The Following Is An Exercise of Alternate History
(Insert sound here)
It Is Simply One of the Countless Scenarios That Could Have Happened Had History Gone Down a Different Path
(Roll Film)
(Cue cheesy World War II-era propaganda music stuff)
(Insert weird SFX again)
ALTERNATE HISORY HUB
"THE FINAL PUSH"
(Narrator) "Quite fitting to the time of Halloween"
"The invasion of the Japanese homeland officially began this week."
"Bringing a whole new scare on the enemy on their own turf"
"And the tropical beaches of Kyushu wherein an army force storm to the defenses of the enemy"
"Fighting in conditions absolutely never seen in the Pacific theater."
"After days of intense combat, the enemy was on the run and the beachhead was secure"
"Military commanders have assured the public that the invasion will be swift"
"And one final push to bring the Japanese to unconditional surrender."
(Narration ends)
(Honestly, they should have done this instead. Epic points for Murica)
(Cue Cody)
War... is messy.
(Cue slideshow of World War II pictures)
Even if a conflict end decisively,
there's always destruction left behind.
In Europe, Hitler's inability to surrender only prolonged the inevitable.
This determination to hold on to power backfired
When the the Easter front broke, and Germany retreated
There wasn't mercy on the Russian side.
The Russians raped, murdered, and deported millions of people
As they moved on to Berlin.
This is what happens in modern war.
Everything is affected because the scale of the conflict isn't limited to just fields.
It's entire cities,
economic zones,
population centers.
Because the Nazi's didn't surrender,
the outcome of the war came through bloodshed.
Millions more died,
the Soviets claimed land for themselves,
and Europe was divided.
We didn't see this after the surrender of Japan.
As we're taught in school
the Pacific War Strategy was pretty simplistic:
America retook each island occupied by Japan,
destroying most of the Japanese fleet in the process,
then, just in time, drop the atomic bomb to end the war;
two, for good measure :3
And, somewhere, the Soviets invaded Manchuria.
No matter your opinion on the end of the war
we're left with the ramifications of the short end to the conflict.
The rebuilding of Japan was quick
and the country has become one of America's closest allies.
The formerly isolationist empire is now one of the largest economies in the world,
and a first world, democratic nation.
But there was a chance
that it might not have ended up this way.
Even though two bombs were dropped,
and the Soviets invaded Manchuria,
the only event that truly mattered
was the single decision to surrender by the Japanese emperor.
Japan had attempted to surrender earlier,
but their conditions were deemed unacceptable by American standards.
To the Japanese, they feared complete surrender
was a threat to the Emperor's life.
(Those special effects though. So much money poured out, Cody!)
In our timeline,
after the shock of two nuclear blasts
and a Soviet invasion of Manchuria,
Japan bent the knee
But in an alternate timeline?
If the nukes were never dropped
and the Soviet threat wasn't really fully realized by Japan?
The Emperor could simply.. never surrender.
If this was the case,
the US was ready to use all force necessary
to bring them down.
Even if that meant American boots in Japan.
This was Operation Downfall;
A very real,
very possible,
worst case scenario,
crafted by the US military
in case the Japanese refuse to surrender.
A complete invasion
of the Japanese homeland.
Requiring a fleet and force larger than that of D-Day.
So what if, in an alternate timeline,
the Japanese didn't surrender?
Say, the Manhattan Project was behind,
and didn't produce a workable bomb by August.
This opens the door
for a darker strain of events
that would bring World War II
to a longer,
grinding,
and more tragic conclusion.
Now, when discussing Downfall,
it's important to note
this was a worst case scenario.
If action was needed to torch the foxhole
on a nationwide level,
this was the plan that was needed to do it.
This scenario is only
if every action taken by both sides
brings each other closer
to an inevitable conflict on Japan.
(Incoming context warning!)
But! Before discussing any of that,
we need to catch up on some history.
(Flashback!)
In 1943,
FDR deemed that the only way
to truly win the war
was a policy of "Unconditional Surrender"
against the Axis Powers.
This was used as a way
to stamp out the militaristic elements
from the governments of the nations who lost.
To the Japanese,
this concept was terrifying.
Many imagined
what scenarios would happen
if they were at the whim of an American victory.
Would the Emperor be executed?
Would the Imperial code be thrown out?
In Japanese Military code,
surrender was, literally, not an option.
By this time,
the Japanese homeland had been obliterated
from years of war.
Air domination by the US
had allowed for constant firebombing of cities,
leaving millions homeless,
and hundreds of thousands dead.
