In a slight tweak to our Sensible Transfer series, we use today’s video to ask: who
could be the next head coach of Borussia Dortmund?
Having spent big in the summer and recruited some of the most exciting talent in Germany,
Borussia Dortmund still don’t look totally convincing. Lucien Favre has yet to sway the
growing dissenting voices, especially having relinquished the title last season to a comparatively
weak Bayern. While Favre’s reputation for tactical astuteness, developing young talent,
and somehow defying the xG models is well-deserved, his time at Dortmund has only yielded the
DFL-Supercup and his job is reportedly under threat.
So, if Favre is sacked, perhaps even during the Winterpause, who are the stand-out prospects
to replace him?
Dortmund would likely favour a coach who values a strong pressing game and a quick, incisive
style of attacking, who can work with young talent and develop it, and who is used to
working in German football. There is no ideal candidate, but we think we’ve identified
three possible coaches who could occupy the Dortmund dugout successfully.
Not one for the Winterpause, in truth, because why would Rose leave a Borussia Mönchengladbach
side who are in the hunt for their first title since 1976/77? Rose has breathed new life
into the classic Gladbach style of fast, attractive football and a core of younger players, the
approach that made them the darlings of German football during the 70s when they regularly
contested the title with the Bayern Munich machine. However, sustained success for Rose
is unlikely at the Borussia-Park as they cannot really compete financially with the two power-players
in the league, Bayern and Dortmund, and so a move to Dortmund could be attractive at
the season’s end.
Rose is a graduate of the Red Bull coaching machine. He worked under Jürgen Klopp at
Mainz and, like Klopp, started coaching at the club. He then joined Lokomotiv Leipzig
for a season, before moving to Red Bull Salzburg, initially working with the youth system. He
became head coach of the main team in 2017, winning two Austrian Bundesliga titles and
reaching the semi-finals and then the Round of 16 of the Europa League, before succeeding
Dieter Hecking at Gladbach in the summer.
Gladbach have generally fielded either a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-1-2 this season.
Rose likes his team to win possession back through an aggressive press and then break
at pace, using the running ability of players like Marcus Thuram and Breel Embolo to stretch
defences. They are adept at generating wide overloads, with full backs pushing high, the
midfield double pivot moving across to assist, and a mobile front line who are quick enough
to assist in build-up out wide then move into attacking positions centrally.
Gladbach press heavily out wide against some teams, looking to provoke turnovers by swamping
the wide areas. They’re also adept at holding their 4-2-3-1 position centrally, though,
and stopping up the middle of the pitch if teams want to attack centrally. Rose tends
to employ similar pressing triggers across games, but is definitely capable of adjusting
the overall approach based on the opposition.
Stylistically, Borussia Dortmund are more possession focussed in deep build-up than
Rose’ Gladbach, but the fluidity of the front four would suit him, while Dortmund
can field a solid midfield double pivot or use Julian Weigl as more of a play-making
option. Rose would probably instigate a more assertive press, but this is a move that would
fit manager and squad – it’s just unlikely at this point in the season. After that…who
knows?
Here’s how Dortmund could line up under Rose.
The first of two out of work suggestions, Roger Schmidt is also a product of the Red
Bull conveyor belt, again at RB Salzburg, following a career in lower league German
football including a stint at Paderborn. He managed RB Salzburg from 2012-2014, quickly
impressing with a style predicated on intensive pressing, counter-pressing, and extreme verticality
in the 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 now synonymous with Red Bull sides. Having won the Austrian Bundesliga
and the Austrian Cup in 2013/14, Schmidt then took this style to Bayer Leverkusen in the
Bundesliga, with mixed success. He took Leverkusen to fourth place and the Champions League in
his first season, improved by one place next season, and was then sacked in March 2017
with his side struggling.
Schmidt has got a reputation for being aloof and has also run into controversy, not least
in 2016 when he was sent from the touchline but refused to go, leading to a suspension
of play for eight minutes until he agreed to depart. These issues could make him an
unattractive candidate to German sides, but there’s no doubt his style of football can
be successful – he also helped turn Julian Brandt into a huge talent during his Leverkusen
tenure.
Schmidt’s sides tend to use the 4-2-2-2 that looks like a 4-4-2 in a defensive pose.
He prefers inverted wide players who drift inside and act as the creative hubs of the
side, ahead of two deep sitting midfielders who protect the flanks as the full backs make
overlapping surges forwards. He likes all-purpose strikers, generally, who can press, contest
aerial balls, and drop off to facilitate attacks.
Schmidt’s pressing system is complex and highly energetic. His love of counter-pressing
means that his sides will often look to go very direct from the back, not contest the
ball, and then surge to counter-press having ‘lost’ possession in the first instance.
This can be a very effective attacking method.
Defensively, Schmidt likes his teams to be horizontally compact, while pressing intensively,
using the touchline as an additional defender and marking passing lanes as well as generally
orientating by man – although they will press towards the ball in certain situations,
such as boxing in a wider centre back and seeking to turn the ball over high and wide.
It’s a complex system that relies heavily on the players understanding and being willing
to execute a physically and mentally demanding style, but it can be hugely effective.
He’d have to work out Dortmund’s striking situation, as none of the players are an ideal
fit for how he likes his forwards to play. There could be an interesting, freer role
for Jadon Sancho though, alongside Paco Alcacer. Here’s how a Schmidt-coached Dortmund could
line up.
Pochettino is definitely one of the biggest names currently not in a job at the moment,
and he’s our pick to take over the reins at Borussia Dortmund. While language issues
and a lack of experience of German football could count against the Argentinian manager,
almost everything else is in his favour. Charismatic and excellent at achieving player buy-in,
he is the coach perhaps most likely to recreate feel of the Klopp era. He’s a pressing coach,
has a strong track record of working with young players and, despite his lack of trophies,
took Tottenham Hotspur to a Champions League final and did superbly well in north London
despite the club’s financial priorities largely lying away from squad building.
Pochettino tends to prefer a 4-2-3-1, which would suit Dortmund’s current regular set-up,
although he did use a 4-3-1-2 more towards the end of his Spurs tenure to assist Harry
Kane and try to take some of the burden off the striker.
Pochettino seems to have a philosophy more than a particular system: he likes his full
backs to get high and his wingers to play in the half spaces as inverted wingers or
second forwards; he favours quick pass and move football in the final third, with overloads
generating opportunities to get players into space; and he likes his teams to press. In
attack, versatility is important, as players, particularly in the attacking four, should
be able to exchange positions with ease.
In midfield, Pochettino tends to favour a ball-winner and a press-breaking midfielder
who can carry the ball well and effect quick transitions; the departure of Moussa Dembele
did seem to presage some of Tottenham’s issues as Pochettino struggled to find the
right balance in midfield. Axel Witsel is not Dembele, but he is a superb all-round
midfielder who could take on some of that role, alongside either the passing of Weigl
or the ball-winning of Delaney.
Otherwise, the squad looks suitable for Pochettino’s style: aggressive full backs, though Hakimi
will likely return to Madrid after his loan finishes, and versatile and technical attackers,
with Alcacer a predatory striker who can drop off.
Here’s how a Pochettino-coached Dortmund could line up:
Pochettino is a proven high achiever, if not a winner yet, has the reputation and charisma
to establish himself at Dortmund, and will surely want his next job to be somewhere he
has a realistic chance of trophies. Appointing Mauricio Pochettino would be Borussia Dortmund’s
sensible move for both parties.