The Caribbean island of Barbados has announced that it plans to remove Queen Elizabeth II as head of state.
If it goes ahead, it'll be the first Commonwealth country in almost 30 years to abolish the monarchy.
But the big question is whether any of the other 15 countries around the world
that currently retain the Queen will follow suit.
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Hello and Welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I discuss
international relations, independence, statehood and the origins of countries.
We tend to take it for granted that countries have their own resident heads of state.
After all, as sovereign independent states on the world stage,
it would seem obvious that they would be led by one of their very own inhabitants.
However, there are in fact a number of states that don't.
One highly unusual example is the Principality of Andorra, which lies between France and Spain.
It in fact has two heads of state - the Co-Princes - neither of which is resident in the country.
One is the President of France
- a rather amusing accident of history given France's staunchly republican credentials.
The other is the Bishop of Urgell, a diocese in neighbouring Catalonia.
But the most obvious examples of countries that don't in fact have their own homegrown, if you like,
heads of states are the 15 countries around the world that continue to have the British monarch,
Queen Elizabeth II, as their head of state.
As well as the United Kingdom, there's Canada in North America and Belize in Central America.
Then there are eight Caribbean states:
Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Grenada, Jamaica, St Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia,
and St Vincent and the Grenadines.
And then there are five in the Pacific:
Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu.
Also, she remains head of state of Niue and the Cook Islands, which are in free association with New Zealand.
To put all this in context, 8.3% of the UN's 193 members retained the Queen as their head of state.
This amounts to a combined population of around 150 million people
and constitutes about 13% of the World's land mass.
It's against this backdrop that the news emerged, in September 2020, that the small Caribbean island state
of Barbados was planning to replace the Queen with a president resident in the country.
According to plans put forward by the country's Prime Minister, the legislation to become a republic will be
presented in time for the country's celebrations to mark the 55th anniversary of independence,
in November 2021.
But will it happen? And, more to the point, will others follow suit?
First, it's perhaps worth taking a look at the background history.
The end of the Second World War saw the beginning of the end of the British Empire.
Economically exhausted from two major conflicts over the previous half century,
Britain could no longer sustain its extensive colonial holdings.
Moreover, the emerging world order, which was dominated by the United States of America
and the Soviet Union stood firmly against imperialism.
As a result, when it was written in 1945, the Charter of the newly formed United Nations
laid the foundations for a process of decolonisation.
While the so-called dominions - Australia, Canada and New Zealand - had essentially become self-governing
in the first half of the 20th century and had effectively become fully independent states by the end of the war,
the process of British decolonisation really got underway with the partition of India in 1947,
which led to an independent India and Pakistan.
In the decades that followed that process intensified across the Americas, Europe, Asia and Africa.
As a result, today around 60 UN members were once a part of the British Empire.
Interestingly, many of these newly independent countries retained the British monarch
as their head of state after independence.
One of these was Ireland, which retained the King until 1949 - albeit in a rather unclear manner.
But there were many others.
For example, few perhaps realise that India, Pakistan as well as Sri Lanka, which became independent in 1948,
kept the Queen as head of state until 1950, 1956 and 1972 respectively.
Indeed, as well as the 16 countries that still retain the Queen today, another 18 countries kept the British
monarch as head of state after independence, including such large countries as Nigeria and South Africa.
That said, by the start of the 1970s most of these had become republics.
Indeed, just four countries that retained the Queen as head of state
have abolished the monarchy in the time since then.
These were Malta, in 1974; Trinidad and Tobago, in 1976; and Fiji, in 1987.
The most recent country to abolish the monarchy was Mauritius, in 1992.
In the 30 years or so since then, no others have followed.
This is what makes Barbados's announcement so noteworthy.
But, of course, this isn't to say that Barbados is the first country in recent years to propose becoming a republic.
It's been widely discussed in several of the remaining 16.
Perhaps the best known case was Australia, which in fact held a referendum on the issue in 1999.
Fought on the basis that it was time for the country to become a fully independent sovereign republic
to mark the new millennium, the plan was put to voters but eventually rejected.
With a 95% turnout, 45.13% voted in favour of abolishing the monarchy against 54.87% that rejected the idea.
