Under the pressure
of crushing economic sanctions,
Russia is straining to play
its own intimidation game.
This time, they are threatening to take
the International Space Station out of orbit
and hurtle it down to Earth.
The ISS orbits above the Earth’s surface
at an altitude of about 400 km (250 mi).
From end to end,
the largest spacecraft ever built
is 109 m (358 ft).
That means, including its solar panels,
it stretches the length of an entire football field.
And it has the volume of a five-bedroom house
to accommodate as many as 11 astronauts if needed.
The station wouldn’t exist if it weren’t for the 15 nations
that joined forces to build and use it.
Five different space agencies were involved in getting
all the nodes and modules of the station
off the ground and into orbit.
But its days in orbit could be numbered.
Dmitry Rogozin, director-general of Roscosmos,
posted a series of tweets that stated in part:
“If you block cooperation with us,
who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled deorbit
that falls into the U.S. or Europe?
There is also the option of dropping
the 500-ton structure to India and China.”
Could Russia really hijack the ISS
and turn it into a falling death trap?
Bombastic as it sounds,
the threat is not completely far-fetched.
Russia could even manage to do it
without the cooperation of the cosmonauts
currently onboard the station.
Right now, significant changes to the orbital pattern of the ISS
can't be done without the cooperation of Roscosmos.
These adjustments can be made by the thrusters
of two unmanned Russian Progress supply ships
or a Zvezda service module.
Without these necessary adjustments to orbit,
the ISS would be left to fend for itself.
This would put the station and the cosmonauts onboard
at risk of a dangerous collision
with large amounts of debris currently orbiting the planet.
On the other hand, the thrusters on these devices,
primarily used for delivering supplies and fuel or making repairs,
could be controlled to send the ISS out of orbit.
But surely the Russians wouldn’t endanger the lives
of its own cosmonauts.
Right?
Well, think again.
In November of 2021,
Russia tested an anti-satellite missile
on one of its own satellites.
This threatened the safety of all ISS crew members,
who had to prepare for collisions with the massive amounts of debris
generated by the explosion.
So with your doubts cast aside,
now would be a good time to look up.
Spot anything bright moving across the sky and getting bigger?
You could easily think that this is just a comet streaking across the sky
with its tail of colorful gas trailing behind it.
You’d be stunned by the sheer beauty of this sight.
Until you realize that it's the ISS heading right toward you.
The ISS passes over India, China, the U.S. and much of Europe.
So it would be at a high risk of impact in many parts of the globe.
However, Russia itself
wouldn’t have reason to worry about
self-inflicted damage in this case.
The station is made from tough, durable materials
like dense titanium, kevlar and high-grade steel.
But entering the atmosphere,
the intense heat and pressure could break it apart.
And as that gets underway,
you’d see fiery explosions of glitter and bright light.
This would be both beautiful, and a positive sign.
The station breaking into smaller pieces
could mean more impact sites.
But the impacts would all be significantly less severe
than if it remained intact.
Imagine cities like Los Angeles, London or Hong Kong
taking a direct hit from the completely intact space station.
It would leave a crater almost 1,300 m (4,265 ft) wide
and 470 m (1,540 ft) deep.
Anyone close to the impact area would be killed
or severely burned in the ensuing explosive fireball.
And the impact itself
could trigger a magnitude 6 earthquake.
Depending on where the strike occured,
you’d see tens of thousands of people or more die.
Millions could be severely injured or displaced by the destruction.
If all this unfolded,
it would damage the relationships between many space agencies.
And losing our only space laboratory currently in orbit
would certainly be a significant setback
to the future of space exploration.
But if there’s one silver lining,
this kind of maneuver could take several years to unfold.
Hopefully, this would give NASA and other agencies
enough time to react.
Maybe they’d be able to guide it directly
into the spacecraft cemetery located in Point Nemo,
the furthest region from land on Earth.
This would just be a little earlier than expected
as the ISS is set to retire and plunge to this spot in 2031.
Using the ISS as a weapon would be a disastrous event
that could endanger millions of lives.
But so would launching a nuke.
And that’s a story
for another WHAT IF.