Thank you so much for making time for Deutsche Welle.
So, some say these are the most important elections this year do you agree?
Absolutely the Budestag election on September 26 is the most important election happening
anywhere in the world this year, in my opinion because Germany is at the heart of Europe,
Germany, defines in many ways that Europe takes, and it's a crucial part of the transatlantic
bond. So, this is undoubtedly going to be a major event on the political landscape.
Germany has a very different system than the United States we have several parties,
not only two is here, maybe you can talk a little bit why that matters.
Sure. A parliamentary system in which you have many parties represented more parties
now than ever before in Germany, in recent German history. It means that any government has to be
formed as a coalition, nobody has an absolute majority on, on his own,
and therefore, that means compromise, so it means that nobody gets exactly what they want,
and it means also that people in the United States who are thinking about the impact on
the German American relationship have to take into account this coalition dynamic
this compromise which is going to characterize German politics in the future as it always has.
What does that mean for reliability?
The, the tendency in Germany to have a
negotiated coalition agreement. It gives a certain amount of predictability. And I would
say the problem is, in some ways, perhaps in the opposite direction. Because parties in Germany,
when they form a government. They have a written coalition agreement which is often dozens,
if not more pages long, there's a desire to try to anticipate it. You can't anticipate
everything. And so it's that, that can give a lack of flexibility to future actions, because
things that are not covered in the coalition agreement then have to be hammered out a new,
and there can be a reluctance to deviate from those agreements, so I think it's, it's more a
question of having enough flexibility to react to the way the world is going to change, rather
than predictability about what your positions are today, and for the next couple of months.
As you're an expert on international affairs, maybe we can talk a little bit about the
expectations of the three biggest parties.
I think that Chancellor Merkel having been in power for 16 years,
there is an expectation of a certain continuity. And there you see from an American perspective
that the chancellor has been on the one hand, concerned about holding Europe together,
the European Union, especially through a number of crises. Now,
Germany as the largest and the richest country in Europe has the delicate task of trying to bring
together the ambitions of those who want to more European integration and they wanted faster with
those who are more skeptical, and in that sense, Germany is a compromise broker rather than a
at the vanguard like new innovations, instead it's sort of a moderating force. And I think
that when you look at Europe, Armin laschet The Chancellor candidate from the CDU/CSU has, has
said that he will think, European and he will act European, and he has a European instinct. And so
I think that would be something to look for from a government that he might lead. How will it seek to
strengthen the European level of policymaking and what concessions will Germany be willing to offer
its European partners in order to achieve that greater degree of cohesion. Will that be on the
financial or fiscal side, will that be in the foreign policy, or will it be in other areas.
As for now it looks as you just said very likely that he might be the successor of Angela Merkel,
talking a little bit about his take on the transatlantic relationship.
If you talk about the transatlantic relationship, the CDU and CSU, have always tried to to
characterize themselves as, as real advocate staunch advocates of a strong transatlantic bond.
And that has held, regardless of the President in power in the United States, there have been
major ups and downs in the relationship, but that that real adherence to the transatlantic pillar,
as one of the two most important aspects of German foreign policy. On the one hand, the United States
on the other hand, the European Union is, is at the center of the CDU’s view of the world.
Let's talk a little bit about Olof Scholz from the Social Democrats, they have a traditionally
closer relationship to Russia Gerhard Schroder one of the
Chancellor's from the Social Democrats, was kind of the mastermind behind, behind Nordstream 2.
What what is your take on Olof Scholz when it comes to the German American relationship.
I think Olof Scholz, if you listen to the way he has portrayed his view
of the world and of Germany's place in the world. And if you look at the way he has talked about
the Biden administration. I think he is sought to align them quite closely to tell
German voters in a way I know how to work with the US administration under President Joe Biden.