After fighting in Europe,
and island hopping,
the US was tired of war.
Another stage of the conflict
was the last thing the Americans wanted.
The outcome of the following months
rested entirely on the shoulders
of a few powerful figures in Japan.
Yes,
there were attempts to get a conditional surrender
by a few in the government.
However,
what was explicitly wished for
was that the Emperor was to stay in power.
Other than that,
the scale of these negotiations varied.
From wishing for the government to remain untouched.
For Japanese war trials
You know, like the rape of Nanking,
to be done by Japan.
And, for there to be a limited occupation
of the Japanese homeland,
including very small American presence in Tokyo.
This was, of course, completely unacceptable
to the Americans.
Unconditional surrender was the only way.
But,
with heavy casualties
on both Iwo Jima and Okinawa,
It became clear to the US that
more were going to die
to achieve this goal.
So,
there were two options
to break the Japanese.
One:
surround Japan and blockade the entire island.
This would create famines
which would leave millions of civilians dead,
and perhaps, after months of starvation,
Japan would surrender.
The second
was Operation Downfall.
It would be, at least, a six-month endeavor
to clear out resistance in Japan,
even though Japan's cities were destroyed,
its navy obliterated,
and air force obsolete,
Japan still could be capable of one thing:
Guerrilla war.
Oh wait, wait wait!
Before we get to invasion or starvations,
certainly, the Emperor would have intervened by now
and surrendered.
Right?
Well, that's true.
But we have to think about
why did the Emperor surrender.
There were two factors:
Nuclear bombs
and Russia.
And Russia
FAR outweighed the nuclear bombs.
As much as most Americans hate to say.
For the entire war,
Japan and the Soviets
never fought each other.
Japan even had an embassy in Moscow
and repeatedly tried to call for surrender,
under their own terms, of course,
by negotiating through Russia.
In August, 1945,
this relationship broke down.
The Soviets felt confident
and invaded Japanese-occupied Manchuria
on August 9th.
The same day Nagasaki was bombed.
This wasn't a small border skirmish,
this was a full invasion.
A million and a half Soviets
versus
the dwindling Japanese occupation force.
The Japanese lost the entire force
of 700,000 men
in the period of two weeks.
Either killed,
deserted,
or captured.
This sudden loss
scared the Japanese to think that
prolonging the war
would just put them in the hands of communists.
And if there was one thing the Communists didn't like,
it was a religiously divine autocratic leader.
The Americans,
by comparison,
the Japanese hoped were a better shot
to maintaining the emperor
in some form.
And that gamble paid off
as the Americans allowed Hirohito to rule,
fearing rebellion.
So, in this alternate timeline,
for Operaton Downfall to go through,
the Japanese emperor
would need to not surrender
in the face of both a Soviet and American invasion.
This is practically suicide by this point.
But if he doesn't surrender,
then he simply allows his military to continue their plans
and Japan would be an industrialized guerrilla force.
What exactly did Operation Downfall consist of?
The manpower comprised mostly of American troops
but also supported by British and Australians.
Japan is mountainous,
with pockets of civilization in the valleys below.
Taking these cities means
the military still has to out Japanese defenses
in the rural mountains.
Scaling high terrain to destroy zealous troops
inside the mountain bunkers.
On November 1st, 1945,
or X-Day,
Downfall begins.
It was split into two operations;
the first was Operation Olympic:
the invasion of Kyushu,
the southernmost island.
If the Allies took this,
even a small portion,
then they could have a foothold
to invade the rest of Japan.
The problem was:
Geography
x.x
And there are only a few points
the Americans can actually invade.
This invasion
is more of a slug fest.
A bombing campaign further weakens defenses,
but the Japanese are still held up
in underground bunkers.
The Allies invade from three points
at the southernmost tip of Kyushu.
The Allied forces would sail from
Hawaii,
the Philippines,
the Marianas,
and the Ryukus, respectively.
After capturing the small portion of the island,
the Allies, then, prepare for Operation Coronet:
the invasion of Honshu;
or the main island of Japan.
The US would hold Kyushu
for a few months.
During this period of time,
the Soviets would have enveloped
the entire Korean peninsula,
and invaded the island of Hokkaido.
Just like in Germany,
the Americans and Soviets
would be invading the same country
from opposite ends.
In this alternate timeline,
it's a practical race to Tokyo.
It's very unlikely,
by this point,
the Japanese emperor wouldn't surrender.
