Hello folks, before we dive into the Star Wars Galaxy, this is actually part two of
a collaboration we’re doing with the experts over at Star Wars Explained.
If you’d like a refresher on where things stand at the end of the Force Awakens, check
the link in the description for Part One.
And lastly, while we’re not going to be talking about any direct spoilers here, we
are going to be doing a fair bit of speculating based on things we’ve seen in the trailers
so far and the surrounding expanded universe.
If you’d rather go into the Last Jedi completely clean, maybe skip this one.
Okay so, Starkiller Base has been destroyed, the New Republic is crippled and the Resistance
is on the run, what happens next?
Normally we’d have to wait until the Last Jedi to find out, but thanks to the various
supercomputers and artificial intelligence based algorithms we have here at the Templin
Institute, we can make several wild guesses.
Undoubtedly the biggest question we have to answer is what is the fate of the New Republic
and what is their relationship with the Resistance going to be moving forward?
I could see this going a few different ways.
Option one is that the New Republic, while suffering a tremendous defeat is now determined
to put an end to the threat of the First Order.
Forces across the galaxy will be mobilized and some sort of emergency provisional government
will take control of the Republic until new senators and a new chancellor can be elected.
But is this likely?
Probably not.
The details revealed about the New Republic so far reveal that its member worlds were
almost traumatized by the rule of the Galactic Empire and there is a deep revulsion across
the galaxy for anything that might be considered militaristic, authoritarian or any aspect
of centralized authority.
In short, the New Republic is completely unprepared for a galactic conflict and lacks the political
strength to unite its members behind a coordinated war effort.
In fact, the New Republic is probably in worse shape than even the Old Republic at the time
of the Clone Wars.
So, what is option two?
Well it could be the Hosnian Cataclysm is the beginning of the end for the New Republic.
If we assume that the best equipped and most loyal ships and officers of the New Republic
Starfleet were all destroyed, the various member worlds might look at what resources
they have left, and decide that a separate peace with the First Order is preferable to
another costly Galactic Civil War.
While a small core of systems might remain with the New Republic, it’s possible that
Corellia, Naboo, Kuat or really any major system might decide to secede and go out on
their own, or align themselves with the First Order, or perhaps even take advantage of the
situation to seize by force neighboring territories.
The galaxy could be in absolute chaos.
Now regardless of what happens to the New Republic, the Resistance has become one of
the most important factions in the galaxy.
Not only were they proven correct about the dangers of the First Order, something their
leadership had been preaching about unheeded for a decade, but their swift, decisive action
against Starkiller Base prevented any other star systems from being destroyed.
Whatever form the New Republic takes in Episode 8, it has lost all credibility while the Resistance
has achieved an enormous political and military victory.
If the New Republic collapses into various factions, it's entirely possible that any
remaining Republic loyalists might rally around the Resistance.
Alternatively, however, if the New Republic persists, the need for the Resistance to continue
acting as a separate force has been eliminated, and the New Republic military might attempt
to integrate the Resistance under their command to claim its victories as their own.
So that leaves the First Order, still one of the most mysterious forces in the galaxy
at this point.
Do they exist solely on a roving fleet of warships or do they control a number of planets
hidden across the Unknown Regions?
Do they have the population and industry needed to sustain a prolonged war of conquest against
the rest of the galaxy?
It’s difficult to answer any of these questions with the information we have so far, but I
think we take it as a given that the First Order does not possess anything close to the
resources of the Empire.
With that in mind I think it's safe to say the First Order is gambling on their initial
strikes being enough to collapse the New Republic or perhaps they’re counting on a significant
portion of the galaxy either staying out of the fighting or outright aligning themselves
with the First Order.
Given how bad things are within the Republic they have a pretty good shot of achieving
either of these goals.
In fact, I believe that the destruction of the Hosnian System was just a single aspect
of their plan.
It’s possible that they struck numerous strategic locations across the Galaxy at the
same time with their conventional military forces, further crippling the ability of the
New Republic to respond and gaining support from hidden Imperial or First Order sympathizers.
Whatever the case, it certainly seems that the First Order has utter contempt for the
New Republic military and instead sees the actions of the Resistance and by extension
the return of Luke Skywalker as their greatest threat.
So that about does it for the major factions of the Last Jedi, but the galaxy is a big
place.
During the unfolding chaos could underworld organizations like Black Sun or Hutt crimelords
attempt to take advantage of the situation?
Could the First Order be in league with the Chiss Ascendency?
Is Lando a man or a system?
With the release of The Last Jedi, hopefully these questions will be answered.