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NEIL: ALL RIGHT, YOU KNOW WITH,
RAY DALIO GOT INTO THIS IDEA
WITH,ONE BIG WORRY FOR HIM RIGHT
NOW IS WORLD TENSIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN PREMIER WORLD POWERS.
AGAIN, HE IT CITED FRICTION
BETWEEN OURSELVES AND CHINA.
NOT SO MUCH RUSSIA, BY WAY,
WHICH I FOUND INTERESTING WITH
THE UKRAINIAN WAR
NOTWITHSTANDING.
HARRY JOINS US RIGHT NOW, AMONG
THOSE EARLY ON THE CHINA THREAT.
AND ONE OF THE THINGS, HARRY --
GOOD TO HAVE YOU -- THAT YOU
HEAR FROM MR. CALL THE OWE IS
THIS REQUESTED THAT, YOU KNOW,
IF WE’RE NOT CAREFUL, WE COULD
STUMBLE INTO A WAR.
THE TECHS ARE RISING TO THE
DEGREE -- TENSIONS ARE RISING TO
THE DEGREE THEY ARE THAT ANY
SLIP-UP COULD MAKE MUCH WORSE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> WELL,ING I DISAGREE A LITTLE
BIT IN TERMS OF THE OVER/UNDER.
I ACTUALLY THINK IT’S MORE THAN
LIKELY WE WILL HAVE A WAR WITH
CHINA.
I SAY THAT, NEIL, BECAUSE YOU
CAN LOOK AT HISTORY.
HISTORY’S FILLED WITH ALL OF
THESE DIFFERENT SITUATIONS WHERE
YOU HAVE A RISING POWER LIKE A
CHINA THAT MEETS, I HATE TO SAY
IT, A RELATIVELY DECLINING POWER
LIKE THE UNITED STATES.
AND I SAY THAT JUST BECAUSE WE
COMPARE OUR POWER ADVANTAGES
AFTER WORLD WAR II.
COMPARED TO THAT, WE HAVE
DECLINED A LITTLE BIT.
BUT I THINK THE CHALLENGE WHICH
THE CHINESE UNDERSTAND IN THE
LONG TERM THAT THE UNITED STATES
DOES NOT WANT THEM TO DOMINATE
THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION.
THEY HAVE DECLARED THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA THEIR OWN SOVEREIGN
TERRITORY.
SO THAT’S A BIG DEAL, AND THAT’S
WHY I THINK THERE IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY WE HAVE A WAR.
NEIL: IT DOESN’T TAKE MUCH, AND
YOU’RE A GREAT STUDENT OF THIS
HISTORY, FOR SOMETHING TO DIG
THERER SOMETHING MUCH WORSE.
I MENTIONED ABOUT WORLD WAR I
AND THE ASSASSINATION OF
ARCHDUKE FERD IF DEMAND AND HIS
WIFE.
WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THEY
WOULD LEAD TO COMPLEX
RELATIONSHIPS THAT BROUGHT IT TO
A WAR, THE FIRST WORLD WAR.
IT’S HARD TO ENVISION WHETHER A
TRIP BY NANCY PELOSI TO TAIWAN,
FOR EXAMPLE, WOULD TRIGGER
SOMETHING LIKE THAT, BUT WHAT DO
YOU THINK?
>> ACTUALLY, I COULD SEE A VERY
REAL SCENARIO.
LET’S SAY, FOR EXAMPLE, THE
CHINESE DECIDE THAT THEY WANT TO
FLEX THEIR MILITARY MUSCLES AND
THEY START DOING MISSILE TESTS.
LET’S SUPPOSE THEY FIRE SOME
MISS SILLS THAT THEY WANT TO GO
OFF MIGHT BE 20 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF TAIWAN.
LET’S SAY THAT ACCIDENTALLY ONE
OF GUY DANCE SYSTEMS FAILS AND
IT LANDS IN DOWNTOWN TAIPEI?
THOSE ARE VERY REAL
POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD TRIGGER
A WAR.
TAIWAN RESPONDS BACK, THE UNITED
STATES STARTS MOVING FORCES TO
BACK TAIWAN, CHINA RESPONDS.
I MEAN, THIS IS HOW WAR WITHS
HAPPEN.
IT DOESN’T HAVE TO BE --
NEIL: NO, NO, NO, I SEE EXACTLY
WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT,
HARRY.
ONE OTHER THING, WE ALWAYS
ASSUME IN THIS COUNTRY THAT
CHINA LOOKS AT THE BOYCOTTS, THE
PUNISHMENTS THAT HAVE BEEN METED
OUT, SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA IN
LIGHT OF THE UKRAINE WAR, AND
PROBABLY FIGURES THERE BUT BY
THE GRACE OF GOD GO I, AND WE
DON’T WANT ANYTHING TO DO WITH
THAT, WE DEPEND ON THE REST OF
THE WORLD TO KEEP US THE
ECONOMIC AND MILITARY POWER WE
ARE.
SO THEY DON’T WANT TO RISK
PUSHING THINGS OVER THE EDGE
WITH THE UNITED STATES OR ANY
OTHER WESTERN POWER.
