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Ukraine has been asking for heavy combat vehicles since the start of the invasion,
and it seems as if it's wish is about to come true. Western tanks could spell disaster for
Putin's invasion, which is why he's worked so hard to scare the west into not sending them.
At the start of the invasion Ukraine had around 2500 armored vehicles,
all of which were Soviet-era models. Generally outclassed by Russian equipment,
Ukrainian equipment was on the whole older and less capable, putting them at
a serious disadvantage. However, an influx of hundreds of western anti-tank missiles,
and the defensive nature of the initial invasion, helped to move the loss ratio
firmly in Ukraine's favor, with Russia taking significantly more losses per combat engagement.
Still, as a percentage of their total fleets, Ukraine was suffering catastrophic losses- with
some figures estimating that Ukraine has had nearly 100% of its starting fleet of
vehicles destroyed, damaged, or captured. Many of these would end up being repaired,
but of an even greater boon to Ukraine was the hordes of vehicles left behind
by retreating Russians. In short order, Russia quickly became the
largest donor of military aid to Ukraine- which is a terrible way of winning a war.
However, Ukraine is only capable of manufacturing small numbers of domestic armored vehicles due to
its small arms industry and the fact that a lot of it has been destroyed in the war. The small
number of defense plants in Ukraine were a top priority target for Russia, which on most days
can't hit the broad side of a barn from ten feet away- but when you have as many missiles as Russia
originally had going into the war, the odds are you're eventually going to hit what you're aiming
at. The taking of important industrial cities in the east also seriously hampered Ukrainian
manufacturing, as generally speaking the east is Ukraine's industrial sector and the west is mainly
used for farming. Unless they figured out how to make tanks out of wheat and barley, Ukraine would
inevitably be in serious trouble and no number of anti-tank missiles from the west could stop
that. Anti-tank missiles after all can't defeat entrenched infantry, nor take and hold ground.
At the start of the war, most of the west believed the Russian hype and was sure that
Ukraine would fall within days- weeks at most. This is why it's unfair to criticize the west
for not moving faster to provide aid for the nation- it makes no sense to send equipment
to an army in a fight it's inevitably going to quickly lose. At the start of the war,
the west's strategy was to make the Russian army suffer as badly as it could in its invasion,
not believing it could be truly stopped. Man-portable anti-tank missiles and air
defense systems accomplished this with great success, taking a massive toll on Russia's
armored forces and decimating as much as a quarter of its attack helicopter fleet. The
combat environment became so deadly for Russian helicopters that even today the mighty Ka-52, a
truly capable and fearsome attack chopper, is only good as an inaccurate aerial artillery platform,
forced to launch volleys of rockets in pitch-up maneuvers well outside the range of enemy manpads.
However, as the Kyiv offensive stalled out and then ended in a total retreat,
the world realized that Ukraine could actually win this thing. Or at the least,
it could hold out long enough, and inflict enough pain on Russia, that the nation would be forced to
settle for a very limited victory. The request for heavy combat systems was finally being answered,
though with disappointing results- instead of the battle tanks that Ukraine was asking for,
the US sent antiquated M-113 battle taxis and Humvees. European nations largely followed suit,
mostly sending artillery and some air defense equipment.
The west had entered a self-deterrent ouroboros cycle, intimidated by Putin's
nuclear rhetoric. And this was exactly Putin's goal from the start, and why he
made so many tv appearances talking around the possibility of using nuclear weapons without
ever confirming nor denying that he would use them in the Ukrainian conflict. Western
leaders collectively browned their pants at the thought of Putin going nuclear, and now every
single proposed shipment of western equipment was put under extreme scrutiny by the entire
NATO alliance. When the US provided HIMARS, some EU leaders thought it entirely too provocative,
which is why it initially only sent a dozen or so of the weapon system. This long-range artillery
however proved to immediately be incredibly effective, prompting the US to send more.
And yet HIMARS' effectiveness worked against Ukraine's wishes for more of the platform,
as well as serious hardware like western tanks. The mobile,
six-missile rocket artillery was able to deliver precision firepower that
devastated Russian logistics and command and control networks, killing many senior
Russian officials. Its high mobility then allowed it to escape Russian artillery
reprisals and attack helicopters hunting them down. The use of cheap plywood decoys led to
Russia claiming to have destroyed approximately 300% more HIMARS than the US had actually sent.
All this was putting Russia in a very bad position, exploited to great effect by the
September counterattack that retook massive swathes of the east. Putin once more amped
up the rhetoric, and in return, the West once more browned its collective pantaloons as news
anchors moaned about escalation in nightly broadcasts. This ensured that there would be
no chance of Ukraine getting the tanks it so desperately needed and wanted. Ukraine
simply couldn't win too hard against Russia, because it was hurting Putin's feelings.
What the escalation narrative fails to take into account however is that
Putin has already escalated multiple times in his war against Ukraine. More to the point,
Putin's nuclear rhetoric is exactly that- tough talking sabre rattling meant to scare westerners,
when in reality even Putin isn't stupid enough to turn this losing war nuclear. The US has already
promised catastrophic conventional consequences, and unlike Russia, its military actually... you
know, works. Plus, in order to have any real effect on the war Putin would either have
to use strategic nuclear weapons against major population centers, or dozens of tactical weapons
against troop formations. Either move would turn Russia into a global pariah, completely
cutting it off from the global community and destroying it economically and politically.
