A Cold War between the United States and Germany, a Nazi flag on the moon, and an American pacific
empire? This is some of the weirdest consequences of the United States staying out of World War II.
By 1940, Europe and East Asia were aflame with war.
Germany had launched its brutal assault against France, taking the country in mere weeks.
A complete military disaster was only narrowly avoided thanks to the incredible efforts of the
British in the Dunkirk evacuation- though Hitler's own incompetence played a large role in that too.
With allied forces pinned against the sea, Hitler inexplicably ordered his Panzers to stand down,
relying on the air force to mop up the survivors and thus allowing their escape.
But the allies had lost their foothold in Europe, and Britain was increasingly looking
like the next target for Nazi invasion. Surviving World War I German veterans beamed with pride at
their conquest of Europe, even as Hitler turned his hungry eyes east towards the Soviet Union.
In Asia, Japan had launched a brutal war against China. The
small island nation desperately needed the manpower and raw natural resources of China
to fuel its dreams of empire, and with complete military superiority had led a
devastating attack against the splintered forces of the nationalist Kuomintang and
the Communists. They used chemical weapons with impunity, knowing the unsophisticated Chinese
couldn't hope to respond with their own while they slaughtered civilians and POWs by the thousands.
Despite a world in the grip of the most violent conflict of human history,
the United States teetered on the brink of neutrality. Its citizens remembered all too
well the brutality of World War I, and the hundreds of thousands who had returned home
with horrible wounds or not at all. The conflicts 'over there' were a European and Asian affair,
and had nothing to do with the United States.
The hope to ensure peace between all mankind through the League of Nations had failed, and now
Americans were more disillusioned than ever with the world. Why should they have to go fight other
countries’ wars, when they could simply remain at home safe and secure thanks to two big oceans and
one of the best navies in the world. For Americans suffering through the Great Depression, there
were simply bigger problems at home- everyone else would have to solve their own this time.
Isolationists in the US believed that the ongoing conflicts in Europe and Asia were the concerns of
the nations involved, and had nothing to do with the United States. Europe loved starting wars with
itself, hosting a new major war every twenty years or so- why would this be any different?
The conquest of East Asia by the Japanese was unfortunate for those involved,
but America and the rest of the western powers had themselves long exploited the Chinese. In the
minds of isolationists, the US should simply build up its military and remain neutral,
working to ensure that no navy could challenge America in the Pacific or Atlantic.
The America First Committee and similar organizations all preached a message of
isolationism and political neutrality, influencing the public through radio,
print advertisements, and big rallies in large cities. Celebrities of the day such
as Charles Lindberg and popular radio priest Father Charles Coughlin spread the message
of isolationism. Lindberg even lashed out at President Roosevelt, who publicly claimed that
the Nazis were a threat to democracy everywhere. Lindberg would go on to say, “These wars in
Europe are not wars in which our civilization is defending itself against some Asiatic intruder…”
This is not a question of banding together to defend the white race against foreign invasion”.
Turns out Lindbergh was a white supremacist who also claimed that “racial strength is vital”. He
even wrote a Readers Digest article stating that “...our civilization depends on a Western wall of
race and arms which can hold back... the infiltration of inferior blood.”
The America First Committee liked what it heard from Lindbergh and soon its leader,
Robert E. Wood, head of Sears Roebuck, invited Lindbergh to join the group and
preach the good news about white supremacy and isolationism across the country.
However, the Isolationist movement began to stumble thanks to Lindbergh himself. His previous
glory and fame for feats in aviation had already tarnished significantly due to his blatant racism,
but in a speech in Des Moines, Lindbergh announced it was time to “name names”. According
to Lindbergh, “The three most important groups who have been pressing this country toward war
are the British, the Jewish, and the Roosevelt Administration.” Pressed on the matter,
Lindbergh claimed that the Jews of all people should be fighting the hardest against war,
as in his eyes they would suffer the most. He then denounced the infiltration of the press, film
industry, radio and government by Jews. Lindbergh was immediately denounced as an anti-Semite.
