There’s currently a ton of hype over Apple’s brand new M2 MacBooks,
and that’s why we’ve already ordered 4 M2 MacBook Pros for our in-depth comparisons,
but we’re already seeing reports about Apple’s higher-end M2 Pro and M2 Max MacBook Pros going
into production very soon, and based on all of my research, I have a pretty good feeling that
these 14 and 16” MacBook Pros are gonna be A LOT more powerful than expected.
So in this video, I’m gonna explain why I’m now fully convinced
that Apple’s M2 Pro and Max chips will actually be built on TSMC’s brand new
3nm process node technology, contrary to the mainstream belief that they’ll be based on
the M2 chip’s 2nd-gen 5nm chip technology that everyone’s expecting.
And yes, I know that sounds crazy because it’s the complete opposite of what Apple did
with their M1 chips, where the entire lineup was based on the same 1st-gen 5nm node, but trust me,
by the end of this video, I think you’ll be convinced as well, so let’s get started.
First off, I wanna provide evidence from multiple sources that TSMC’s
3nm chip tech should be ready in time for the launch of Apple’s M2 Pro and M2 Max MacBooks Pros.
Back in March, Mark Gurman reported that Apple will likely not launch the
new 14 and 16” MacBook Pro models until 2023, and just a couple of weeks ago,
he mentioned that they could launch either at the end of 2022, or in early 2023.
Now in my opinion, I think early 2023, specifically at a Spring event
makes the most sense for the launch of these MacBook Pros,
and that’s because I fully believe Apple’s Fall events will be consumed by the release
of the redesigned M2 mac mini, the M2 iPad Pros and potentially even the new Mac Pro.
So to me, it makes the most sense for the new MacBook Pros to get revealed
in the Spring of next year because I fully believe that Apple is switching
to an 18-month or 1.5-year timeline for Mac updates.
And I’m confident in this because Apple revealed their M2 chip around 18 months after the
original M1 chip reveal in November of 2020, and we already have many rumors from multiple sources
that the M3 chip is gonna be revealed at the end of 2023,
which will also be around 18 months after the launch of the M2, hence an 18-month timeline.
And as we know, the M1 Pro and M1 Max chips were revealed in November of 2021,
and 18 months after that lands perfectly in the Spring of 2023.
But moving to the actual chip side of things,
back in April, Mark reported that there’s already evidence
of Apple internally testing the new M2 Pro And Max chips, with up to 12 CPU cores and 38 GPU cores.
And that actually confirms a report from 9to5mac in March
claiming that Apple’s working on two Mac mini’s, one with an M2 chip for launch later this year,
and another with an M2 Pro chip with a 12-core CPU, exactly what Mark Gurman reported.
But the biggest bombshell leak came from Jeff Pu just a couple of weeks ago, claiming that
TSMC will be starting mass production of new 3nm M2 Pro chips later this year.
Yes, he actually said 3nm chips in mass production THIS YEAR,
which would be perfect for a Spring 2023 launch.
And at first, I had trouble believing this because the entire M1 family of chips was on the same
1st-gen 5nm process node, so why in the world would Apple build half of the M2 family of
chips on a 3nm process, and half of them on the 5nm process like the regular M2 chip.
Well, I came up with four pretty good reasons for Apple to do this.
First of all, if the M2 Pro and Max chips are based on the same 5nm node that the M2 chip
is based on, then the performance might be quite disappointing because the IPC
improvements are pretty minimal on the M2, with most of the gains coming from the extra GPU cores.
And now for the second reason, TSMC’s 3nm technology is a major breakthrough
as I’m gonna show you guys in just a minute, which means that it’s also quite expensive..
And the key point is that whenever a breakthrough chip node gets released like the 3nm chip,
the yields on those chips are pretty low since the technology to make them is brand new.
So it actually makes the most sense to debut a new process node on a product that doesn’t
sell in massive volumes, making a 3nm launch perfect for Apple’s higher-end
and expensive MacBook Pros, especially since that’s the target market that actually cares
about having the highest performance which a new 3nm process node would give!
So because of that, I came up with a very interesting theory. What if Apple
intentionally wanted to split up their M2 family of chips between 5nm and 3nm-based process nodes?
And why would they do this? Well, because
Apple knows that their lower-end Macs like the M1 MacBook Air and base M1 MacBook pro
are the best-selling laptops in the world.. and if these chips were based on 3nm tech,
they literally wouldn’t have enough yield left over for their high-end M2 Pro and Max chips.
