So does Joaquin Phoenix winning last night Best Actor drama at the Golden Globes
Significantly increase his chances of actually winning the Oscar
Oh it does but I don't want us to get too excited. There's one more test that he must pass
Because I think well, the odds aren't so overwhelmingly in his favor with this win
But comic book movies have become particularly divisive in Hollywood lately Joker being, you know
one of the most divisive and last night was kind of weird at the Golden Globes a lot of divisive divisive movies got
Vindication many of us were left scratching our heads over once upon a time in Hollywood
Rocketman and Judi winning their their categories, right and
That's how I think it's hard for us to understand it
But that's how some people feel about Joker taking home a win for Best Actor. So someone could just chalk it up
Someone could just chalk last night up to that, right?
It was a weird crazy night where a lot of niche fandoms got some recognition
But are we really going to do that with the Oscars? I could see Academy voters thinking that way. So what's this last test?
The SAG Awards that's gonna be where we really get a read on things and the SAG Awards are coming up there Sunday
January 19th and the SAG Awards of course are the actors of Hollywood and then the biggest voting bloc in the Academy
SAG Awards, by the way, even predicted the shocking Sean Penn Mickey Rourke upset a decade ago
and now that we see these patterns and we're all I think everyone's a lot savvy er than they were
Back then, you know, you know
When this commentary when you look back that shouldn't have been a surprise whatsoever
But you know, it was quite shocking when it did happen
Even Sean Penn in his speech famously
Said it he couldn't believe that he had he'd beaten Mickey Rourke out for the for the gold for the Oscar
Well, they're all gold. Well, this is not the SAG Award anyway
Overall, the winner of the Golden Globe for Best Actor drama has taken home the Oscar each time for the power decade at least
With one exception, right? This is where Terry Edgerton starts to get excited himself
And that's Jean Jean Dujardin for the artist
He won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a comedy or musical, but he wanted the SAG as well. So that's why
the SAG Awards are where it's all gonna really go down and turn at your turn is up for that not for that award as
Well, so on the 19th, we will find out when SAG crowns their best actor for the year
Between Phoenix and a very divisive electric role and Edgerton and a crowd-pleaser Elton John
No one can get upset a friend of mine actually who you know
Well, actually I think it was it was over the frozen song category and stuff and they were like I can't I can't be angry
Without John winning something. So I think you know, although I think Joker fans would find a way
But anyway, there could always be an upset, you know, it might be Adam driver. He could take the sack
How do actors feel about Netflix I think anti Netflix sentiment factors in heavily with the Golden Globes?
They can buy it. They can buy a seat at the table
But they could so far have been unable to buy Awards and the Oscars as well
We're only missing out on like that. Really
Well, I've got director but still it's not you know
the everybody was Netflix hasn't been able to break through but they might with the SAG because they employ so many actors and
Then driver could maybe even take home the Oscar. You can find it upset there. Although again with what whoever gets the SAG
It's probably gonna get the Oscar but still Adam driver. He got nominated for black clansmen Best Supporting by all three organizations
Golden Globes sag and the Oscars but again, that would be unusual
Whoever wins the SAG is probably gonna win the Oscar
I say probably because people hate Joker that much then people really hate it
But I think it's worth noting and this will help Joaquin Phoenix as well that he's never won an Oscar or a SAG Award
Right, despite several nominations for both. He did win the Golden Globe once for Best Actor comedy or
Musical and what do you know he lost the Oscar to Philip Seymour Hoffman and Capote?
Who'd won sure enough Best Actor drama that same? Yeah, so it's really really consistent now
Also furthermore helping Joaquin Phoenix. Is that competition Taron Egerton Adam dry
well
They're much earlier in their own careers, and they're gonna have plenty of time to get an Oscar later on
Whereas this seems like the right time for Joaquin, Phoenix, right?
He's already been nominated three times for an Oscar going back as far as 2001 for gladiator
How much longer are we gonna make him wait?
So walking Phoenix
He's a little bit of a gift to the comic book community because he has other
Elements which favor him to win and what maybe why he is the best shot Joker has at a major
Win at these awards shows because you get actors, you know
The community Hollywood is factoring and other stuff outside of the actual movie Joker and comic book movies
Because you know, I thought last night it looked like for a moment Joker was gonna get black panther or Mad Max fury road
Wear with those films they got major nominations, but they only won like in the craft and secondary categories
And of course earlier in the evening Joker did take home Best Score
Although that's a nice feather in its cap with the first female composer
I were to take home that Golden Globe, but again it really boils down to validation
69 percent on Rotten Tomatoes only for Joker so close to being rotten
For instance when I tweeted out last night
And I was so happy to see validation for Joker with this win some smart
Aleck tweeted back Oh Joker is a very highly respected film. It's not it's really again. As I said divisive that rotten tomato score is
ridiculous and I think by the way if you claim that once upon a time in Hollywood
I've gotten vindication last night the Golden Globes you got to give it to Joker as well
And I think they both did to be honest with you and that annoys me about once upon a time in Hollywood
Probably as much as it annoys some of you about Joker. But again, that's what happened
This would also give DC bragging rights that sometimes that even though it's only sometimes that they get it right when they get it
Right, they really get it, right
you know first the Dark Knight and now this but would
overall
This one would give hope to all genre films that they could win in the major categories
just as I think Jordan Peele winning our screenplay for get out was a step in the right direction, but still
And you know again Logan was nominated and when we want like the mage we want the major categories
I'm talking directing acting picture. That's really what we're looking for here
Now and also of course Heath Ledger one for the same exact role for the Dark Knight
But all of his wins were posthumous and I think to date that's been factored in as to why he won
I mean he was amazing, but I think you know that was it that was
Undeniably, and of course it was a factor and I think he's winning
Now also I think the Academy, you know will want to make up for the Nolan snow for the Dark Knight
No Best Picture nomination
No Best Director nomination and you might wonder well, maybe they'll feel that nominations for Joker in those categories are enough
You know debt paid, but I think one win would really help and just if you watch the talk-show scene alone
And I'm surprised they don't include it include that in the clip real last night
The the final interview with Mary Franklin that wasn't included in the clip reel, but maybe they're trying to avoid spoilers
I don't know. I think I think that's where if you watch that scene you it's undeniable that walking Phoenix deserves to win
It's just great and I think that this would be by the way the first win
For a leading role in a comic book movie Heath Ledger of course was supporting so that would be huge it would also help interest
Other actors into joining these franchises, maybe Robert Downey jr. Wouldn't have felt
It was a pipe dream to try and get nominated for Avengers endgame, although I think going up against Joaquin, Phoenix
it did seem it did make it seem more ridiculous than I think in other years it would have I
Thought I thought he had an argument for what he did overall for the MCU
But Allan will this help interest actors in comic book and comic book movies and genre movies?
But filmmakers just like Nolan
opened the door and I think people felt maybe it didn't really quite open after all because of the way things have progressed and that
The Dark Knight didn't quite get the recognition that it deserved from the from within the industry
but this will make it seem like you can and you know, it'll seem like
comic book movies and genre movies are a building block in careers instead of ways to you know to end them like
You know even Feige very much operates in his own camp
It'll make comic book movie seem like you can make them and be in them and still be very much part of tense a part
Of Tinseltown which is very, you know, it's very much a closed society. That's very tight
So that's important some of you might be like who cares if you worked in Hollywood you'd care
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