Will China succeed in invading Taiwan?
Not if the US has anything to say about it
The problem is…
Does the US have anything to say about it?
Welcome to China Uncensored, I’m Chris Chappell.
The US may have just radically altered its stance toward Taiwan.
The Chinese Communist Party desperately wants to conquer Taiwan.
China is pining after Taiwan like this was a teen romcom. Wait, did I say teen romcom?
I meant slasher movie.
Just this week, China again harassed the independent democracy of Taiwan with military drills.
For almost two years China has sent a nonstop barrage of military planes and vessels near
Taiwan.
This is the most aggressive game ever of “I’m not touching you, I’m not touching you.”
What has been the US response? Strategic ambiguity.
Strategic ambiguity means that while the US provides military equipment and some military
training to Taiwan, it's never said explicitly whether it would or would not come to Taiwan's
defense, if it were attacked by China.
What a brave commitment… to not commit. And no one has been more ambiguous than President
Joe Biden. But is he strategic? Here he is at a CNN Townhall at the end of
last year.
Audience member: China just tested a hypersonic missile. What will you do to keep up with
them militarily and can you vow to protect Taiwan?
Biden: Yes and yes.
Okay, that sounds pretty unambiguous. In fact that sounded like a major change to decades
of US Taiwan policy. Did he really mean it?
So are you saying the United States would come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked.
Yes. We have a commitment to do that.
But this is where the master strategist plays his Uno reverse card!
Because the White House said this.
Well there has been no shift, the president was not announcing any change in our policy
nor has he made a decision to change our policy. There is no change in our policy.
Stunning. China must be terrified.
President Biden used Confusion. It’s very effective. Oh no, he also hurt himself in
his confusion.
In November Biden said “[Taiwan is] independent. It makes its own decisions.”
I see Taiwan has been listening to Beyoncé.
Was that statement unambiguous? Hardly! Here he is immediately after that press event.
Can you clarify what the policy is because you said today independence and in the past…
No no I said that they have to decide. They. Taiwan. Not us.
Incredible. Strategic ambiguity achieved! I have no idea what the US policy is on Taiwan.
Now, not everyone thinks this policy of strategic ambiguity is really serving Taiwan.
Last week, former Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy Seth Cropsey said it doesn’t work.
“It doesn’t deter China. It risks the safety of Taiwan, and I think it would be
a good idea if the United States were to rethink that.”
And there are signs the US is on the cusp of a major shift in its Taiwan policy. I’ll
tell you more after this quick commercial break.
Welcome back.
So, is the US policy of strategic ambiguity coming to an end?
I can tell you unambiguously…maybe.
Both the Trump and Biden Administrations have radically altered how the US engages with
Taiwan. Besides weapon sales, US lawmakers have been
traveling to Taiwan.
We found out last year that the Trump Administration had deployed about two dozen US special forces
to Taiwan to train local marines.
And then the Biden Administration doubled that number.
I mean, we’re talking like 50 soldiers here.
China must be *really* terrified now.
Not exactly numbers that would turn the tide of an invasion. But that is significant. It’s
all part of a gradual shift in the US government’s Taiwan policy. And here’s the biggest change
yet.
This is the State Department’s website on US-Taiwan relations.
It essentially lays out what’s called the One China Policy.
The US “recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal
government of China,”
While, “acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China”
“and Taiwan is part of China.”
So China claims to own Taiwan, while Taiwan is fighting for its independence. I never
realized before how much foreign policy is just like
a Lifetime Original movie.
But the “acknowledging” part is important, because the US doesn’t say it *agrees* with
China’s position, just that it acknowledges that it’s their position.
It’s like saying, “Yes we acknowledge that you think the sky is green, you authoritarian
weirdo.” Ok, the State Department wouldn’t say “weirdo” because that’s undiplomatic.
Speaking of being diplomatic, the State Department's website also says, “The United States does
not support Taiwan independence.”
At least, that’s what it said as recently as May 3. But on May 5, the State Department
made some major changes.
Instead of framing the relationship with Taiwan in the context of China, China is basically
taken out of the picture.
The new version begins “As a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse, Taiwan is
a key U.S. partner in the Indo-Pacific.”
It emphasizes the shared values of the US and Taiwan, all the ways we cooperate, and
how important Taiwan is.
Wow. That’s probably the most positive thing anyone’s ever done while drunk on Cinco
de Mayo. Although that sombrero is problematic.