And and I think that encompasses not only some of the traditional foreign policy elements,
I think we'll come back in a second to Russia and to NordStream, but it's also about
the global economy. What kind of regulation should there be in the global economy, Olof Scholz, along
with the United States Government have talked a lot about the minimum tax on the international
corporations, and that has been achieved an agreement in the g7 context also in the G 20
Now it's a question of turning that into national obligations, but I think there
you see an area where the Social Democrats have tried to present themselves in a way as
transatlantic-assists for the global digitized global economy. Now when it comes to Russia I
think you're absolutely right, people in the United States, when you look at the Russia
policies of Germany and Europe. One of the first things they focus on is the NordStream 2 pipeline
project. And and I think Chancellor Merkel, of course has defended that project, and she
has seen through an agreement with the United States about how that might move forward. But I
think people still see that as primarily a social democratic party initiative, and the priority and
there I think there's just a major disagreement in both American parties, the Democrats and the
Republicans are quite critical of Nord Stream two, and, and that stance isn't going to change,
Then there are the greens, there were times when people were expecting hoping fearing that Annalena
Baerbock might become the next chancellor. What I think you see from an American perspective
is how strongly the values orientation comes through in the greens, foreign policy vision.
You can see that when you look at questions that relate to China,
and especially things like forced labor, and the importance of human rights, including
the implications of human rights policy for Germany's international economic engagement
there I think the greens are they tried to go much further than than other parties in Germany
have gone thus far. If you look at Russia policy, I think you see also a not only a criticism of
Russian foreign policy, but more fundamentally a deep disappointment but a deep concern
about human rights in Russia about the nature of Vladimir Putin's regime,
and about the implications that has for stability in Russia and Russia's role in its immediate
neighborhood. And more broadly, in Europe and in the world. So I think there, you see a values
driven alignment that is very similar to the way Joe Biden talks about the competition between
democracies and autocracies as one of the defining elements of the international situation today.
Do you have an idea, of whom the Biden administration would kind of prefer.
Well, I think they would be careful never to express a preference because there's,
there's, there's nothing to be gained by trying to weigh in, in advance of an election. It can
only backfire and be used against you. I think that what people in the Biden administration,
recognize, is that any German government is going to be the result of compromise
and concessions, among the partners. So that's the first thing is don't read the
party program of one party and assume that that will that will shape the Germany of the future,
but I think you can also look at these positions and see how Germany's foreign policy might evolve.
And there, I think you can find something, you know something for everyone. If you it on the
one hand the continuity and the transatlantic commitment in the CDU CSU approach. On the other
hand, the views of the global economy, that the Social Democrats, bring or the the values driven
imperative of the greens program. So I think people will be looking for new leadership,
new personalities and trying to forge constructive working partnerships with whoever emerges. And
we also we haven't talked about the Liberals the Free Democrats. There's also I think a significant
likelihood that they might be part of a future German government, and there I think you also see
a, you see a bit of the values basis in the FDPs election program. And, and I think it's a reminder
that this may be the most complicated German government that we've seen in recent history.
IP:
I think we have to talk a little bit at the end of this interview about Angela Merkel after 16 years
in office that's a long period she shaped the understanding of Germany for a whole generation,
generation I think also in the United States, she's very well known.
What is her legacy when it comes to the transatlantic relationship,
How long do we have.
let's say two minutes.
Okay, two minutes. So I think that Merkel's legacy is, you know, it is on the one hand, a
commitment to preserving a working German American partnership and a transatlantic relationship,
you see this in the way she took heat at the start of her chancellorship for finding ways to work
closely with President George W Bush, America's popularity in Germany was at a low point,
when she took office in 2005. And so, you know, it's important to remember that she has stood
for a strong partnership with the United States, even when it was unpopular. I think you see that
as well during the presidency of Donald Trump's, although in that case, you see Merkel I think
drawing distinctions, to a greater degree between German policies, German disagreements with the
United States, while at the same time recognizing the essential importance of that relationship.
And then, I think you also have to look at her commitment to keeping the European Union,
functional, and together on major issues. That is a hugely important for the United States as well.
Chaos in Europe is not good for the United States, that does not benefit us, and having someone who
is able to take the long view, and to foster a strong European Union and and a strong Europeans
contribution to transatlantic security in NATO is really crucially important to me.
Jeffrey, thank you so much, that shall be continued after the election
and then we discuss the outcome and the implication for the US-German relationship.
I look forward to it. Thanks so much., Ines.