﻿The United Kingdom, comprising England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, was one of 28 members
of the European Union. As part of the European Union, the UK enjoyed a common economic market
with common customs for goods and services. That meant that trade flowed freely from the
UK to the EU, and the EU to the UK. Here’s an important detail for us, that also meant that
trade flowed freely between this part of the UK, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland,
another EU country. Goods also went freely across the Irish Sea between the UK and Northern Ireland
in both directions. Everyone was on the same team, and stuff just moved around.
But, as of the 31st of January 2020, the United Kingdom is no longer part of the
European Union. How would all these goods travel and be checked without membership in the common
market and customs union? Well, for three of the four parts of the United Kingdom (England,
Scotland, and Wales), the issue is limited. There is a body of water between them and
the European Union. But Northern Ireland shares a land border with an EU country,
the Republic of Ireland - by the way a super sensitive land border,
a land border with no border checks or formal crossings for very good reasons.
So, for the island of Ireland as a whole, there is a clear problem. If EU and UK regulations
change - if goods have different standards or are subject to different taxes - how can
these standards be managed across this border? This is a free-flowing border. In practice,
differing standards can’t be easily held. And this is an issue that goes way beyond
whether the widget that crosses from the Republic of Ireland into Northern Ireland
has met regulation or had tariffs applied. This is an issue with historical weight,
because this border has historical weight. The existence of a divided Ireland and the
constitutional structure of the United Kingdom hang in the balance. Oh, and human life.
The original plan was for all of Ireland to continue to swear oath and allegiance to the
British Crown. After the Irish War of Independence 1919-1921, the Free Irish State was created. In
practice, the free state comprised 26 southern and western counties of the Island of Ireland.
The remaining 6 counties opted out, and remained part of the United Kingdom as Northern Ireland. As
per the Anglo-Irish Treaty, the 26 counties of the Free Irish State would be a dominion of the Crown;
its politicians would swear an oath to the King. The oath went in part, “I do solemnly
swear…I will be faithful to His Majesty King George V, his heirs and successors.” (9)
Now imagine you’ve just fought a war against ‘his majesty’s’ government for an independent
Irish Republic, and now, having fought that war and pushed the United Kingdom to a treaty
which offers Irish self-governance, now you still have to pledge allegiance to the Crown
of the colonizer. To many Irish Republicans, this was unacceptable. Though advocates of
the Treaty emphasized the first part of the oath was to swear quote “true faith and allegiance to
the Constitution of the Irish Free State,” this was not enough to placate critics. The partition
of the Island of Ireland with Northern Ireland still in the UK was presented as a fait accompli,
and thus was considered by Irish Republicans as another difficult reality to accept. Differences
over the treaty and the continued influence of British monarchs and armed forces led to
the Irish Civil War between 1922 and ‘23. Forces of the pro-Treaty provisional Irish
government and anti-Treaty Irish Republican Army (IRA) clashed until pro-Treaty forces prevailed.
While still a dominion of the crown, the Free State of Ireland would drift further from the
United Kingdom within a decade. A leader of the anti-Treaty side of the Civil War,
Éamon de Valera, founded a new political party. This new Republican party would
pursue distancing from its dominion status through politics rather than warfare.
De Valera was selected by the Dáil as the President of Ireland’s Republican Council,
effectively Prime Minister of the Free State. Through his first term and reselection in 1937,
he would dismantle the Anglo-Irish Treaty, removing the oath of allegiance to the British
Monarch, weakening the crown’s power to deny Irish free state legislation,
and setting about an independent trading policy. After the sudden abdication of King Edward VIII,
the United Kingdom recoiled inward. A new Irish Constitution was opportunistically
adopted - the sovereign state would now simply be known as Ireland,
and it would replace the British monarch with a new head of state, the president of Ireland.
That constitution has remained as the framework of government for the Republic of Ireland today.
What was going on in Northern Ireland during the Irish Civil War? Well,
the fighting in the free state allowed pro-unionists to consolidate. The six
counties and their allegiance to the United Kingdom were solidified. A border was defined.