But if he didn't,
then that means
Operation Coronet
would, then, take place
in the next March.
A straight-up amphibious assault
on the Kanto plain
that the Allies,
would then,
fight north, and seize Tokyo.
The entire specifics of the assault
weren't entirely finalized
because the war ended.
But, what we do know
is that it consisted
of a million men.
Standard aircraft carrier bombardment of Kanto,
would be followed by a full invasion
of nearly every unit available
in the Pacific theater.
All coming down onto Tokyo.
After this attack,
it's likely the Japanese would be fractured
and broken down.
The emperor, perhaps, would be arrested,
or killed.
If he surrenders,
then, perhaps, all fighting would cease.
If he's killed,
then the Allies have a far greater threat on their hands.
The entire aftermath of occupying Japan
depends on the fate of the Emperor.
He was still the political center of Japan,
and removing him would cause a practical rebellion
from all sides of the Island,
which the US would, then, have to put down.
This was the only reason
why we kept 'em in our timeline.
The US takes Japan.
Great!
... Now what?
I can't predict how vengeful
the US would be
after having to lose countless lives
to take the islands.
Perhaps the military would bite its tongue
and allow many of the leaders
to stay for... bureaucracy's sake.
Or, the US would purge the Japanese government,
suppress the culture,
and punish the people of Japan for the war.
Either way,
tensions between the two countries
are FAR greater
than in our timeline.
And more energy is used to rebuild
a more destroyed Japan.
In the time it took the US to invade Japan,
the Soviets have already invaded Manchuria,
all of Korea,
and the Japanese island of Hokkaido.
Placing all of them
under a communist puppet regime.
So this Cold War stand off
is now transferred to a divided Japan.
The borders drawn simply wherever each army
invaded farthest.
In our timeline,
Japan completely dismantled its military.
That wasn't because of the US.
We actually wanted to rebuild the Japanese military
as a powerful ally against the communists.
It was Japan,
who suffered so much shame from the loss,
that it dismantled its own military
to never be an aggressor again.
Well,
because Japan was an island,
this wasn't too much of an issue.
And the US focused on Korea instead.
But in this alternate timeline,
The US isn't going to be so easy
on Japan's peace effort.
The northern Japanese
are Soviet puppets.
And the US would rebuild Southern Japan's military
to be a buffer
against any further communist movement.
So would this play out like the Korean War,
with a conflict between North and South Japan?
Hard to say.
Northern Japan has a much smaller population
than the South.
Being cold and all.
And it's hard to say what politics
would drive a war between the two.
For a sizeable amount of the Cold War,
It's likely that Japan would just be divided
between North and South.
As for the legacy of the Pacific war?
The invasion of Japan
would be remembered in the minds
of the American public.
It would be seen as the most ruthless fighting
it its short, half year of combat.
Casualty estimates are...
...tricky
To say the least.
As many people who did the estimates
had motives for the numbers they've used.
Death toll estimates
range from 100,000
to 800,000
For comparison,
the US suffered 400,000 deaths
in the entire war.
These numbers would be transformative
to the US public.
If hundreds of thousands died
simply because Japan didn't surrender,
then that creates scars for generations.
It's likely the US
isn't so forgiving
against Japan after the war.
Operation Downfall
would have been the most complex land invasion
ever achieved.
It would have extended the war
for at least another year.
And continued the battle between the two countries
far after Tokyo surrendered.
Millions of Japanese probably would have died
in the bombing attacks,
militia movements,
famines, and disease
that would have came from the war.
Hundreds of thousands of Americans
probably would have lost their lives
and never raised families.
Thankfully,
for,
whatever reason,
be it the bombs,
the Soviet invasion,
or both,
the Emperor surrendered when he did
and spared everyone
that phase of the war.
Of course,
we'll never know, a hundred percent,
what could have happened,
but it's fun to theorize.
This is simply just one, possible scenario.
What do you think could have happened
if America invaded Japan?
Say in the comments.
(Warning: Highly paid special visual effects in the next scene)
This is Cody
of Alternate History Hub.
(Soooooo much money poured out into these special effects. Don't judge!)
"Fin"
(Cody's post-credit words)
Thanks for watching.
If you're still interested in the effects of war,
the "Why not Nuclear War,"
Check out my friends at Life Noggin
who made a video about nuclear winter,
and if you could survive it.
In fact,
just go check out their entire channel.
I know this is a collaboration for one video,
but, their content's great.
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(Disclaimer: English subtitles created voluntarily.)