Explosions at Russian power plants, followed by more recent explosions at Russian air fields. Both
times, Ukrainian drones has been to blame- but could the call be coming from inside the house?!
Shortly after the start of Russia's special military operation to defeat itself by
invading Ukraine, strange accidents began to plague industrial sites, military depots,
recruitment stations, and even power plants inside Russia itself. In late April saboteurs
blew up power pylons coming from a nuclear power plant in the Russian region of Kursk.
After repairs were accomplished, the power pylons were destroyed again. Meanwhile,
a series of fires and explosions struck Russian conscription stations and ammunition depots
well behind the front lines of Ukraine. Some, such as the attacks on conscription stations,
have been verified as having been committed by anti-war Russians. The rest are blamed
on Ukrainian saboteurs- for its part, Ukraine has remained tight lipped about the incidents.
Crimea has been hit especially hard by saboteurs. The region was annexed by Russia in 2014,
a claim that the international community has never recognized. Today though, Crimea is not
just stolen territory, but a strategically vital hub for Russia's war effort in southern Ukraine.
The region is a direct link to Russia itself, allowing for fast resupply via the Kerch bridge
for all Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Air bases in the penninsula also allow Russia
to launch attacks across the front lines, or to launch long-range cruise missiles via its bombers.
Taking Crimea back is not just a moral objective for Ukraine, but a critical strategic one as well.
As the Russian southern offensive was blunted, and then gradually turned into a rout- or as
the Russian Ministry of Defense calls defeat: a hasty advance to the rear- Crimea became a
critical piece on the chessboard. Out of range of even long-range artillery,
and with the US refusing to grant Ukraine the long-range missiles it has been requesting for
months, Ukrainian armed forces had to turn to more covert means to attack the region.
No one knows how, and the Ukrainian government isn't spilling the beans,
but on October 8th of 2022, a huge explosion rocked the Kerch bridge. It's believed that a
truck bomb might have been used to carry out the attack, which collapsed one lane
of the bridge and destroyed several train cars on the rail portion of the bridge. The
attack was clearly aimed at severing this vital resupply artery into Crimea, but unfortunately
the explosion failed to bring the bridge down and traffic was eventually restored.
Earlier, Ukraine struck at multiple military sites in Crimea. The first attack was against
Saky air base, where multiple Russian aircraft were destroyed in a series of
explosions. The attack was captured on video by many of the Russian tourists
who were enjoying the sun at a nearby resort- Crimea is after all the jewel of Ukraine and
a popular tourist destination. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense put out a special tourism
video aimed directly at Russian civilians vacationing or illegally occupying Crimea.
Further sabotage against a military depot in the
Dzhankoy region of Crimea ended with a huge explosion, and also damaged railway
tracks leading to the depot as well as power lines and a nearby power station.
To the north, Ukraine also struck inside Belarus itself. On August 11th,
eight blasts rocked the Zyabrauka air base in southeastern Belarus,
near the Ukrainian border. The base was being used by Russian bombers to fly combat sorties
into Ukraine itself. S-400 air defense systems as well as Iskander ballistic missiles are also
stationed there, and have been used to target Ukrainian assets. The Belarusian government
claimed the incident was the result of an engine fire on a military vehicle,
and that the west was simply jealous of superior Belarusian exploding-engine technology.
However, nothing rattle the Russian people and military both quite like
Ukraine's attacks on December 4th, 2022.
Russia is currently launching a terror campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure,
in an attempt to demoralize the Ukrainian people by denying them electricity during the
freezing winter months. In the days leading up to December 4th, Russia had amassed a significant
number of long-range strike aircraft including strategic bombers armed with cruise missiles.
The objective was to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenses and destroy a significant amount of
Ukraine's remaining energy grid in a massive air, ground, and sea-based missile attack.
Ukraine's air defenses are limited, but improving each month thanks to equipment
provided by the West. However, knocking cruise missiles out of flight is a tricky proposition
even for advanced air defense systems. Thus, if Ukraine was going to stem the destructive tide
coming its way it needed to limit the number of missiles Russia could put in the air. To that end,
it undertook two stunning attacks hundreds of kilometers inside Russian territory itself.