Interestingly, one of the factors that seems to have led to the proposal's defeat was not monarch sentiment
in the country but instead opposition to the form of presidential elections set out in the referendum.
Instead of a directly elected president, the national parliament would decide by two-thirds majority.
But, interestingly, Australia is not the only country to have held a referendum on abolishing the monarchy.
Two other referendums have been held elsewhere, both of which also failed.
The first of these was in the small South Pacific island state of Tuvalu, in 2008.
The following year a vote was held in the Caribbean state of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
In view of this, it's perhaps interesting that in Barbados the government appears to have opted to go down
the route of legislation to abolish the monarchy, rather than put it to a popular vote.
That said, the proposals seem to carry widespread support.
Current thinking seems to be that the legislation will be passed relatively easily.
Interestingly, and as a twist to the story,
It's in fact been suggested that Barbados may have been put up to the decision by China.
In a report published by The Times, Tom Tugendhat,
the chair of the British Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee,
suggested that Beijing had persuaded the country to take the step in an attempt to loosen its ties to Britain.
While it's hard to know whether this is in fact the case,
it's certainly an interesting idea that wouldn't seem to be entirely beyond the realms of possibility.
But, in fact, the big question is whether any of the other countries will now follow suit?
At this stage, perhaps the best candidate is Jamaica.
In fact, it often comes as a surprise to many people to learn that this Caribbean state,
one of the largest in the region, is still officially a monarchy under Queen Elizabeth.
The idea for a transition to a republic has long been on the table, but little has been done to put it into effect.
That said, Barbados's decision may now also spur the country into action.
Beyond that, it's hard to say which others might follow.
Some suggest that New Zealand may be one to watch.
A poll in 2019 showed that 55% would like a New Zealand citizen to be the next head of state,
as opposed to 39 percent who would like the next British monarch to take the role.
The current Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, has also spoken of her republican sympathies,
but has certainly not prioritised the issue and maintains a notably respectful position towards the Queen.
And, of course, it could well reignite debates in Australia
- although recent polling seems to suggest that it's now a rather secondary issue in the country.
Indeed, it seems that just around a third of voters actively favour moves to become a republic.
In Canada, it seems that people are rather indifferent.
A poll taken in early 2020 showed that just 32% would prefer to have an elected head of state
over 27% who preferred the monarchy, with 28% expressing complete indifference.
Perhaps more to the point, just over half of Canadians believe that the country would still be on monarchy
20 years from now, with just 27% believing that the country would have an elected head of state.
As for others, it's hard to say which ones might follow - if any.
If Barbados goes through with its decision, and Jamaica follows,
then others in the Caribbean may well decide to do the same.
But it's certainly not guaranteed.
In her way, the Queen actually serves a rather useful purpose.
And as Fidel Castro, of all people, once told the Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda,
having the Queen, who is entirely absent from day-to-day politics,
provided a level of confidence in the constitutional arrangements of the country.
Many will no doubt see her continued role in such terms.
Then again, if China was behind the decision in Barbados,
and is prepared to lavish money in this direction elsewhere,
it may be able to exert similar influence over other smaller countries in the Caribbean and South Pacific.
So, this will certainly be something interesting to watch.
But, in actual fact, the question is whether we will perhaps see the number of countries where the Queen
is head of state in fact increase before it goes down.
If Scotland were to become independent, it seems all but certain that it would do so as a monarchy
- at least in the first instance.
However, even if this happens, one nevertheless has to wonder whether it would be a temporary blip.
It seems hard to believe that all of the states that currently retain the Queen as head of state
will continue to do so indefinitely.
While we think of the head of state as one of the most obvious symbols of an independent country,
the announcement by Barbados that it intends to abolish the monarch and replace Queen Elizabeth with an
elected president, has highlighted the fact that around the world there are in fact 16 countries
that retain the British monarch as head of state.
And yet, in recent years, the matter seems to have gone quiet.
Indeed, the last country to abandon the Queen did so three decades ago.
Despite this, one has to wonder whether Barbados's decision, if it does come to pass,
will in fact reopen the debate - at least for some countries.
That said, going on past experience, even if it does,
the process of abandoning the Queen might not be as wide-ranging or as fast as many might think.
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