BUT WE MIGHT BE WRONGLY FEELING
THOSE ASSURANCES, HUH?
>> YOU KNOW, I AGREE.
I MEAN, IF YOU LOOK AT THE
STRUCTURE OF HOW CHINA HAS BUILT
THEIR MILITARY THE, I WON’T GO
TOO GEEKY, BUT THEY’VE BUILT IT
UP FOR A VERY POWERFUL FIRST
STRIKE CAPABILITY.
IN OTHER WORDS, WHEN THEY THINK
THINGS ARE GOING TO THE TIPPING
POINT AND MILITARY ACTION IS
PROBABLE, THEY’RE GOING TO
ATTACK IN EVERY DOMAIN POSSIBLE.
THAT MEANS CYBER STRIKES, THAT
MEANS UTILIZING THE MISSILES
THEY HAVE BUILT TO DESTROY OUR
SATELLITES, THE CARRIER MISSILES
THAT THEY’VE BEEN BUILDING FOR
30 YEARS TO DESTROY OUR CARRIERS
BECAUSE THEY REALIZE SORT OF
ATTACK TO WIPE US OUT IN ONE BIG
BLOW TO DETER US SO WE WOULDN’T
WANT TO MOVE FORCES 6-7,000
MILES --
NEIL: SORT OF LIKE THE WAY JAPAN
WAS THINKING WHEN, YOU KNOW, IT
ATTACKED PEARL HARBOR.
WE’RE NOT GOING ANYWHERE.
THIS IS KIND OF OUR MOMENT.
WE SURPRISE THEM AND STRIKE
THEM, WE’RE ON OUR WAY.
I KNOW IT’S A LITTLE BIT OF
MILITARY APPLES AND ORANGES, BUT
DO YOU THINK THAT CHINESE
LEADERSHIP IS SERIOUSLY HIKING
THAT THROUGH, THAT IT WOULD --
THINKING THAT THROUGH, THAT IT
WOULD ARE HAVE A CHANCE TO
DEFEAT THE UNITED STATES?
>> IT WOULD BE PEARL HARBOR ON
STEROIDS.
AND, NEIL, YOU’RE ON THE RIGHT
IDEA HERE BECAUSE THE CHINESE
UNDERSTAND THAT THEY’RE AT THE
TIP OF THEIR MILITARY AND
ECONOMIC POWER.
THINK OF IT THIS WAY, BY 2100
THE CHINESE POPULATION BECAUSE
IT’S GETTING OLDER AND NOT
REPLACING ITS POPULATION, WILL
DROP FROM 1.4 BILLION TO 570
MILLION.
THAT’S A DROP OF TWO-THIRDS.
THE U.S. POPULATION BECAUSE OF
IMMIGRATION AND, YOU KNOW,
ILLEGAL AND LEGAL -- WE CAN
DEBATE THAT ANOTHER TIME -- WILL
ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER.
THE CHINESE MAY SUR SURPASS US
FOR A LITTLE WHILE BECAUSE OF
DEMOGRAPHICS, BUT THE UNITED
STATES IS RIGHT UP THERE BEHIND
THEM.
WHAT I WORRY ABOUT IS THAT THE
CHINESE MAY THINK THIS IS THEIR
TIME, AND THAT’S SCARY.
NEIL: REAL QUICKLY, HARRY -- I
LOVE TALKING TO YOU BECAUSE YOU
LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE -- IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WAS GOING TO BE
THE START OF THE YEAR WHERE WE
WOULD ECLIPSE THE GROWTH OF
CHINA IN TERMS OF THE ECONOMY.
IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME WE
WERE GOING AT A FASTER PACE THAN
CHINA I THINK SINCE 1976.
NOW WITH THESE BACK TO BACK
CONTRACTING QUARTERS, THAT
DOESN’T LOOK LIKELY.
AND THE CHINESE SEEM TO BE IN A
BETTER ECONOMIC POSITION THAN WE
ARE.
HOW DO YOU THINK -- FORGET ABOUT
HOW WE’RE DIGESTING THAT, HOW
THEY’RE DIGESTING THAT.
>> WELL, I THINK IN THE SHORT
TERM THEY FEEL THE ADVANTAGE,
BUT I THINK IN THE LONG TERM
THEY SEE THOSE DEMOGRAPHIC
TRENDS.
THE ONE THING THAT HAS DRIVEN
THE CHINESE ECONOMIC AND
MILITARY POWER IS HAVING THAT
BIG POPULATION, HAVING LOTS OF
CHILDREN, BRINGING THEM OUT OF
POVERTY.
AND I THINK NEXT FIVE OR SIX
YEARS YOU WILL SEE THE CHINESE
BRING A LOT OF EFFORT TO
BRINGING THOSE HUNDREDS OF
MILLIONS ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF
CHINA9 INTO THE CITIES.
AS HOPPING AS THE UNITED STATES
DOESN’T CREATE A MASSIVE -- AS
LONG AS THE UNITED STATES
DOESN’T CREATE A MASSIVE DEBT