Keep your friends close and
your enemies closer.
Wise words.
But what if two of the world's
most powerful nations
burned their friendship,
and each other,
to the ground?
What if China invaded Russia?
The current relationship between
China and Russia is the strongest
it's been since the 1950s.
And these two nations
share more than just a border.
China buys most of its oil
from its neighbor to the north.
In early 2022,
both countries announced
collaborations on space,
climate change,
the internet and artificial intelligence.
After Russia invaded Ukraine
and most of the world
turned against Russia,
China took a neutral stance.
And when China set its sights
on reclaiming Taiwan,
Russia supported China's ambitions.
It's safe to say these two allies
have each other's backs.
Well, for now.
With Russia's resources drained
due to its war in Ukraine,
China might have an opportunity
to make a massive land grab.
So if this friendship between two
dictators turns deadly,
If China broke off its loyalty to Russia,
the Chinese would have the edge in the numbers department.
That's four times what Russia spends.
And with most of Russia's forces amassed along European borders,
China could move its massive
ground forces in from the east
in a quest to control its former ally's
resources and oil reserves.
And to reclaim lands Russia annexed in 1860.
With over 2 million troops,
China could dominate in a ground war.
China also has 35 million soldiers
in reserve that it could call
into action at any time.
That show of force might seem
overwhelming but it wouldn't compare
to the Russian military's experience, right?
Well, maybe not.
During the illegal invasion of Ukraine,
many Russian soldiers abandoned
their vehicles after running out of gas.
Yeah, one of the world's largest
oil suppliers failed to supply its army with enough gas.
The Russian army has been slow to adopt
new technology since the Cold War.
And fighting two wars at once could
weaken the Russian soldiers' already low morale.
But China may not fare much better.
Despite having the largest modernized army on Earth,
it hasn't fought a war since 1979.
As China moved in,
it would find Russia's terrain
hard to conquer.
Advancing troops across this massive
country could be brutal for both sides.
Russia's oil reserves could help
it turn the tide,
as could its fleet of armored vehicles.
Russia has a tank force of 12,000 units,
while China has less than 6,000.
However, with the Baikal mountains acting as a natural barrier,
eastern Russian cities like Vladivostok
could fall first to the invading army.
Going deeper into central Russia,
where the oil fields lie,
could be catastrophic.
China could lose significant numbers of people and equipment.
While their naval forces are equal,
Russia's ships would be too spread out
across the seas to repel China's attack.
By attacking en masse,
China's vast submarine fleet could
decimate Russia's Pacific Fleet.
These two warring nations
are the biggest trade and political rivals of the U.S.
If China and Russia were at war,
the U.S. might just sit this one out
and let its competitors eat each other alive.
"Let them fight."
Since the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO,
was formed to respond to the now-defunct USSR,
none of its 30 countries would dare
to get involved on anyone's behalf.
Russia might seek help from former
Soviet states and trade partners like Belarus, Kazakhstan and Cuba.
But China?
Well, that's a different story.
North Korea might be the only friend they have in this fight.
This conflict would be drawn out, bloody, and have no end in sight.
With such a desperate fight on its hands,
Russia has over 6,000 nuclear weapons in its arsenal,
ready to strike.
With only 350 known warheads,
China would be outgunned.
But it would only take a few strategic hits
from both sides to create
a nuclear wasteland in all of Eurasia.
This promise of mutually assured
self-destruction might be the only
thing that could prevent this apocalypse.
As Russia continues its reign of terror in Ukraine,
many countries are already seeking
different oil suppliers so they can
cut off support to this regime.
A China-Russia war would devastate
Russia's remaining trading partners and China.
If China turned on its ally,
no country could ever trust them again.
But what if,
in the haze of war,
China killed Russia's supreme dictator,
Vladimir Putin?
Well, keep watching because
that's a story for another WHAT IF.