Vladimir Putin is like your boss: you don’t like him, you don’t trust him, but you need
him to pay your bills. It’s been a long time since we’ve talked about Putin here
on VisualPolitik and… I know what are you’re thinking now. Again, Simon? Are you going
to talk about OIL? Well not this time! Today we are going to talk about NATURAL GAS!
Many of you might think these are very similar things. At the end of day, countries with
oil reserves usually have gas reserves too. But there is a difference. Oil markets are
way more diversified. For example: Europe buys 30% of their crude oil from Russia but,
when it comes to gas, the number rises to 40%. But, if we look at each individual European
country, the dependency is way higher. Germany imports 60% of their gas from Russia and other
countries like Finland and the Baltics depend entirely on Russian gas. In other words, Putin
could leave these countries freezing on a cold, cold winter night that would make Game
of Thrones look like Baywatch. But wait a minute because there’s more to
this resource than heating! In fact, we need natural gas for many other things. Domestic
consumption is just a third of the total. As you can see on this chart, another third
is for thermal power plants. But the biggest share is used by various industries. For example,
a paper manufacturing company needs thermal energy. This means… heat! In order to get
this heat, the factory uses gas. And the same goes for many other industries.
In other words, gas is extremely important to everybody, and that includes Europe. And
guess who’s the biggest gas consumer in all of Europe? Of course, that would be Germany:
the most populated country on the continent and also, the one with the biggest economy.
And this is the key of the story. Because, as long as Germany remains so dependant on
Russia, all of Europe will depend on Russia too. And this is why, during the 2018 NATO
summit, Donald Trump said things like this. “Germany is totally controlled by Russia,
because they will get from sixty to seventy percent of their gas on a new pipeline. And
you tell me if you think that’s appropriate because I think it’s not… and I think
it’s a bad thing for NATO” So the question today is… Is Trump right
when he criticizes Germany? Is it really a problem that Germany has such a high dependency
on Russian gas? And more importantly… is there a true attempt to reduce that dependency?
Today we are going to answer to all of these questions but, before we do, let’s take
a look back at history. OUR MAN IN BERLIN
There are two ways of transporting gas. The cheapest one is through a pipeline. This means,
we build a huge pipe that goes from the place we take the gas, say the Yamal Peninsula in
Russia, to the country that buys it, say Germany. This is very cheap because you just need to
build the pipe and… There you go! You don’t need trucks, ships or things like that. Since
you transport the gas through pipes, it comes to the power plants, the houses, and the factories
directly. There is also an alternative method: so-called
Liquified Natural Gas or LNG. How does this work? Well, let’s say we take the gas from
Qatar. Then, we lower its temperature until it reaches -161 ºC. This is the point when
the gas becomes liquid and you can store it in bottles. These bottles can be stored in
a ship and sent to… let’s say, the Barcelona dock, in Spain. There they have a re-gasification
plant where they heat the liquid until it becomes gas again. This gas goes to the national
pipe net and that’s when it’s transported to houses and factories. What is the advantage
of this process? Well… it allows Europe to Diversify their gas providers easily. The
problem? It is 50 to 70% more expensive than the pipelines.
And this is why European countries buy their gas from the closest producers using pipelines.
For example, the biggest supplier for Spain is Algeria. But the Northern countries buy
gas from Norway and, especially, Russia. As we said before, companies like ROSFNEFT or
LUKOIL export more than half of the gas consumed in Germany… and what about the countries
located between Germany and Russia? Well, they have an even deeper dependency. Just
look at this map. If you pay attention, you will see how Poland
depends on Russian gas for 75% of their needs. Others like Finland and Romania go to 100%.
In other words, half of Europe needs Russia in order to survive. And this is not a secret.
The European Commission knows about it, Vladimir Putin knows about it, even HE knows about
it… Germany will become totally dependent on Russian
energy if it does not immediately change course. Here in the Western Hemisphere, we are committed
to maintaining our independence from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers
But let’s pause the video here for a moment. Right here, where we can see the German delegation
laughing at Trump. He just said that Germany WILL become totally dependant on Russian energy.
This means, if they were already dependent… they will become even more dependent. What
is he talking about exactly? Well… let’s rewind the video.
Remember this name GERHARD SCHRODER *GERARD ŠREDER*. He is the former German chancellor,
the predecessor of Angela Merkel. He still maintains a massive influence in German and
European politics. And… what does he do now? Well… he’s building this.
FORMER NATO CHIEF RASMUSSEN Germany walks into Putin's trap - Nord Stream
2 )))
Basically, Nord Stream 2 is a brand new pipeline that would go under the Baltic sea, connecting
Germany and Russia with no middle man. With this new pipeline, Germany could double their
imports of Russian gas. And this project has a shareholder committee with companies like
the Russian GAZPROM. And… the president of this committee is, of course, Mr. SCHROEDER.
If this wasn’t enough, the former German chancellor is the president of ROSNEFT, a
Russian oil company. This is why, in the last 10 years, SCHOEDER
has become Putin’s man in Europe. In fact, he has defended Russia in all kinds of matters,
from the cyber attacks against the Estonian government to the Crimean invasion. In other
words, far from reducing their dependence on Russia, Germany is going in the opposite
direction. So… what were those German laughing about?
Honestly… I have no clue. But OK, OK, I know what you’re thinking
now… What’s the problem with depending so much on Russia?
