Hello and welcome to the latest update of the sugarcane rainfall outlook for the North Sugarcane
District. First we'll be covering recent rainfall amounts recorded so far in May, then the forecast
rainfall over the short term. We'll then look at the June and July rainfall outlooks in detail
before a short summary of the longer term Winter rainfall outlooks and climate drivers. During
May we've seen rainfall totals of around 80 to 120 millimetres through the Tully and Innisfail
regions with Bingle Bay the highest in the region so far with nearly 160 millimetres. Rainfall
totals decreased to around 15 to 30 millimetres through Ingham with a maximum of 46 millimetres
at Lucinda and further decreased to around 10 to 20 millimetres in the Upper Herbert catchment.
Month to date rainfall totals have been well below average so far, as shown on the right with most
locations receiving only 40 to 60 percent of their median monthly rainfall totals for May,
with those percentages dropping to around 20 or lower further south through the Ingham and broader
Herbert catchment. Looking ahead to the short-term forecasts and here we have the three-day rainfall
accumulation totals from this Friday to Sunday on the left, Monday to Wednesday in the middle panel
and Thursday to Saturday next week on the right. The southeasterly surge is currently enhancing
some light stream shower activity through the wet rropics. That southeasterly flow will ease
on Saturday with showers largely clearing over the weekend and early next week. A significantly
cooler air mass will reach the tropics on Sunday, and coupled with clearer skies we expect to drop
in temperatures during Sunday and Monday with forecast minimums around 6 to 10 degrees below
average for May. Temperatures will gradually warm from midweek and another southeasterly surge is
expected later in the week with another round of showers for the region. Here we show the chance
of exceeding 25 millimetres of rainfall over the next fortnight broken down into week-long periods.
North of Cardwell up to Innisfail we're looking at a 25 to 50% chance of exceeding 25 millimetres for
each weekly period, and south of Cardwell there's a less than 10% chance of seeing 25 millimetres
over both weekly periods. Into the whole of June Outlook, and an average chance of exceeding the
June median rainfall is predicted for Cardwell and north, while further south there is a low,
around 30 to 40% chance of exceeding the June median rainfall. The model skill at this time
of year is fair to poor typically getting it correct around 50 to 55% of the time and dropping
below 50% around the Innisfail region. This translates into about an equal chance of seeing
rainfall close to the historical median for the month around Ingham and slightly higher odds of
exceeding the median rainfall around the Innisfail region, as we can see from this comparison of
the 50 chance of at least chart on the left with the historical median map on the right.
Expanding on the possible June rainfall totals here with the high chance on the
left 75% chance of exceeding or three out of four times we can expect to see at least
this much throughout the month of June and the lower chance totals on the right the 25% chance
or one out of four times we would expect to see these totals exceeded in the region during June.
Moving on to the month of July and a slightly wetter signature is evident on the rainfall
Outlook over northern parts with a moderate to slightly higher chance 60 to 65 percent
of exceeding the July median rainfall while a neutral signature can be seen south of Cardwell.
The model shows improved skill during July compared to June and is typically correct
around 50 to 65% of the time. This translates into about an equal or slightly higher chance
of seeing rainfall close to the historical median for the month as we can see from this comparison
of the 50% chance of at least chart on the left with the historical median map on the right.
Expanding further on the possible July rainfall totals here with the high chance on the left
the 75% chance of exceeding or three out of four times we can expect to see at least this
much through the month of July, and the lower chance totals on the right the 25% chance or
one out of four times we would see these totals exceeded in the region. And a quick snapshot of
the rainfall outlook for Winter months through June to August as a whole and we see higher,
around 60 to 70% odds of exceeding the median rainfall across winter over the region north
of Cardwell with a more neutral signal further south. The modelling is typically correct 55 to
65% of the time through this forecast period. So what's driving this? We're currently in an
El Niño watch which is a 50% chance of El Niño forming later this year, around double the normal
likelihood. In recent months we have observed eastern tropical Pacific waters warming. but
we have seen little atmospheric response yet. All International climate models indicate it is very
likely Pacific ocean temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the Winter, however
an atmospheric response is also required for an El Niño to be declared by the Bureau. El Niño
is normally associated with lower than average Winter and Spring rainfall over eastern Australia.
However unusually warm water over the northern Coral Sea is expected to be a stronger climate
influence over Far North Queensland, increasing the odds of exceeding the median rainfall over the
Winter period for northern parts of the district. This translates into about an equal chance or
slightly higher of seeing rainfall close to the historical median for the Winter across the north,
and similar values to the historical median to the south as we can see from this comparison of
the 50% chance of at least chart on the left with the historical median map on the right.
That's it for this update, as always check the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's
website or the BOM Weather App and be sure to send any feedback through to agriculture@bom.gov.au,
we'd love to hear from you. See you next Outlook, thanks for listening.