So by building their brand new basic M2 chip on the already existing and mature
5nm process node from TSMC and giving it to all of their high-volume low-end products like the
new M2 MacBook Air, the base MacBook Pro, likely the upcoming Mac mini and the future
iPad Pro and iPad AIr models, they would be ensuring that their higher-end Macs
have as many brand new 3nm chips as they need to account for the low initial yields… and then
later in 2023, they could finally bring 3nm to the low-end Macs when the yields have improved.
And from a design standpoint, Apple has always started their chip designs with their iPhone chips
and scaled them up to their larger iPad chips, but now that the Apple Silicon
transition is about to complete.. What if Apple switches to doing everything in reverse?
What if they start their chip design with the M2 Max die built on the brand new 3nm node,
and then they simply combine two of these dies to create the M2 Ultra chip,
or four of them to create the M2 Extreme destined for the Mac Pro… while at the same
time cutting the M2 Max in half to create the M2 Pro chip just like they did with the M1 Pro?
And then on the flip side, they can scale the M2 Max down to create the new M3 chip,
because I believe it’s much easier to scale down than it is to scale up.
And then they can take those same cores from the M2 Max
and scale them down further for the new A17 chip design going into the iPhone.
So you basically have an entire array of chips based entirely on the single M2 Max die,
requiring the least amount of R&D possible and saving cash.
And if you’re not convinced yet, that the M2 Pro and Max chips
will be based on 3nm, here’s the nail in the coffin.
If Apple’s chips are truly on a 1.5-year timeline and Apple chose to go with 5nm again
for the M2 Pro and Max chips, then these high-end chips wouldn’t be built on 3nm
until the Fall of 2024 which is honestly way too long, and I’ll prove it to you.
TSMC just had their Technology Symposium event for 2022 where they revealed their updated roadmap for
their chip nodes, and guess what, their brand new 3nm N3 node is in their 2022 timeline,
with TSMC confirming that N3 is on track to start high volume manufacturing in the second half of
this year, with actual chips set to get delivered to customers in early 2023, perfectly fitting
the 18-month timeline for when the M2 Pro and M2 Max MacBook Pros should get released.
But wait.. They added a disclaimer…
“This technology is mostly aimed at early adopters like Apple who can invest in leading-edge designs
and would benefit from the performance, power, and area advantages offered by leading-edge nodes. “
So why in the world would Apple NOT adopt 3nm for their M2 Pro and M2 Max chips if 3nm is actually
gonna be ready right on time for launch? Do you really believe they would let their competitors
adopt 3nm first while they wait another 18 months until Late-2024 for the M3 Pro and Max chips?
Well, I don’t, especially since there are rumors that Intel is delaying
their Meteor Lake chips until the third or 4th quarter of 2023,
the same chips that are supposed to partially utilize TSMC’s new 3nm process node.
And that Intel delay means more 3nm chip yields
for Apple’s M2 Pro And Max chips coming in early 2023.
So hopefully all of that was enough to convince you
that Apple’s new chips will be based on 3nm tech, but now let’s finish off with
why this is gonna be a MASSIVE deal for those new high-end MacBook Pros.
But first I wanna give a huge shoutout to our brand new M2 cubed chip design,
that you can find in our merch shelf below,
and make sure to use the coupon code “M2CHIP” to save 20% on ALL of our merch.
First of all, TSMC expects a 25-30% reduction in power usage with 3nm compared to 5nm,
which is massive, allowing the chips to run a lot cooler and save battery life.
And on the flip side, they expect 10-15% more performance, and that’s not even counting
Apple’s own upgrades they can make like redesigning the actual cores,
increasing caches, adding in faster RAM, and adding in more cores.
But by far, the biggest benefit is the brand new N3 Finflex hybrid technology that TSMC
just announced, which for the first time ever, allows them to split their N3
nodes into three different options, one with 3-2 fins for maximum performance,
one with 2-2 fins for a good balance between performance, power efficiency and density,
and then a 2-1 fin for ultra power efficiency with the lowest power consumption and highest density.
And the best part is that Apple will be able to combine those three varieties of N3 onto the same
die for the first time ever, which could drastically improve performance and efficiency
since the current N5 node is set to 2-fin across the entire die with no fine-tuning allowed.
So there you guys go, that’s why I think the new M2 Pro and Max
chips are gonna be based on TSMC’s 3nm process, and if you disagree with me,
let me know down in the comments below, but if you enjoyed the video,
click the circle above to subscribe. Thanks for watching and we’ll see you in the next one!