Interventionists meanwhile preached their own gospel: the US didn't just
have a moral obligation to stand against Hitler, but a national defense obligation.
If the democracies of West Europe fell to Hitler, then this critical line of defense
against a powerful Germany would also fall and leave the US alone to face it in some future
conflict. If France and Britain fell, Hitler would be in control of much of the world's oceans
and the vast resources of the rest of the planet, as none would be able to oppose him.
President Roosevelt described the situation as “living at the point of a gun”.
Most interventionists believed that direct US involvement was inevitable,
but others called for a relaxation of the Neutrality Acts so that the US could instead
equip the western powers with weapons and not have to do the fighting itself. William Allen White,
chariman of the interventionist organization Committee to Defend America by Aiding the Allies,
claimed that the best way to keep the US out of the war was to arm Britain.
American opinion however was swiftly changing. In January of 1940, a public opinion poll
showed that 88% of Americans opposed declaring war against the Axis powers. In June, only 35%
of Americans believed they should even risk war by providing direct assistance to the allies.
However, France fell quickly after that and Britain came under all-out air assault,
as the Royal Air Force heroically fought the superior German Luftwaffe off. As the Battle for
Britain began, 52% of Americans now believed the US should risk war by aiding England, but as it
became clear Britain was holding off the Germans from invading, public opinion swung even more in
favor of joining the war. By April of 1941 68% of Americans favored going to war against the Axis.
On December 7th, 1941, the debate over America's entry into World War II ended. Congress declared
war on Imperial Japan with a nearly unanimous vote- only Montana's Jeannette Rankin,
a pacifist and the first woman elected to Congress, voted against the war. Germany
and Italy soon declared war against America, and history as we know it fell into place.
But what if America had stayed out?
The best way to tackle this question is to post two different scenarios at the same time.
In one scenario, the Isolationists win the battle of public opinion and the US
remains completely neutral- this means no military assistance to Britain as well as
no entry into the war. In the second scenario, the US continues providing assistance to Britain
and Russia but doesn't join the fighting itself- similar to how
the United States is handling the Russian invasion of Ukraine today.
In the first scenario, Germany's forces tighten the noose around Britain,
cutting it off from the overseas colonies shipping badly needed war goods to the island nation.
Though Britain had the superior navy, the German navy made great use of U-boats to
intercept British shipping. With shipyards in France and Norway under German control, and the
vast resources of mainland Europe largely under its command, Germany is able to slowly outgun the
British navy, as the Royal navy finds it more and more difficult to replenish combat losses.
In the skies, the same scenario repeats itself. A big part of the reason that the British air force
was able to fend off the Luftwaffe is because it was receiving steady resupply from America,
but forced to fight on its own means, the RAF slowly but surely begins to run out of oil, rubber
for plane tires, and even ammunition. Eventually it too is unable to replenish losses fast enough
to keep up with the Luftwaffe, and by the end of 1941, if not sooner, Britain's air forces are all
but defeated. Surviving planes are kept in reserve to respond to beachheads during a German invasion.
With the Royal Navy similarly attritioned, Operation Sea Lion is at last realistically
possible- and the fact that the British Isles are now a realistic military objective
leads Hitler to not launch an invasion of the Soviet Union.
At least not yet. Early in 1942 at the latest, German forces make landfall on Britain,
and Britain begins a desperate, but ultimately losing war of survival.
But what if the US had stayed out of the war, but continued to provide critical supplies to Britain?
This phase of the war would have remained largely the same, though losses in manpower
are harder for Britain to replenish than war materials. Ultimately an invasion of the British
homelands is delayed, but not indefinitely, and an invasion by 1943 is very likely.
Hitler does run the risk of bringing the United States into the war regardless,
but he may have taken a cue from history and learnt from Germany's past mistake.
This would mean that he wouldn’t aprove the unrestricted submarine warfare that
pushed the US into joining World War I. Instead Hitler shows patience as his air force and navy
slowly but surely reduce Britain's available manpower.
In the end, Hitler still invades Britain, and without US forces to help,
the island nation falls.
