you're wondering will the housing market finally crash this year
really how much higher can these prices get naturally the median list price is up by about 27%
since march of 2020 and in florida is up by approximately 40 percent so we experience
astronomical price increases in just a short period of time but here the recent national
headlines which may be indicating that we're at a pivotal moment signs of a brewing housing market
more sellers are cutting home prices home sales slip by 2.7% in march but are we really heading
towards the bust here in florida in this video we're going to review overall florida real estate
trends to understand what has happened over the last two years and then we will discuss
the outlook we're going to explore a few data points which will help us understand the current
situation we're in and then i'll provide you with my forecast thereafter i pulled data from
realtor.com which is publicly available data and pivot it in excel in order to get to the latest
real estate trends as of march 2022 so i'm going to reference the median list price and not the
average list price because i actually believe it's a better indication of what you're going to expect
to pay on average so the median price is the price in the middle of the data set but the average
price can be heavily skewed by few unusually high real estate prices so here's what we get
the us media real estate list price as of march is 404 thousand dollars the florida median price is
411 thousand dollars but these prices will differ depending on the location of florida right so
some areas that are more desirable will be more expensive but some other areas in florida are
going to be much more affordable let's look at the top five most expensive counties in the top five
least expensive counties and so if you're somebody that's just starting to shop here in florida
this list might actually be a good starting point for you we're going to plot these on a map and you
will see a pattern here you're going to notice that the most expensive locations are coastal
primarily in the south and southwest the most expensive place being the keys you've got miami
naples and sarasota county areas now maybe surprisingly to some walton county which is
on the emerald coast on the northwestern part of florida actually took the number two spot as the
most expensive county to live in but remember typically as you get further inland even in the
more expensive coastal counties you're gonna find more affordable options because most people are
going to want live closer to the water and that increases the demand which increases the price
now how has the population changed in florida many publications are saying that florida was
the number one place people moved to since the pandemic i can certainly feel the real estate
crease here in sarasota i tapped into public available data from the office of economic and
demographic research to understand the florida population growth year over year the last shared
data points were from april 2020 to april 2021. updated data will become available sometime later
on this year in october of this year apparently so we're just going to make some assumptions in order
to fill that gap from april 2020 to april 2021 the population in florida increased by roughly 360 000
people which is a 1.67% population increase now i've seen some comments on this channel
that talked about a 10% to 30% population increase in florida no guys it grew by less than 2 percent
year of a year during the stated time period but i do agree with you that in some parts of florida
the increase can feel so much larger when you look at the change in traffic and just overall activity
i would estimate an even higher growth pattern during april 2021 to april 2022 so this year due
to the fact that in 2020 there were so many covert restrictions right and so a lot of people were
hampered by lockdowns and didn't make the move in 2020. and so i wouldn't be surprised if the
population growth is north of 500 000 from april 2021 to april of this year but where in florida
did the majority of the people move to let's look at this chart that i created from the data points
i listed the top 20 counties that experienced the largest number of increases not surprisingly
the three largest metropolitan areas in florida experienced the largest population increases with
the tampa bay area leading following the miami area and next up is orlando and i'm sure a lot of
this has to do with job opportunities so where are people moving from according to the last available
u.s census migration data from 2019 few of the top places people have moved from i'm sure that these
data points will differ a bit since the onset of the pandemic but directly speaking it should
be a very similar flow not surprisingly the number one place people move from is new york due to many
reasons including more affordable lifestyle and lower taxes according to a survey that move.org
conducted with approximately 1 000 respondents the main reasons people have moved during the pandemic
is for family career lifestyle and economic factors with the secondary reason being better
weather lower taxes climate change political reasons better culture and lower cost of living
well that brings us to the florida real estate market projection this
is what you need to understand cash purchases account for approximately 30
to close to 50 of all real estate transactions in florida depending on the location so if there
is a slowdown nationally i just don't see it in florida anytime soon florida is becoming
a destination place not just for vacationers but those who are actually moving out of state
now of course not all places are equal in florida trends need to be looked at on a local level
so let's review real estate trends for sarasota to provide you with an example of how things are
just not slowing down in this area what you're looking at is coldwell banker's data dashboard
which is very visual nature so it's easy to absorb the information the information comes from the mls
so it's data that gets pushed into the coldwell banker dashboard and what i wanted to point out
is the average immediate sales price in sarasota county for single family homes so that's what i
have selected right now and that's really this line here and so what you see is that over time
there's been a gradual increase in the median sales price right and this is march of 2022
it's now at 463 000 where last year march it was 364 000 and so there is really no dip i mean
there's a slight dip here these fluctuations are very normal but in general this line here keeps
going up so the prices are continuing to increase this is another chart i wanted to point out to
you i find this very interesting it's the sales price list price ratio and essentially if it's
over a hundred percent and it's been over a hundred percent what it means is that the
homes are selling at above list price so multiple offer situations are still very common even for
higher end real estate properties here's another chart i wanted to point out average days on market
and that's also been declining as of march of this year the average day that a property set on
the market before it closed was 20 days buyers are trying to make their offer as enticing as possible
and that means closing as fast as possible in some case cases even waiving the inspection period
which is not one i would ever recommend you do and so now there is no slowdown felt yet here in
sarasota county you might say well interest rates are continuing to go up and that's going to impact
the housing market yes interest rates are up and some of you will now be priced out of the real
estate market and it is going to impact the real estate market also here in florida but you got to
remember that we have so many cash offers here that even if you take the non-cash offers away
there's plenty of offers coming in and there's other factors that will prevent a market crash in
florida in the foreseeable future got the supply and demand issue at large there's just too much
demand it's just not enough supply the number of cash transactions we just spoke about that
the fact that remote work is becoming very normal now people who are looking for no state income
tax, beaches and warm weather have really just two choices right and that's texas and florida
and a lot of people will prefer florida over texas so what i anticipate is a slower rate
of growth this year as more people are getting priced out of the market but the fact that we
have so many cash offers coming in multiple offer situations will continue just not the drastic rate
is going right now there may be a slight correction on the horizon but i do not believe it
will have a crash i actually believe that the real estate landscape in florida has forever changed
with the increase of remote work opportunities and a change in perception of florida people
are realizing that florida is a great place to live and not just for retirees what should you do
this is very much of a personal decision and you need to weigh the pros and cons carefully
before making a real estate purchasing decision unfortunately in today's market even rental
prices have skyrocketed making the decision to purchase versus rent even more difficult if your
a first-time homebuyer i suggest that you start off with a rent versus buy calculator which can
provide you with a direct understanding of when it will make sense to purchase versus rent now
there's some pitfalls when using the calculator as it does not take into account market trends
investment opportunities and your job situation for example so i suggest that you also speak to
a financial advisor who can help you navigate this further if you're someone planning to sell
real estate in a more expensive market to move to florida for more affordable living situation
the decision is far easier on you because you will save money and probably even make money on the net
real estate transaction this is a very tough real estate market guys i would say that many if not
most realtors do not like this frenzy either for a lot of reasons i would love to be able to tell you
just hold on a few months it will crash but i just don't believe it will given the data we covered
and the trends that we're seeing in florida if you have any advice to home buyers just leave
it in the comments section now if you're looking for real estate in sarasota county i would love
to partner up with you you can contact me call me anytime and if you made it this far in the video
thank you so much for spending time with me today i always appreciate it when you do take care