, AT LEAST DURING THE CHAVEZ YEARS
THAT HAVE BEEN CALLED DEMOCRATIC AND INVERIFIED BY OUTSIDE
OBSERVERS BUT THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CONSOLIDATION OF
POLITICAL POWER AROUND THE PRESIDENCY AND AROUND THE UNITED
SOCIALIST PARTY AS WELL.
VENEZUELA, EVEN IN THE EARLY TIME OF CHAVEZ, IT WAS A DIVIDED
COUNTRY.
DIVISION ABOUT HIS PLANS FOR THE ECONOMY, AND ONE THING TO KEEP
IN MIND ABOUT VENEZUELA IS THAT THE NATIONAL OIL COMPANY IS
VERY, VERY IMPORTANT.
IT PROVIDES ABOUT 95% OF THE EXPORTING INCOME TO VENEZUELA,
AND CHAVEZ USED THAT MONEY BETWEEN 2003 AND 2009, LET'S
SAY, TO FINANCE SOME VERY EXTENSIVE SOCIO-PROGRAMS AND
SOME OBSERVERS CREDITED HIM WITH DOING THINGS LIKE REDUCING THE
POVERTY RATE.
THEN, UNFORTUNATELY, BECAUSE YOU HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT'S LARGELY
BASED AROUND ONE COMMODITY, WHEN THE PRICES BEGAN TO WEAKEN, THE
VENEZUELAN ECONOMY GOT INTO TROUBLE.
WHEN PRICES REALLY FELL ABOUT 2014, MADURO'S SUCCESSOR DECIDED
TO SPEND MONEY TO SPEND HIS WAY OUT OF THE PROBLEM.
CHAVEZ IS VERY CHARISMATIC AND HAD A LOT OF PERSONAL APPEAL.
MADURO'S HANDPICKED SUCCESSOR DOES NOT HAVE THAT AND THAT'S
ONE REASON WHY MADURO IS IN TROUBLE RIGHT NOW.
>> BUT YOU HAVE HUMANITARIAN AID COMING IN AND THAT'S BLOCKED BY
MADURO.
YOU SEE PEOPLE RUNNING TO THE BUSES AND BEING BURNED.
IT'S TRAGIC FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE HUNGRY AND NEED MEDICAL
SUPPLIES.
>> THE REASON WHY MADURO IS DOING THAT HE'S MAKING THE
ARGUMENT THAT THERE IS NOT A HUGH TAN TEARIAN CRISIS IN THE
COUNTRY.
IT'S AN ACTION ON THE PART OF THE UNITED STATES TO CREATE SORT
OF TROJAN HORSE THAT GIVES THE OPPORTUNITY TO EVENTUALLY
OVERTHROW HIS GOVERNMENT.
SO HE HAS STRONGLY RESISTED IT WITH FORCE.
>> HE WAS ELECTED LAST YEAR, SWORN IN, IN JANUARY, AND THE
SELF-PROCLAIMED PRESIDENT, WHO IS NOW OUT OF THE COUNTRY, JUAN
GUAIDO, MET WITH VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE IN COLOMBIA.
SO HE'S THE OPPOSITION LEADER WHO IS OUTSIDE OF THE COUNTRY
AND SAYING, HE'LL BE COMING BACK.
>> HE'S ACTUALLY SIEGED POWER.
HE HAS DECLARED HIMSELF THE INTERIM PRESIDENT, WHICH
OBVIOUSLY, MADURO DOESN'T AGREE WITH BECAUSE HE SEES HIMSELF AS
THE DULY ELECTED PRESIDENT AND SINCE HE'S IN CONTROL OF THE
GOVERNMENTAL INSTITUTION, YOU KNOW, HE'S HAD A MUCH STRONGER
VOICE THAN JUAN GUAIDO.
>> WHAT'S THE NEXT STEP FOR HIM?
IF HE COMES BACK HE COULD FACE -- ARREST, CORRECT?
>> HE LEFT THE COUNTRY TO BE PART OF THE AID CARAVAN COMING
INTO VENEZUELA.
HE STAYED UNTIL THE 25th TO MEET PRESIDENT PENCE.