In Africa, Hitler's superior forces cut the British off from middle eastern oil early in the
war. Without US reinforcements, Britain is forced to stand alone against Rommel's desert armies,
to disastrous effect. While they put up a spirited defense, inevitably superior German resources
trump British resistance, and now Germany is left with its hand on the global oil supply. This
causes a great deal of concern within the United States- but the US can be self-sufficient if it
needs to be thanks to its own vast oil reserves. However, Hitler is now the most politically
powerful leader in history thanks to his ability to control the flow of Middle Eastern oil.
This victory ensures that the German war machine can run unopposed indefinitely,
completely overwhelming any would-be adversary.
In Eastern Europe, Hitler eventually breaks his cooperation pact with Stalin- but at a
later date than happened on our timeline. This is due to his need to mop up British resistance
on the home islands, but with Prince Edward as a puppet monarch on the British throne, Hitler
effectively controls most of Britain a year after the invasion. He can now divert the bulk of his
military to the eastern theater in anticipation of a massive assault against the Soviet Union.
What happens next depends on if the United States remained neutral,
or simply refused to join the war.
If the US remains neutral, then it never sends vast amounts of military
and humanitarian aid to the Soviet Union as Germany begins Operation Barbarossa. America's
assistance to the Soviets is an often overlooked factor in determining what would have happened
if the US never entered the war. The United States was in fact one of the main reasons
the Soviets were able to mount an effective resistance to the invasion in the first place,
as the US sent a whopping $180 billion in today's money to the USSR over a period of 4 years. By
comparison, the US has so far pledged only about $15 billion in total assistance to Ukraine today.
The aid the US provided included 400,000 jeeps and trucks, 14,000 airplanes, 8,000 tractors,
13,000 tanks, 1.5 million blankets, 15 million pairs of army boots, 107,000 tons of cotton, 2.7
million tons of petrol products, and 4.5 million tons of food. At one point nearly every truck the
Soviets operated was American, and nearly every Soviet soldier was clothed thanks to America.
Without this significant amount of aid, even vast Soviet industrial might would not be able
to stand against Germany's onslaught for long - specially if forces left to fend off an allied
assault from Britain were no longer necessary due to the island's pacification. Stalin's military,
atrophied by his vast political purges, absolutely crumples in the face of German assault,
and both its soldiers and population starve without American aid shipments.
Without hundreds of thousands of American trucks and vehicles, the Soviet war machine has to rely
on horse-drawn carts and marching on foot, while German mechanized forces outrun and outmaneuver
ever-retreating Soviet armies. Eastern Europe turns into a bloodbath for the communists,
and within months Moscow has fallen and Stalin and his government fled to the far east.
Germany does not pursue- as there is no need. It has taken exactly what it wanted
from the Soviet Union, the fertile and resource rich southwest of the nation. The Soviet Union
continues to exist as a puppet state, but things get worse for them because due to the crushing
defeat in Eastern Europe, Japan reignites the Russo-Japanese War and takes vast swathes of
Russian held territory in the far east for itself. After another year of fighting,
Russia no longer has a presence in Asia and Japan is left in complete control of the continent.
If America continued to supply the Soviets, the fighting would have dragged on for far
longer- but defeat was inevitable. With no need to secure France against invasion, Germany can
free up hundreds of thousands of troops to throw into the meat grinder that is Eastern Europe.
Eventually, the result is the same, and both Japan and Germany push the Soviets out of their
respective sphere of power and reduce the USSR to client-state status. Stalin vows never-ending war,
but he is hunted down by German assassins and a fascist Russian ruler is installed by the Germans.
In Asia though, our what if scenario gets even more interesting.
Japan's attack on the United States is what precipitated the nation joining World War II,
but if the United States had remained truly neutral, Japan may not have attacked at all.
The attack on Pearl Harbor was premeditated by the United States stopping shipments of
oil and rubber to Japan, seriously harming its plans for Asian conquest. Japan now had
only a few months worth of supply, which necessitated war against the United States
and the seizing of oil-rich European colonies in the south Pacific. But if the United States
had remained completely neutral, there's a chance war would have been averted- for now.