But south of this border were not exclusively pro-Irish Nationalists,
just as north of the border were not exclusively pro-United Kingdom Unionists.
The partition of the Island of Ireland repeated an often ill-advised practice
in history. Draw a border as it suits you, and hope for the best. The best did not come.
The creation of Northern Ireland condemned a minority of its population to second-class status.
While about two-thirds of Northern Ireland’s population were Protestant, largely favoring Union
with the UK, a significant minority were Catholic; this group largely favored a united Ireland (12).
The Catholic, mostly Nationalist minority faced political disadvantages,
which manifested in economic difficulty. The Protestant,
mostly Unionist majority held tight control over governing in Northern Ireland, and drew
election boundaries that strengthened their one-party control. With this political power,
Unionists gave themselves advantages in getting a job, and when building and allocating housing.
Unsurprisingly, the opposite came to be true for Catholics, who saw an unemployment rate
double that of protestants, and struggled to find suitable housing for their families.
In the 1960’s, Catholics in the North organized to resist this structural discrimination. 1967 marks
the birth of the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Movement, which demanded a fairer system for
voting, housing, and work. The movement attracted a broad political spectrum of Northern Catholics,
partly inspired by the protests of Dr. Martin Luther King in the US. In one
march against housing discrimination, marchers sang ‘We Shall Overcome’.
Soon the civil rights movement would meet violence, marking a period known as The
Troubles. An October ‘68 march in Londonderry was met with Unionist bully clubs and water
cannons (12). Unionists met Republican demonstrations in this way repeatedly.
By 1969 things were spiraling. In August, Protestants and Catholic street clashes
spread from Londonderry to Belfast. By 1971, the Provisional Irish Republican
Army was militarizing and meeting violence with violence, targeting soldiers and
setting bombs. Civilians on both sides were supporting and joining paramilitary groups.
There was a crescendo on Bloody Sunday, the 30th of January,
1972. British soldiers in Derry, theoretically a neutral peacekeeping force, shot 26 civilians,
civil rights protesters. They did so in full view of the media. Young republican
catholics were further militarized in the aftermath, bolstering the ranks
of the IRA. There was no going back. ‘72 was the most violent year of the Troubles.
From its start in the late 60’s until the Good Friday Agreement in 1998,
the Troubles would see violence between Unionist and Nationalist paramilitary groups, attacks on
infrastructure, civilians, and the British Army. Over 16,000 bombings were carried out,
and nearly 37,000 shootings, resulting in around 3,500 deaths, mostly civilians (13).
Broadly speaking, the aims of the Unionist groups were the continued existence of a
Protestant-dominated Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom. The Republicans, or Nationalists,
came to expect a united Ireland, the expulsion of the British from the Island of Ireland,
and justice for the disadvantaged Catholics of Northern Ireland.
After decades of conflict, these seemingly unbridgeable differences were brokered through
the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. Representatives of the parties of Northern Ireland, the Republic of
Ireland, and the British negotiated a cease-fire, established a devolved parliament and executive
for Northern Ireland in which power would be shared by Republicans and Unionists,
agreed to the decommissioning of weapons - and then, an all-Irish referendum to confirm it all.
When the referendums won majorities, the Troubles were effectively over.
One of the most visible aspects of the Good Friday Agreement was the
dismantling of border infrastructure. Today, the border between Northern Ireland and the
Republic of Ireland is nearly invisible. Not only is the lack of border checks a
sign of progress and a climb-down from the violence of the Troubles,
but it’s critical to the prosperity of the island. To this day, Northern Ireland lags behind
economically. Free movement of goods and people is a long-term means to ending this disparity.
Now that you understand the difficult history of the border,
you can see why leaving the European Union was such a sensitive issue. Sadly,
as my last video on the subject showed, it was an issue largely ignored during the 2016 referendum.
The Troubles lasted from, let’s say roughly late 60’s to 1998 - so more
or less 30 years. Here we are less than 30 years on from the Good Friday Agreement,
and the Irish Border is, by choice of UK leadership and voters, a problem.