HE'S SINCE TALKED WITH HIM AND NOW HE'S RETURNING.
HE'S INDICATED ONCE HE RETURNS HE'S GOING TO OFFICIALLY TAKE
OVER THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
>> HOW WILL HE DO THAT?
>> MADURO WON'T HAVE IT.
>> MADURO HAS THE MILITARY ON HIS SIDE?
>> HE DOES.
>> ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN MANY DEFLECTIONS?
>> THE OIL SANCTIONS WILL BE THE KEY THING BECAUSE THE PAIN IS
NOT GOING TO HIT RIGHT AWAY, BUT MADURO GOVERNMENT HAS USED THE
OIL COMPANY IN ORDER TO PAY OFF ITS ALLIES, APPOINTED GENERALS,
WHICH WAS PROBABLY NOT THE BEST THINGS IN TERMS OF RUNNING IT AS
A BUSINESS BUT THAT OIL COMPANY AND ITS PROFITS ARE VERY
IMPORTANT FOR KEEPING THE MILITARY HAPPY.
AND SO WHAT HAPPENS, IN A FEW MONTHS, MAYBE, THE REVENUES
REALLY BECOME VERY, VERY LOW.
ARE THEY GOING TO REMAIN LOYAL TO HIM?
UNTIL NOW, MADURO HAS NOT STUCK THE MILITARY ON THE OPPOSITION.
AT LEAST CURRENTLY.
THERE WERE LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATIONS IN 2015 AND 2017.
RIGHT NOW HIGHS HOLDING OFF BUT THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN GUAIDO COMES BACK INTO THE COUNTRY?
>> HE IS GOING AFTER THEM AS FAR AS HUMANITARIAN AID.
YOU CAN SEE THE CLASHES.
I KNOW THEY ARE USING RUBBER BULLETS BUT CERTAINLY CAUSING
INJURIES AND THERE ARE REPORTED DEATH AS WELL.
PENCE TALKED ABOUT TOUGHENING UP THE SANCTIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
ON THE COUNTRY.
IS THAT SOMETHING THAT WILL WORK?
>> IT'S LIKE ANYTHING ELSE.
IT'S OVER TIME.
BECAUSE IT'S ALREADY HAVING AN ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE COUNTRY
FROM A HUMANITARIAN POINT OF VIEW.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THEY START CUTTING OFF THE OIL
SUPPLY, SOURCE OF REVENUE, HOW LONG CAN MADURO CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MILITARY SUPPORT?
ONE REASON WHY HE'S BEEN ABLE TO DO THAT SO FAR IS THAT HE'S BEEN
INCREASING THE PAY SCALES OF SOME OF THE SOLDIERS.
GIVING KEY OFFICERS KEY POSITIONS IN HIS GOVERNMENT, AND
THAT'S BEEN SORT OF ENTICING THEM TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THEM.
BUT AS THE HUMANITARIAN CRISES CONTINUES, AS IN THE CASE OF THE
BORDER SITUATION THIS PAST WEEKEND, MORE AND MORE OF THE
MILITARY, AT LEAST AT THE MIDDLE GRADE OFFICER LEVEL AND THE
SOLDIER LEVEL IS STARTING TO QUESTION, YOU KNOW, WHAT'S
HAPPENING AND STARTING TO DESERT, AND AS MORE AND MORE OF
THAT HAPPENS, OBVIOUSLY, MADURO'S SITUATION BECOMES MORE
TENABLE.
>> I'VE READ A FEW ARTICLES AND WE WERE DISCUSSING THIS BEFORE,
OF PEOPLE WHO ARE FROM VENEZUELA, THOSE WHO HAVE
SOCIALIST IDEAS, ONE PERSON SAID COME TO VENEZUELA TO SEE WHAT
SOCIALISM LOOKS LIKE.
WOULD YOU SAY THAT'S A FAIR ASSESSMENT AND DO YOU THINK IT'S
SMART FOR POLITICIANS TO LEAN THAT FAR TO THE LEFT WITH THESE
POLICIES?
>> I THINK IT'S A BAD COMPARISON.
