Welcome back to Team Guides!
Part 1 went up yesterday, so make sure you watch that before continuing with the video.
Let's get right into it!
The Cyan Coyotes
Cyan have the lowest gap between the teammate with the highest Season 2 average and the
teammate with the lowest, with the gap between Seapeekay and Wilbur being only 509 coins.
To put this in perspective, the average gap between the highest and lowest average players
on a team in MCC22 is 1065 coins!
In Season 2, we’ve seen many high placing teams which contain four players of similar
skill level, including the MCC14 Aqua Axolotls, MCC18 Cyan Centipedes and MCC20 Green Geckos.
Cyan will certainly be aiming to replicate this pattern, and the first thing that will
help them get to dodgebolt is their best game, Ace Race.
Ace Race is Seapeekay’s best game, having placed in the Top 5 in MCC 15, 16 and 20,
as well as never dropping out of the Top 17 this season.
In addition, it’s Wilbur’s 3rd best game.
He’s regularly placed in the top half, even getting as high as 7th in MCC16.
Though it isn’t quite as strong of a game for Ranboo and Wisp, they still have very
solid average placements, leading to an average score for Cyan of 1184 coins, the highest
in the event and more than 33% above the event average.
If Ace Race is played Game 6 or later, as it often is, Cyan’s chances of making dodgebolt
almost double!
Similarly, another game that Cyan want to get played is Battle Box, being the strongest
team in the event for it.
Every player bar Wilbur scores above their personal average, and it’s Wisp’s best
game.
In both MCC14, MCC Pride and MCC15, Wisp placed in the Top 5 individually, and people have
often commented on his strong gamesense of when to “go for the wool”, as well as
generally judging the situation.
For Cyan, it’s absolutely crucial that they play Battle Box as late as possible.
However, one game they won’t want late is Survival Games, as every single player scores
below their personal averages, making Cyan the weakest SG team in the whole event.
Though Ranboo in particular has struggled with it, it’s a bottom 4 game for every
single player.
With SG finales being a relatively common occurrence in Season 2, this is certainly
a scenario that they want to avoid at all costs.
Cyan’s distribution certainly skews towards the top half, with their most common placement
being 3rd.
However, their chances of dodgebolt are very dependent on when their best games, Battle
Box, Hole in the Wall and Ace Race, get played.
If a game like Battle Box is skipped and they get a Survival Games finale, their statistical
chance of making dodgebolt can drop to as low as 0%.
However, this team is certainly one to watch, as the right game order could send them straight
into the finals.
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Anyway, onto the Aqua Axolotls
A good way to do well in the event is to avoid movement games, with the exception of Rocket
Spleef Rush, at all costs.
Their worst three games end up being Ace Race, TGTTOS, and HITW, in that order, with their
Ace Race score of 628 being the lowest score in any game this event.
The other movement game, Parkour Tag, isn’t too much better, sitting just above the other
three with Battle Box in between.
However, Rocket Spleef Rush isn’t anywhere near the other movement games, actually being
one of their best due to the hermits’ adeptness with elytra.
In fact, Aqua are the 3rd strongest team in the event at Rocket Spleef Rush, behind only
Orange and Lime.
False is the only player on the team who scores below her personal average, though this is
likely due to how she has only played it once.
In Season 1, Rocket Spleef was False’s strongest game, and so it wouldn’t be surprising to
see her perform significantly better than she did in MCC20.
Looking at some of Aqua’s other strong games, Sands of Time and Buildmart are both up there
as their strong games.
In Sands of Time, every single player scores above their personal average.
Though HBomb is certainly the strongest explorer on the team, Grian and False have both had
very strong events previously in Sands of Time.
Scar has struggled slightly with the game, but if anyone can help him become a stronger
explorer, or even a stronger sandkeeper, it is HBomb.
Of course, with Grian on the team, Aqua is also an absolute buildmart powerhouse, being
the strongest team in the whole event!
Every single player except HBomb performs above their average, with HBomb only being
just below his.
Unsurprisingly, Buildmart is Grian’s strongest game, with multiple first places under his
belt thanks to his Manager strat.
False and H also both recently proved they’re still strong Buildmart players, placing 1st
and 3rd respectively in MCC20.
With this much pure Buildmart power, a late Buildmart could definitely be the thing which
sends Aqua into dodgebolt!
However, the stats disagree slightly with this, with our simulation predicting the highest
placement they can obtain being only 4th.
Of course, this is only based on statistics, and this can certainly change on the day.
Our simulations have been wrong in the past, not predicting that MCC19 Cerulean would make
dodgebolt, and only giving the MCC21 Blue Bats a 0.3% chance to make it to dodgebolt.
If Aqua get something close to their ideal game order, skipping most movement games whilst
getting a late Rocket Spleef and Buildmart, they could certainly surprise us all!
The Blue Bats Blue have a pretty mixed bag of strengths
between all of their players, and they’re able to cover each other person’s bases
pretty well.
TapL’s best games tend to be movement based, while Tubbo is more PvP heavy with RSR thrown
in, and yet another player on their team, Eret, specializes more in team games.
Sniff on the other hand has no real consensus due to their low sample size.
Adding onto the aforementioned mixed strengths, Blue are also one of the most consistent teams
in the event, having the lowest standard deviation.