The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in June of 2016. After
an arduous process of getting a new Prime Minister to declare the intention to leave,
ditching that Prime Minister for not negotiating a way out in the way Brexit supporters wanted,
bringing in a Prime Minister that vaguely said he would negotiate a harder line with Europe, getting
a Brexit agreement, ratifying it, and ringing bells in Big Ben, the United Kingdom finally
left the European Union on the 31st of January 2020. Story concluded. Nothing more to discuss.
Except for all of the ongoing issues Brexit left in its wake, either non-conclusively
dealt with in the Brexit agreement, or ones simply punted into procedural affairs - committees and
sub-groups to determine immigration agreements, fishing rights, financial services regulations.
And of course there is the issue of the Irish border, as we’ve learned,
the issue with the most historical weight. As part of the EU Single Market and Customs Union,
any Republic of Ireland national could go to Northern Ireland, and any Teddy Bear assembled
in Northern Ireland could be imported and sold in the Republic of Ireland or another part of the EU.
But the UK leaving the Single Market and Customs Union introduced substantial risk.
Products could be subject to customs duties or tariffs, meaning a need for border checks. The
freedom of movement of people might have ended, meaning a need for immigration border checks.
The Irish Border seemed to take a back seat to other issues during the 2016 referendum campaign,
but it’s not as though politicians didn’t realize this might be a problem. In a 2018 speech, Prime
Minister Theresa May laid out foundation aspects of the future relationship between the UK and EU,
including this quote: “I am not going to let our departure from the European Union
do anything to set back the historic progress that we have made in Northern Ireland - nor
will I allow anything that would damage the integrity of our precious Union.”
It begged the question: how? How could borders be enforced, tariffs applied,
immigration papers checked- all without a hard border between Northern Ireland
and the Republic? It was to be a question for the next Prime Minister.
Under pressure from her conservative colleagues, Theresa May announced her intent to resign on May
24th, 2019. She was quickly replaced by Boris Johnson, who had resigned from May’s cabinet
due to differences over Brexit, and proceeded to snipe at her from the back benches of Parliament.
It’s not controversial to say that Boris didn’t have a concrete plan for the island of Ireland
either. Campaigning to be Prime Minister, Johnson promised his version of Brexit would,
as he tweeted, “under no circumstances will there be a hard border on the island of Ireland,
nor will I accept a deal that sees NI taken out of the UK’s customs territory.”
Johnson insisted a deal with the EU would fulfill the same two seemingly contradictory promises:
all of the UK would leave the European customs union and single market,
AND there would be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
But, to Johnson’s credit, a new Brexit deal with the EU did arrive. The specific
impact of the deal for the Island of Ireland was at first unclear.
Labour Party opposition released internal government documents in December of 2019 which set
out the need for potential customs checks on the island of Ireland under the deal. Prime Minister
Johnson denied the reports, saying: “The deal we've done with the EU is a brilliant deal…unlike
the previous arrangements it allows the whole of the UK to come out of the EU including Northern
Ireland." He went on “There's no question of there being checks on goods…it's very clear that there
should be unfettered access between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain." (11)
Today we know: that simply wasn’t true. The deal did come up with a creative solution for the
island of Ireland. Rather than introduce a customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic,
the deal introduced a customs border in the Irish Sea. Goods coming into Northern
Ireland from the United Kingdom would be subject to checks upon arrival. This
is known as the Northern Ireland Protocol. Boris Johnson’s claimed “unfettered access
between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain” was not achieved.
But putting a customs border in the sea rather than on land was the preferable solution,
right? Well, in the short-term, yes. In the long-term, it’s wobbly.
Unionists in Northern Ireland are angry. They have, as of the writing of this video,
refused to participate in power-sharing in Northern Ireland until their concern
over the Northern Ireland Protocol is resolved,
leaving Northern Ireland without a governing Executive (14). So what is their concern?