IT'S ALSO COME UP BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELEE -- ELECTION CYCLE HAS STARTED
AGAIN.
WE HAVE PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST POLICIES.
VENEZUELA DOES HAVE A SOCIALIST ECONOMIC POLICY BUT AT THE SAME
TIME IT HAD A NATIONALIZED OIL INDUSTRY SINCE THE 1970s AND
THERE ARE OTHER COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD THAT HAVE USED STATE
OIL INDUSTRIES TO BUILD LARGE FUNDS AND DIVERSIFY THEIR
ECONOMY, SO I THINK IT'S NOT SIMPLY A QUESTION OF SOCIALISM.
IT'S ALSO MISMANAGEMENT AND CRIMINALITY AS WELL.
ABUSING THE MONEY FROM THE OIL REVENUE FOR PAYOFFS.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN TALK ABOUT VENEZUELAN INVOLVEMENT IN THINGS
LIKE THE DRUG TRADE, FOR EXAMPLE.
I THINK IT'S A KLEPTO STATE AS WELL.
I DON'T KNOW IF THAT'S A PERFECT COMPARISON.
I SAY THAT ESPECIALLY BECAUSE SOME OF THE PROPOSALS WOULDN'T
HAVE SEEM SO RADICAL IN THIS COUNTRY IN THE 1950s AMIDST THE
COLD WAR.
>> YOU SAID VENEZUELA IS A VERY RICH COUNTRY IN LATIN AMERICA
AND NOW YOU HAVE PEOPLE REALLY STRUGGLING.
DO YOU THINK THE NEXT STEP WILL BE?
>> I THINK PRESIDENT MADURO, IF HE WANTS TO STAY IN OFFICE, HAS
TO RECOGNIZE THAT HE'S GOT TO OPEN THE COUNTRY UP TO FOREIGN
AID.
BECAUSE THE POPULACE IN GENERAL, ROUGHLY 30 MILLION PEOPLE, ARE
REALLY AT, YOU KNOW, A CRITICAL STAGE.
WHEN THEY SEE THE AID BEING AVAILABLE AND THEN THE
GOVERNMENT NOT MAKING -- STANDING IN THE WAY FROM THEM
GETTING TO IT, YOU KNOW, IT JEOPARDIZES THAT POSITION.
I THINK, YOU KNOW, THERE IS A LOT OF NEGOTIATIONS GOING ON.
I KNOW THE UNITED NATIONS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING A
RESOLUTION.
I'M AFRAID IT WILL PROBABLY BE WATERED DOWN TO SOME EXTENT AS
TO WHAT WILL BE DONE BECAUSE RUSSIA AND CHINA ARE BOTH ON THE
SIDE OF THE MADURO AND THEY HAVE VETO POWER.
THERE IS ALSO THE LIMA GROUP THAT MET ON MONDAY THAT'S
LOOKING AT POSSIBLE WAYS TO BRING ABOUT A PEACEFUL SOLUTION
SHORT OF THE USE OF MILITARY FORCE WHICH I DON'T THINK WILL
HAPPEN, UNLESS THERE IS SOME TYPE OF RED LINE THAT'S CROSSED
THAT HADN'T BEEN ESTABLISHED YET.
>> I THINK IT WOULD BE VERY UNWISE IF THE U.S. INVADED OR
EVEN BEGAN TO PUSH TOO HARD BECAUSE PART OF THE IDEOLOGY OF
MADURO AND CHAVEZ, OF COURSE, IT WAS ANTI-AMERICAN, EVEN THOUGH
VENEZUELA HAS ALWAYS BEEN A VERY PRO-AMERICAN COUNTRY IN TERMS OF
POPULAR OPINION, PART OF THE APPEAL OF THEIR FOREIGN POLICY
HAS BEEN THE IDEA THAT -- INTERFERING IN THE REGION AND I
DON'T KNOW WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES WOULD BE IF IT SEEMED THE UNITED
STATES WAS ORGANIZING SOME KIND OF ARMED INTERVENTION.
I'M HOPING THE INTERNATIONAL SOLIDARITY AGAINST THE MADURO
GOVERNMENT AND ALSO THE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS WILL WORK.