Michael Cohen, President Trump’s former personal lawyer and fixer, pleaded guilty to to eight
federal charges involving $1.4 Million dollars of tax evasion.
But that wasn’t all:
Mr. Cohen pled guilty to two campaign finance charges.
What he did was he worked to pay money to silence two women who had information that
he believed would be detrimental to the 2016 campaign and to the candidate and the campaign.
It was a stunningly direct admission, given that Cohen and the president previously told
several conflicting stories about these payments
First, Trump said he didn’t know anything about his lawyer, Michael Cohen, paying of
Stormy Daniels, but then the story changed.
Michael would represent me and represent me on some things.
He represents me — like with this crazy Stormy Daniels deal he represented me.
And Rudy Giuliani, changed that story again:
Having something to do with paying some Stormy Daniels woman $130,000?
I mean, which is going to turn out to be perfectly legal.
See, the crux of the Stormy Daniels scandal isn’t was never the alleged extramarital sex between
a porn star and the president.
It was the money.
Congress passed a series of campaign finance and ethics laws in the 1970s, prompted by
Watergate, and Nixon’s resignation.
The intent was threefold: to prevent corruption, to make government open and transparent, and
to limit influence from special interests.
And it was these laws that were violated when, in late October 2016, Cohen delivered $130,000
dollars of hush money to Stephanie Clifford — better known as Stormy Daniels.
Campaign finance laws limit contributions and require candidates to report them to the
Federal Election Commission.
But this money was never properly reported.
Cohen originally argued that he didn’t need to report it, because “it was not a campaign
contribution.” But from the beginning it was hard to argue
that the money wasn’t, on some level, being used to influence the outcome of the election.
For one, the timing of the payment is extremely relevant, it came just weeks before the general
election, and on the heels of perhaps the Trump campaign’s biggest scandal:
“And when you’re a star they let you do it.”
“You can do anything”
“Whatever you want”
“Grab ‘em by the pussy”
[laughter]
At the time, campaign finance experts say that the timing raised questions, and it
“strongly suggests it was related to the election.”
Cohen also negotiated the payment using his Trump business email, another campaign
finance violation.
Cohen already pleaded guilty, but what does this actually mean for Trump?
Well first, it’s worth noting that sadly, the Trump campaign’s failure to disclose isn’t
unique.
More than one third of candidates running in primaries on June 5 didn't file on time
or make public their financial disclosures.
So, while a formal complaint was filed in January 2018, the FEC is both notoriously slow, and historically
gridlocked when it comes to acting on such cases.
According to one analysis by the Center for Public Integrity, it is very likely that the
FEC won’t rule on the complaint until after the 2020 presidential election, so it’s
possible Trump wouldn't even be president by the time they make their call.
The most likely end result, if one is ever reached that finds Trump’s campaign at fault,
is a fine.
And fine amounts are only small fractions of what campaigns spend in elections.
In 2016 --- when Trump ran --- the average fine was close to $20,000.
By comparison, Trump spent $322 million on his campaign.
And politicians regularly just ignore these fines. They face very few consequences.
The FEC has failed to collect $1.3 million dollars in fines from more than 160 candidates
or committees.
In fact, campaign finance violations are far more likely to be enforced through criminal
investigations, like the one that centered on, and ultimately felled, Cohen
That may be the reason that Trump and his lawyers have been so cavalier about the scandal.
But now that Cohen, who once said he’d take a bullet for Trump, has pleaded guilty, that
attitude may change.
Cohen is likely going to jail for these crimes.
But the biggest unanswered question is whether the President, is also accountable for them.
Just after the guilty plea, Cohen’s lawyer wrote he “testified under oath that Donald
Trump directed him to commit a crime.
If those payments were a crime for Michael Cohen, then why wouldn’t they be a crime
for Donald Trump?