Well, there’s really only one big problem: if there is a customs border between Northern
Ireland and the rest of the UK, is Northern Ireland really still in the United Kingdom?
If people and goods can move freely between the Republic of Ireland (a European Union
member) and Northern Ireland, but people and goods can’t move freely from the UK
into Northern Ireland, with which Union is Northern Ireland closer: the UK or EU?
At a minimum, the Northern Ireland Protocol weakens the economic bonds
of the United Kingdom. A deal brokered by Boris Johnson’s Conservative and Unionist
Party makes the Union less firm. If you’re a Unionist, you want Northern Ireland to have
the closest relationship possible to the rest of the UK, so an arrangement like this is bad news,
thus Northern Irish Unionists agitate for change to the Protocol.
In response to that agitation, the UK government has tried to correct course, and let’s be real,
they’ve gone at it clumsily. A Northern Ireland Protocol Bill was passed through the House of
Commons. If it became law, the bill would give the UK Government the power to modify
the terms of the Brexit Deal by themselves. It would alter the Exit Deal they agreed with the
European Union without the approval of the other side of that deal, the European Union.
If that sounds problematic to you - maybe even illegal, you’re on the right track.
In the UK Government’s new Deal, with themselves - goods on track to Northern
Ireland which would stay in Northern Ireland would not be subject to checks,
while goods on track to Northern Ireland which would go on to the Republic and EU
would be subject to checks - it’s a green lane, red lane gobbledygook.
This plan raised alarm bells with the European Union, who naturally
saw a unilateral altering of the Northern Ireland Protocol worth objection. Whether
a negotiated settlement is possible without the Bill taking effect is yet to be seen.
In October 2022, newly installed Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spoke with the Irish
Prime Minister - as in the Republic of Ireland. The statement from the PM’s office after revealed
the current UK government’s tactic on this: keep the bill moving as a pressure tactic,
but offer the EU a chance at renegotiation of the Protocol, with the call readout saying Sunak,
“set out that his preference remained for a negotiated outcome" (15)
“I discussed this with the Taoiseach. We had a very positive meeting. And
what I want to do is find a negotiated solution..”
But here’s the danger in this game. The Democratic Unionist Party has stated they will not accept
a new power-sharing arrangement for Northern Ireland until the Protocol Bill advances. If
Northern Ireland goes without a power-sharing arrangement for too long, the Northern Irish
Parliament at Stormont is suspended, and governing power goes back to London. Hmmm. Northern Ireland
governed by the UK… that’s something that Northern Irish Republicans object strongly to. Indeed,
the leader of Sinn Féin recently said there can be quote “no return to direct rule from London.”
And what happens if it does? Well, we don’t really know. It’s happened before since the
signing of the Good Friday Agreement, sometimes for long stretches. But the
stakes are bigger this time because the border and the fundamental relationship between the
UK and Northern Ireland are involved in the disagreement. This is a game the Conservative
and Unionist Party started playing, but whose consequences will play out across the Irish Sea.
In my first video on this subject, I suggested the UK had two options: stay aligned with the
EU on trade to preserve the Irish border, or basically saw off Northern Ireland from the UK:
“The UK is kind of stuck. On the one hand, they could stay aligned with the EU, maintain an open
border, but then lose the exit part of brexit. On the other hand, they could
realign away from Europe, but potentially cut off Northern Ireland in the process.”
Well, here we are years later, and we have an answer. The UK has
chosen to weaken its bond to Northern Ireland in order to carry out Brexit.
And this bears emphasizing: no intellectually honest member of the UK government can feign
surprise. A leaked government document reported to the government that the original Brexit
Deal quote “will be highly disruptive to the NI economy.” It goes on: “The WA has the potential
to separate NI in practice from whole swathes of the UK’s internal market” with a constitutional
effect that quote “NI symbolically separated from the Union/economic union undermined.”(6) Highly
disruptive. Symbolically separated. Separated in practice. Who knew that a few years of Brexit
would do more for a united Ireland than the Irish Civil War and decades of Troubles? Later y’all.