Yeah. All yours. All yours. Well this set of data are not exactly very pretty but I would say that it still showed that
the domestic demand is currently pretty weak and does warrant more policy easing. So ask these surprise interest rate cut this
morning seems to be suggesting policymakers are concerned and they want to make a gesture 10 basis points as almost like not a
big deal right. It's a small gesture but at least it shows that they care. But if you look at the IP for example industrial
production that seems to be much weaker and at a time when exports was still holding up relatively OK. That seems to be
suggesting that domestic demand is particularly weak. At the same time retail sales I think that's a bigger mess compared to
to FII and also IP. And this is saying that consumer demand is so very very vulnerable at the moment and it does require more
stimulus. So it doesn't seem that well. One pillar to your point was exports right. Industrial production. That doesn't seem well
that's going to go away because of the slowdown happening. And you're already seeing signs of that now. What. Where. Where.
Where do you see growth now. Year with this. I mean just ballpark really of where you think you might need to revise your
forecasts. Our annual forecast currently is standing at what's real GDP forecast at three point five percent. So the first half
was a 2.5 because we had a four point eight and zero point four. But then in the second half we're expecting close to 4 percent
in the third quarter close to 5 percent in the fourth quarter. So in the way this has still has some assumptions based on the
fact that we are already expecting a reopening after the completion of the 20th Communist Party Congress in October. If
that does happen I would say that there is a good chance we still get a three point five percent for the full full year.
OK that's a that's a big assumption Helen. And I wonder the fact that we saw these policy cuts here today should I assume that
the CBO see you know in terms of priorities and what's on their agenda is supporting growth still the big theme.
Well there certainly is. The PPACA has a very important policy target that includes a gross stability you know job market
growth as well as inflation stability. But at the moment I would say that they are current priorities should be shifting
definitely more towards the growth supporting part. But if judged by the money. The third quarter monetary policy report
that was released last week it seems that they still have some lingering concerns about structural inflation. Well in our view
core CPI inflation is already as low as zero point eight percent even lower than what we see in Japan. I don't know why that and
we still have to be so worried about inflation at a time when domestic demand is so weak. So it's good to see that they're
finally cutting a bit despite the fact that you know the US is still hiking.
So should I be worried about capital flows outflows increasing that pressure.
Well I would say that at the moment you know judged by the most recent empirical evidence there doesn't seem to be a lot to
worry about. At a time when current account surplus still at an all time high because of the very high trade surplus. And though
the ones that we have seen in the past a few months were so high and in our view as much cost by the recessionary you know
inflate in pressure from within China the massive balance to weak and employed was actually extremely weak. And that was the
reason why we end up with some very high trade surplus and the current account surplus.
And at the same time very little pressure in effects clearance and settlement. And therefore I don't necessarily think that
even if China cuts rates we're going to see too much pressure on the exchange rate front. I want to ask your thoughts about
property and what they do about this. Obviously private investment is falling. You see that wood prices themselves
falling. Is there a magic pill and how long do you think we'll be in this
sort of book before we see some semblance of a recovery. Well I'm afraid that we're not expecting any silver bullet to be
taken at the moment. In fact we think that the central government is most likely going to stay still while encouraging
local governments to help more with about Dell falling ensuring the delivery of those unfinished projects. So under such
circumstances unfortunately I think the best we can expect is probably the ongoing construction of residential properties
picking up the pace a little bit in the near term. But in the medium to long term I'm afraid that the you know the home sales
and also the land sales may not necessarily see too much improvement. And therefore we are hoping that there could be
more top down measures coming from the central government. And hopefully we can see a little bit of improvement you know with
with more confidence coming back after the completion of the CPC so that we can have a better picture that may include for
example the establishment of a stabilization fund. Why. Why do you think that is. Why do you think we haven't seen more
forceful measures from the central government. I think that's a key new ones here.
Well I think the central government is still very much you know holding on to the idea that housing is for residential purposes
not for speculating for purposes. It's called fungal Patel. This has been in place since 2016 and presidency has been sticking to
this particular you know principle for a very long time. So even at a time when you are looking at the the property market
turmoil going as far as what we saw recently CBI C P VIX more everyone is still very much starting their response with the
same principle and under that principle. That doesn't mean that they could do
more from the central government's perspective in our view. They should and they could. But at the moment we still have seen
their little.