With the US still supplying Japan with oil, rubber, and other heavy industry resources,
Japan is free to continue consolidating its gains in China. Within a few years,
most of China becomes Japan's manufacturing base,
skyrocketing the power of the Pacific empire. This allows them to push Russian forces out of
the region completely, and begin the systematic conquest of the remaining, smaller Asian nations.
But the Philippines and other small holdings in South East Asia remain under US control.
Australia becomes the perfect base of operations to counter Japan's growing power in Asia.
In order to prevent Japanese hegemony in the South Pacific, the United States
moves significant forces to Australia, Guam, and the Philippines, drawing a red line in the
sand to Japanese expansionism. This is a situation the Japanese can ill abide,
as it places US forces within striking range of the most vital trade arteries
for the Japanese empire, and makes it possible for the US Navy to slowly choke Japan to death.
Inevitably, war between Japan and the United States breaks out. During World War II,
the US had a “Europe First” policy, and sent the bulk of its combat power to europe. However,
in this alternate timeline America is free to use the bulk of its military against Japan.
With Europe falling to the Germans, the US has pulled itself out of the Great Depression
thanks to the largest re-armament effort in human history, dwarfing even that of the
Germans prior to the Second World War. Japan meanwhile has not had the time to set up much
needed industry infrastructure in China, or hold onto it against Chinese partisans.
The US absolutely dwarfs Japan's military in the Pacific, and Japan is left with no choice
but to call for help from its European ally: Germany. Now, Hitler faces a tough choice.
He can declare war against America to relieve pressure on Japan, but it'll be years before his
forces can do much to actually threaten the US. Building a navy capable of crossing the
Atlantic and delivering troops to North America takes time, and Hitler has plenty of reasons to
not bother as he sets about building his glorious Third Reich. Further, thanks to Hitler's paranoia,
he has split up the scientists working on a nuclear bomb amongst several,
independent laboratories, severely slowing down Nazi Germany's nuclear weapons program.
With most of Europe's intellectuals taking refuge in America, the United States now has the greatest
concentration of engineers and scientists in the world, and has already produced several
nuclear bombs and is well on its way to building planes capable of reaching Europe from America.
Hitler can instead opt to break his alliance with Japan and declare a cooperation pact
with the United States instead. This will give Germany time to rebuild from its war of conquests
and consolidate its hold over Europe and the Middle East.
Racially motivated, Hitler has more in common with white Americans
than with the Japanese anyways, whom he sees as intrinsically inferior on the genetic level.
If America has remained truly neutral up to this point, it's possible that such a cooperation pact
does in fact take place. Such neutrality would have necessitated that President Roosevelt not
win re-election, and instead a much more isolationist and pro-German president take
his place. In this timeline, Germany has no reason to be in competition with America,
and instead as trade relations open up in the post war environment, the two might
become fast friends. This frees up the US to crush the Japanese empire in the Pacific war,
and ultimately declare hegemony over East Asia. The world is now ruled by two equal military
powers- the German Third Reich in Europe and the Middle East, and the United States of America in
the western hemisphere and east Asia. The two sides are ideologically opposed, fascism vs
democracy, but after their respective costly wars have little reason to fight each other.
Plus, simple logistics make such a war unlikely- one side or the other
would have to ultimately cross the Atlantic and land troops on the other's territory,
an impossible proposition without nearby staging points for an invasion.
Hitler's racial purges drive millions of refugees into the Western Hemisphere,
and the best and brightest amongst them bolster the American economy and industry.
The United States quickly becomes the 'brains' of the world, and in the decades that come
its scientific, industrial, and military edge over Nazi Germany grows exponentially.
Meanwhile, Hitler's racially pure Third Reich stagnates from a lack of diversity and innovation.
His fascist, oppressive rule has caused the world's best artists, engineers,
and scientists to flee for the democratic USA. The brain drain cripples the Third
Reich's ability to compete internationally against the growing might of America,
leaving an aging Hitler with only one choice if he wishes to ever topple the threat that a
much more powerful United States of America now poses: complete and total nuclear war.
Now go check out What If World War 2 Never Happened, or click this other video instead!