Is it the fact that Putin is an authoritarian ruler? Seriously? Oh come on! If this was
a problem, then we could hardly buy gas from anybody else. Among the list of suppliers
we have AZERBAIJAN, ALGERIA, QATAR… of course, these are all healthy democracies governed
by the Sisters of Mercy. Of course, nobody cares about democracy and
human Rights when it comes to having heating in their homes. The problem with depending
on Russia is something else. You’ll understand what right now.
RUSSIA-HOLICS In the year 2006, Gazprom wanted the Ukrainians
to pay 6 times more for gas. This was a 100% political move. For decades, Russia and Ukraine
had a really good relationship… and then the orange revolution began. When VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO
came to power with his anti-Russian and pro-European rhetoric, the Kremlin said…
(((READ THIS AS IF YOU ARE SUPER JEALOUS))) Oh, I get it, Ukraine! So you only wanna hang
out with your cool European friends now, huh? Well, get your wallet ready because it’s
not going to be cheap. Think about it… building a brand new pipeline
with another country takes years. So Ukraine couldn’t just find new suppliers overnight.
If Putin wanted, he could raise prices at will. And if Ukraine doesn’t want to pay…
Russia can just close the pipe. For three days, in the middle of a cold wave,
Ukrainians had no heating at home. And after a tense negotiation, Ukraine agreed to pay
double for the gas. In exchange, they raised the fee that Russia had to pay in order to
cross their country to send the gas to the rest of Europe.
But this was just the beginning. In the year 2009, we had the same problem but… king
sized. Russia wanted Ukraine to pay more for their gas… again. Kiev and Moskow started
insulting each other. And in this case, it was not only Ukraine that went without gas
for days. It was also the rest of Europe: and that included the Czech Republic, Italy,
Poland and, of course, Germany. Yes, my dear viewers, most of that Russian gas comes through
Ukraine so… if Ukrainians have no gas, chances are, other Europeans will be freezing too.
Again, the story ended with Ukraine paying more for their gas in exchange of more transport
fees. Nevertheless, just like Game of Thrones, Putin’s tune is a Song of Ice and Fire.
After freezing Europeans in 2006 and 2009, 2014 was the year of fire. And the fire came
in a Ukrainian province called Crimea. As you know, Russians took Crimea.
And what did the European Union do in this case? Well, they just came to Putin and said…
‘Putin, you are a very very naughty boy! We will sanction you and… you will write
this line 20 times: ‘I will not invade other countries’’. And this was the end of the
story. Now, Ukraine is more of a headache than anything else. But we’ll cover this
in the next video of this series. Because, yes, there will be a whole series about Russian
gas. If you don’t want to miss it, you know… subscribe and click on the bell button.
So now, Europe has two options. Putin and Schroeder want to build new pipelines to bypass
Ukraine. That is the first option. The second one is what the European Union wants: to find
other gas suppliers… but… Can they really do that? Pay attention because we’re going
to see right now! ATTEMPTS AT DIVERSIFICATION
The fastest way of diversifying is, you guessed, buying Liquefied Natural Gas. Of course, it
is expensive but countries don’t need to wait to build brand new pipelines. So what’s
the problem here? LNG ships are too busy with the Asian markets. Basically, the Pacific
Ocean is full of these ships that go from Australia, Qatar and Malasia to Japan, China
and Korea. You see… in Asia, gas prices are way higher than everywhere else. So good
luck convincing America or Qatar to sell you their gas when they’re getting rich off
of Asia. This is why the most realistic option is to
build new pipelines. The question is… where? On one hand, we have Norway. But Europe already
buys all the gas they produce. Going down South, Spain wants to build the MIDCAT, a
pipeline that would connect Algeria with Northern Europe. But France is not very excited about
the idea because they would have to build the whole net to sell to other countries.
And, you know… ‘oh man… this is so much work… maybe
tomorrow, or well, not tomorrow because I already have plans… maybe next week’
The most serious alternative so far is the so called TRANSADRIATIC PIPELINE or TAP, which
is meant to be finished by 2020. This pipe goes from Azerbaijan, crosses Turkey and goes
all the way to Italy. But wait a minute because this still isn’t
enough! This pipeline has a maximum capacity of 20 billion cubic meters of gas. This isn’t
even half the capacity of the Nord Stream 2 that connects Germany and Russia.
But… this is not the only problem. When it comes to oil, Putin is a very jealous boyfriend.
And if you thought he would put up with so much gas promiscuity… you are very wrong.
Gazprom says gas transit via Ukraine to Europe may fall to 10-15 bcm per year
With this move, Putin kills two birds with one stone. First, he’s forcing Europe to
follow him. And on top of that, he bypasses Ukraine. But this is not the end of the story!
In the South, Putin is also pushing to build brand new pipes. And, my dear viewers, if
you thought GERHARD SCHROEDER is the only friend of Vladimir Putin in Europe… you
are very, very wrong. Hungary wants Russia's Turkish Stream pipeline
to be extended into Europe But there are still two points we haven’t
dealt with here. For one, we have to talk about Ukraine… Can Putin totally bypass
them? On top of that, we should talk about AZERBAIJAN, another dictatorship that will
become Europe’s best friend. So, if you don’t wanna miss those stories, subscribe
and hit the bell button. Meanwhile, here is a question for you… do
you think Putin can reduce its dependency on Russia? Or do you think Putin will become
the Night King, with enough power to turn Europeans into white walkers? Please, leave
your answer in the comments section below. And visit the RECONSIDER MEDIA PODCAST, the
podcast that provided the vocals in this episode that were not mine. If you liked this video,
give us a thumbs up and, as always, I’ll see you next time!