The State Department website also added “the Six Assurances”.
Those were six security assurances given to Taiwan by the Reagan administration. Those
were only declassified in 2020.
But what’s most intriguing is not what was added, but what was removed.
“Taiwan is part of China.” Gone.
“The United States does not support Taiwan independence.” Gone. Wow, strategic ambiguity
just got even more ambiguous.
Do we support independence? Do we not support it? Do we support it but just don’t publicly
say so? The US supporting Taiwanese independence feels like supporting
Guy Fieri. Everyone knows they want to… but they're afraid of how others might react.
Hashtag free Flavortown.
Now it’s unclear whether any of these website changes reflect an actual change in US policy
towards Taiwan. And that lack of clarity means strategic ambiguity is obviously still the
name of the game.
But strategic ambiguity doesn’t necessarily deter an invasion. For years, the US and NATO
were ambiguous about whether they’d support Ukraine in a Russian invasion. And guess what
happened? A Russian invasion.
Which is why I’m happy to offer an alternative with respect to Taiwan.
Forget helping Taiwan defend itself if China invades. I say we go preemptive strike baby!
Let’s help Taiwan invade Mainland China!
With such a small number of attackers, China will never see it coming.
That’s what you call a big brain move.
And that kind of high level China analysis is only possible thanks to viewers like you.
YouTube is still playing dirty with us, so the biggest part of our budget to continue
making the show and paying our staff comes from the China Uncensored 50 Cent Army, fans
who contribute as little as a dollar per episode on the crowd funding website Patreon
Or our exclusive social media platform on Locals.
As a thank you, I’ll answer your questions at the end of an episode.
Today’s question comes from Derrell Lipscomb on Patreon.
“Chris: Hate, division and fear are the major drivers of the world today. Love, inclusiveness
and security have been thrown under the bus. How did we come to this? Thank you for your
part in helping open our eyes.”
Well that’s a very interesting question Derrell.
I think a lot of it has to do with people rejecting traditional values and culture.
I know that suggestion can be pretty triggering for some people, so let me explain.
Over the centuries, you’ve had people like the philosopher Rousseau for example , arguing
that civilization has made a mess of everything. That humanity in its natural state, free of
any constraint of civilization would be the happiest, most fulfilled, most loving.
But society, with all its rules and standards, in particular religion and private property,
restrains us.
That guy was an idiot.
His ideas reached their final form with Karl Marx and his Communist Manifesto.
Now I’m sure you’ve heard the argument that any time a Communist country becomes
a dumpster fire, “it wasn’t real Communism.” Which happens every time.
It’s kind of like any time I lose a pickup game of basketball and say, “Well, I wasn’t
actually trying.” Which happens every time.
So what is real Communism?
Well, I think it was best described by Lenin.
No, actually John Lennon. In his song Imagine.
“Lennon himself described ‘Imagine’ as ‘virtually the Communist Manifesto.’”
And it is! Imagine is about a beautiful utopia where everyone lives in harmony. Who wouldn’t
like that?!
But how do you make this wonderful utopia happen? Well, you have to imagine no countries.
No possessions. No religion.
And the person in charge of imagining this became filthy rich off of it. True communism!
Now some might think, well I’d rather die than give up my religion. And under communism,
that can be arranged!
As Marx said, “The Communists disdain to conceal their views and aims. They openly
declare that their ends can be attained only by the forcible overthrow of all existing
social conditions.”
Yes, the way to that utopia described in Imagine is to completely tear down everything that
makes this oppressive society function. Family . Religion . Private property . It all has
to go. And if people resist, well you have to struggle against them, don’t you? They’re
stopping the utopia! And in the name of utopia, you can commit any atrocity.
But when you completely burn down civilization, guess what?
You don’t get utopia...
you get Mad Max.
Like how John Lennon’s beautiful song may *sound* like utopia...
but in the end, you just get Yoko Ono shrieking.
So in the name of being free, people end up destroying the traditional ways of life that
have actually allowed humanity to flourish.
So to sum up, I’ll quote the words of a favorite philosopher of mine, if a lot of
people loved each other, the world would be a better place.
Thanks for your question and your support, Derrell.
And if you want to join the China Uncensored 50 Cent Army and help us fight against Communism,
head on over to Patreon.com/ChinaUncensored. All it takes is as little as a dollar an episode.
Once again I’m Chris Chappell, see you next time.