Early in the morning of December 4th, explosions rocked both Engels-2 base in the Saratov region
and the Dyagilevo air base in Ryazan- both deep inside Russia and the latter very close to Moscow
itself. The attack resulted in two aircraft being damaged and three ground personnel being
killed according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The next day a third attack struck
an airfield in Kursk, blowing up an oil tanker and causing moderate damage but no casualties.
The attack was shocking for multiple reasons. For one,
Engels-2 is home to part of Russia's strategic nuclear bomber fleet. While none of the planes
were loaded with nuclear weapons, and the nukes are kept safely in storage- presumably,
at this point nothing is guaranteed with Russia- the attack shows that
one of Russia's most important air bases is not out of the reach of Ukrainian attacks.
However the other reason the attack send shockwaves throughout Russia is the fact
that the nation was seemingly completely helpless to stop it. The Russian Ministry
of Defense claims that its air defense units intercepted a Ukrainian drone,
and the wreckage falling from the sky is what caused the explosions. Even if this
were true it would still not bode well for Russian air defenses, as a modern
air defense battery is meant to intercept targets anywhere from dozens to hundreds of
miles away from your vulnerable air fields and bombers- not literally right on top of them.
Russia claimed that Ukraine used an old 1970s Soviet drone called the Tupolev Tu-141 to carry
out the attacks. This old Soviet recon drone was meant to fly over NATO lines in case of war at
high speed and photograph them for reconnaisance. Presumably Ukraine upgraded the electronics and
avionics and packed it full of explosives. This is an unlikely story though, but if it is true
then Russia is just embarrasing itself further as it proves it can't defend from 1970s tech.
Some have speculated that Ukraine instead used a modern drone that is known to be in
development by state-owned manufacturer Ukroboronprom. This drone is stated to
have a range of 621 miles (1,000 km) and can deliver a 165 pound (75 kg) warhead.
Ukraine itself has confirmed that it used drones in the attack, though despite the
official story there's serious reason to doubt that this was the drone responsible.
The problem with Ukraine's official story is that the damage that we can see from at least some
of the photos (show photo of the damaged bomber again) is not indicative of such a large warhead.
A 165 lbs warhead would have caused significantly more damage than what was photographed,
but the fact that a fuel truck was specifically targeted, and a fuel tanker in the third attack,
strongly hints that the attack was carried out using a much smaller drone purposefully
targeting highly explosive assets in order to create a large secondary explosion.
A smaller drone means much shorter range, which makes us suspect that the attack was carried out
by Ukrainian special forces deep behind Russian lines, using small drones launched low and fast
from very close the target airfields themselves. Ukraine has at least partially confirmed this
theory stating that special forces had helped guide the drones to their targets, likely with
laser designators. However, this may be a smoke screen, an attempt to make Russian believe that
Ukraine truly is launching large, long-range drones that its air defenses apparently cannot
see. This would have significant strategic value as Russia desperately sweeps its skies for threats
that aren't there, and takes attention away from a boots-on-the-ground team deep behind enemy lines.
This is pure speculation, but if Ukraine had in fact used these larger drones with a long range,
then Russia has some serious problems with its air defense. The S-400 has long been
touted by Russia as the world's premier air defense system, and yet so far it seems to be
wholly incapable of defending Russian airspace. The revelation has prompted a flurry of memes
from the online community (use picture meme1 attached to trello card). Indeed, Russian air
defenses have performed a lackluster job so far, prompting even ardent Russian supporters
to famously ask, “What air defense doing?” which naturally prompted its own meme response.
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was once feared as a master of sabotage,
and NATO fully expected an extensive sabotage campaign deep behind the front lines in case of
war. However, it seems that in the years since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
Russia has forgotten the lessons of asymmetrical warfare. Ukraine meanwhile has been content
to teach it a masterclass on how to disrupt military operations via asymmetrical means.
And the results are staggering- of Monday's much-feared missile blitz against Ukraine's
power grid and civilians, Ukraine claims that it shot down 60 out of 70 missiles launched by
Russian forces. One does not have to believe this figure to be exact if they don't want to,
but what is clear is that the ability to disrupt Russian air operations deep inside its own
territory directly led to a failure to saturate and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, leading to
a huge expenditure of an ever-dwindling stockpile of precision weapons for very little gain.
Now go check out What If Ukraine Loses The War To Russia, or click this other video instead!