The west is finally sacking up though, and we have Britain to thank for it. For the last few months
it's been extremely clear that the west needed to act extremely soon if it didn't want to see
Ukraine's gains in September completely reversed in the coming spring. This is because Russia may
have suffered truly apocalyptic losses in men and equipment, but its stockpiles of both are
very deep. It may not be bringing the best gear to the fight by a long shot, but it's bringing
a lot of it- and Ukraine's losses are no longer being replenished by captured Russian vehicles.
In short, the west needs to act immediately if it wants to have
Ukrainian tank crews trained and prepared for spring fighting.
Poland, probably because it was the closest to the fighting and historically has been savaged
by foreign invasions, was quick to offer up its Leopard 2s to Ukraine- but it needed permission
from Germany. As the Leopard 2 is manufactured in Germany and exported under license,
Poland would need to secure permission to send the tanks to Ukraine as a term of its purchase
agreement with Germany, but also to ensure the flow of replacement parts for repairs
and maintenance. However, Germany was hesitant, much as the rest of the west, as no nation wanted
to take the lead in providing heavy equipment and being blamed for any potential- quote- escalation.
In effect, while Putin was bleeding the Ukrainians dry, Western leaders were
standing at the edge of the pool anxiously daring each other to be the first to jump in. Finally,
Britain said “hold my tea and stolen cultural artifacts” and plunged in feet-first,
offering up an entire squadron- or 14- of its Challenger 2 tanks.
The move immediately sparked a wave of outcry and whining from the Kremlin,
with Russian Federation spokesman Dmitry Peskov promising that Britain's Challenger
2's would “burn just like the rest”. Good luck with that bro, because now Russian tankers
operating mostly Cold War T-72s will be facing one of the best- if not the best- armored main
battle tank in the world. The Challenger 2 is legendary for its ability to take punishment,
a design feature that came about because of Britain deciding that the best way to win a
tank fight was to simply outsurvive everyone else on the battlefield and going heavy on the defense.
Now it appears as if the floodgates are slowly creaking open, with Germany under
extreme pressure to allow the export of NATO Leopard 2s to Ukraine. The vehicle is absolutely
critical for Ukraine, and the only realistic option to supply the nation with heavy tanks.
The reason why is because of logistics- there are approximately 2,000 Leopard 2s across Europe
in the various armies of the EU's militaries. The US has a comparable number of Abrams tanks,
and could certainly afford to send a significant number given that the only real conflict the US
faces- war with China- would see extremely little, if any, ground combat. However,
unless the US digs into prepositioned stocks, it would have to ship Abrams tanks all the
way from the US to Europe- and even if it sends from its prepositioned stocks,
like it has with the 50 Bradley IFVs it recently sent to Ukraine- then it still faces the task of
providing logistical support on the battlefield from an entire ocean and half a continent away.
The Abrams is a notorious maintenance-heavy monster, and that's no surprise given it's
one of the most advanced tanks in the world- but like most American equipment, it's a total prima
donna and only the world's richest nation can actually afford to operate it in large numbers.
This is why the Leopard 2 is integral to Ukraine. Logistics networks are local,
allowing for much faster, cheaper, and easier resupply and maintenance for Ukrainian
vehicles. Tanks damaged in battle could easily be recovered and shipped across the border to Poland,
where they could be fixed and sent back into battle in a matter of weeks. This is something
that without significant investment in logistics networks, the US simply could not do with the
Abrams- simply put, the time to start preparing to send the Abrams was when the war started,
not when Ukraine needs tanks on the front lines in two to three months.
Western tanks, whether they end up being more Challengers, Leopards, or even American Abrams,
are a nightmare for Putin and his forces. Currently, Russia is replacing its destroyed
T-90s, albeit extremely slowly. This means that the bulk of its armored forces consist
of Cold War era T-80s and T-72s, and most of the more modern versions of these have already
been destroyed or graciously donated to Ukraine by retreating Russians running for their lives.
This leaves Russian tankers facing the prospect of having to go toe
to toe with semi-modern western tanks, and we've already seen this movie back
in the early 90s during the First Gulf War. The comparison is actually incredibly apt,
because the west is unlikely to send its most modern variants, and instead send Leopard 2s
upgraded to around early 2000s levels at the most. But even if it sends its absolutely oldest models,
western tanks already proved their worth against their Soviet equivalents,
with kill ratios between the two sides being best described as hilariously one-sided.
The most likely variant to be sent to Ukraine is the Leopard 2A4, the most widespread version of
the tank. This model began production in 1985 and ceased by 1992, with all previous versions
updated to this standard. Featuring a digital fire control system and upgrades to its armor,
the 2A4 is definitely dated, but likely to fare far better than its Russian counterparts
as the nation is forced to dig deeper and deeper into its reserve stockpiles.
Whatever tank the west decides to send to Ukraine however, it need to decide to do
so immediately. As spring nears, a new massive Russian offensive is expected,
and Ukraine's stocks of armored vehicles are already running dangerously low. More to the
point, Ukraine is fighting a war against Russia on behalf of the rest of the world,
and further dithering on the West's behalf- here's looking at you, German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz- is doing nothing but costing Ukrainian lives, both civilian and military.
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Now go find out Why Russia Is Running Out of Tanks, or click this other video instead!