Pretty much all of the 11 games will be solid for them, with the only notable exceptions
being their high scores in Sands of Time and low ones in HITW.
Fortunately for them, Sands of Time has always been played, usually as Game 7 or 8, and HITW
is usually one of the earlier games.
Eret for one, does absolutely insane in Sands of Time; it’s his best game by almost 150
coins.
While MCC 20 was rough, with his team getting 7th, MCCs 17 and 19 were amazing, and his
team got 2nd both times.
TapL’s performances have also been good in Season 2, on average scoring around 3rd
to 5th.
SoT is also TapL’s best team game by a long shot.
Moving onto Tubbo, he’s performed more all over the place, but he’s had some good showings
in MCCs 19 and 21.
Finally, while Sniff did get last during MCC 21, the margin was quite slim, and that definitely
wasn’t showing Sniff’s full potential, so we might very well see Sniff pop off this
event.
All four of these players have shown skill at being able to communicate and do well in
SoT in the past, with Eret especially showing exceptional strength in Sands of Time, all
of which could make for an impressive showing on the day of the event.
Looking at the distributions for this team, they range anywhere from 2nd to 10th, with
their most likely placement being 7th.
However, there is still a chance that this team can make it into dodgebolt, even if it
is only 14 game orders, so with good showings from them, and obviously some luck in getting
a good game order, Blue just might be able to make it into the finale yet.
The Purple Pandas In terms of games, no team comes close to
Purple’s insane team games score.
This team has the best Sands of Time average, the best Grid Runners average, and is only
17 coins away from the best Buildmart average.
This is mostly thanks to the combination of Gem, Cub and Shubble.
Meanwhile, Punz uses some insane scores to shore up this teams weaknesses in PvP and
movement games.
Notably, Punz’s incredible Ace Race and Survival Games averages keep those games as
solid when they would normally be games to avoid for this team.
Overall, this team has no clear weaknesses to exploit and are incredibly well rounded.
Games that do seem to go poorly for this team are PvP and Movement games that Punz is only
good at instead of great.
Notably, Battle Box, Hole in the Wall and Sky Battle are games where this team is much
less dominant.
These games really play to this team’s weaknesses`s, and should be avoided if they can.
The player to watch on this team is going to be Cubfan.
Cubfan has some of the best season 2 averages in the event for team games, and is a constant
calming presence and great support player.
However, every once in a while Cubfan will have a fantastic event, exploding into the
top 20.
In fact, every time Cubfan has scored more than 2000 coins, his team has made it into
dodgebolt.
Cub isn't the most consistent player in the event, but when he is playing well, he easily
becomes the missing piece that can get this team to the final game.
Looking at distributions, Purple can place almost anywhere.
Their average placement hovers around 5th or 6th, with about a 3% chance to make dodgebolt.
Still, this team should definitely not be counted out.
If we see a late Sands of Time or Grid Runners, don’t be surprised if Purple is one of the
teams fighting it out in dodgebolt.
The Pink Parrots [Bulbasaur] Pink has quite a few strong games.
They’re the best team in Sky Battle, with Oli having very strong past performances in
early season 2 despite an unfortunate MCC20 and although historically it has been one
of the Captain’s worst games he proved in MCC20 that when he plays aggressively, he
can get a lot of kills.
This team's real strength at the game lies with Purpled and Tommy however.
Both of them got top 3 last MCC, with Tommy getting 1st individual despite his teammates
dying early each round.
Purpled showed he works best with a leader to make callouts last MCC, and Tommy can definitely
fulfill that role in Sky Battle.
They’re also very strong in To Get To The Other Side, and it’s not just because of
Purpled’s standout performance, although that is likely a large factor.
They have multiple strong players who can grab those incredible top 10 individual bonuses,
but they also don’t really have a weak player at it, which can definitely help with the
team bonuses.
These factors combined make them extremely scary in this game.
Something interesting about this team is their similarity to the Lime Llamas.
Their worst and best games are alike, with Survival Games and Grid Runners not being
particularly wanted by either of them, and they share their great skill in games like
Hole in the Wall, Ace Race, and Sky Battle.
Even the games they do average at are extremely close in score.
As a result, it’s likely that Pink and Lime will be fighting each other the whole tournament,
although there are some key differences that make them stand out from one another.
First, Pink is much weaker at Rocket Spleef Rush and Build Mart, making them absolutely
essential for getting them out of the way early or if possible, skipping entirely.
But secondly, Pink is slightly stronger in TGTTOS, Battle Box, and Sands of Time.
This makes their game order really dependent on how Lime does to try and beat them out
to get the top spots.A nd what’s most interesting, even though Pink are rather average at Sands
of Time, our simulation wants them to play it last so that they can get ahead of the
Llamas.
This will be a very interesting competition to watch during the event.
A quick look at distributions show us that Pink gets into dodgebolt around 10% of the
time.
If they make sure that Build Mart and Rocket Spleef are played earlier than game 4 or skipped
entirely however, we see a bit of a different story.
Now they get in above 30% of the time and get into the top 4 80% of the time.
This team’s path to dodgebolt is very dependant on balancing plays game they are genuinely
just great late, such as Sky Battle, as well as trying to make sure Lime can’t overtake
them.
And if this all works, Pink should have a great chance to get tp dogdebolt