georgina Sam thank you both very much
indeed for aiming time to join us let's
start by looking at what the 31st of
January actually changes what happens
that day what changes well I think you
and I won't really feel the changes but
of course the big change is that the UK
is no longer a member state it becomes a
third country that means practically it
has no institutional presence in
Brussels it's no longer taking part in
those meetings diplomats will no longer
be part those working groups but the UK
does remain in the single market and
customs unions so actually we are still
abiding by euros and regulations we
still a part the same market we can
still travel freely to the EU and so
it's really just a sort of a big change
but you and I can't feel it and it will
feel rather cosmetic on the 1st of
February we can still be taken to court
by the European institutions yes
purposes of meetings we've got we've got
to have a glass at the wall we've got to
ask people as they leave the meeting
what happened in there exactly I mean
this transition period was set up
because the you can you realize quite
early on in their negotiations that they
wouldn't have time to negotiate the
divorce so the withdraw and also their
future relationships though ok well
let's have an extra couple of months
where the UK remains part of a single
mark in customs union but we you know
resolve the withdrawal and you're no
longer in a new member but you're still
in our market and that gives us a little
bit more time and flexibility to figure
out what happens next and the irony is I
suppose going back to your point about
we have to be trying to find out what
happens from outside the room with the
glass on the walls we probably don't
have to and we are are beefing up our
presence in Brussels because actually
finding out what's going on is much
tougher it's much tougher when you're
not in the room and I know this is
something that Georgia's written about
very recently actually ok no it's true
and I'm creaky
you know what government I think has
recognized that actually it will be much
harder because it's not really just
sitting in the room it's like walking on
the way to the meeting with your you
know maybe your colleagues you're at
other EU diplomats figuring out and
what's your government's policy position
on this can we collaborate can we
cooperate when you become a third
country
you're just queueing at the door with
everyone else so it's a lot harder and
though Sam we start trade talks straight
away or not quite like that
so no we once we have left the EU then
of course trade talks as to the future
relationship can begin but they're not
going to begin straightaway because the
EU is still developing its mandate for
the negotiations on the future
relationship and that won't be confirmed
until the end of February so I think
realistically speaking we're looking for
trade talks between the UK and the EU to
begin in March and what are we learning
about that mandate what's with the glass
to the wall I think at least to me it's
it's nothing unexpected we know what the
UK's red lines are if we don't want to
portray those red line what progress
Johnson's priorities are which is he
wants the flexibility to regulate the
domestic UK market as he sees fit and he
wants to be able to strike new free
trade agreements with other countries
the u.s. Australia New Zealand and he
wants to end freedom of movement so in
terms of the trade relationship between
the UK and EU the options available are
very limited so what we're talking about
is a free trade agreement at best
between the UK and the EU what does this
do in practice it could remove all
tariffs and quotas this is useful but
it's not going to do much to remove
regulatory barriers to trade or
facilitate trade in services for example
and it's funny isn't it because when you
listen to that you think well why is it
taking them so long to figure out their
Monday then if we do have a rough idea
of what a basic deal could cover and
that's because actually different member
states have different priorities when it
comes to the UK and for any trade
agreement of the EU does there's always
a process where it's with an internal
bargaining you know visio my priorities
there are trade offs they they start to
sort of prioritize to its setting and
that prioritization of issues becomes so
much more important when you've only got
under a year yeah because this is this
is actually what they're discussing in
the new circle what do we prioritize in
the short space of time because we can't
it will do we prioritize because
actually the it's the Commission that
really wants to prioritize talks because
they want to prioritize trade and a
couple of other issues but for some of
the Member States they're saying well no
let's just try and do everything at
first and then we'll prioritize if we
need to later so just in a mad panic at
the
potentially but so we're just working
that out but of course this is just the
normal process of the EU developing a
mandate by the time it's it's published
or if they do publish it they might not
publish the actual mandate they might
publish the objectives linked to the
mandates we have a pretty clear idea of
what they want to do in lane and who's
gonna win that battle the Commission or
those member states you'd like to try
everything on a commission that wants to
prioritize I mean in front of the EU
perspective they act as one right the
Commission acts on behalf of the 27 and
it isn't one player amongst you know 28
but of course the Commission have the
experience of negotiating these trade
agreements they will have had experience
negotiating with a British team that
withdrawal agreement and there is a
sense when you speak to people in
Brussels that over in the UK they also
want to leave everything on the table
they don't want to prioritize those
those issues so I think it's really
difficult to know who's going to be
leading who's going to win that battle
because actually we have a sense of what
some Member States prioritize but we
don't know everything so it's really
difficult to put it looking to my what
the fortune tellers crystal ball crystal
ball yes if I was to look in tonight
with a digital one these I was looking
to my digital crystal ball that it's
linked up by 5g to my fridge or
something like that I would say what do
I expect from the next year first half
of the year once this discussion gets
going we know the EU's going to want to
talk about fishing straight away that's
in the political declaration they want
to get something resolved on that by the
1st of July we know that there's going
to be some arguments about the
preconditions that EU is going to place
on a free trade agreement on negotiating
a free trade agreement with the UK so
these are the controversial issues
around the UK remaining aligned on state
aid and also committing not to roll back
on EU labor and environmental protection
so I think this first half of the year
we're going to get a lot of chest
beating I don't actually expect
substantive negotiations to happen until
the autumn there's a funny old
contradiction at the middle of all of
that doesn't it that Europe says you can
only walk through the door towards a
bare-bones free-trade agreement if you
promise not to massively expand the
state with state funding or to
deregulate it in the other direction
that's I think because the EU is more
than just a market it's you know if you
want to think of it differently it's a
regulatory superpower so when you talk
to people in Brussels they say look we
know that the UK wants out but otherwise
why would it vote to leave the single
market and customer senior it's how you
manage that divergence and it's how you
prevent you know our businesses from
from facing an unfair competitive
advantage how much do they think we
really want to diverge cuz I didn't
remember it being a massive part of the
2016 debate or even the general election
that we just had so when it comes to
diverging in terms of say working
directive rules that govern the labor
market or the environment so to be
honest that's the word labor in the
environment they're a bit concerned
about but not overly concerned about and
you can see it in terms of
prioritization so what they're asking
for in labor and environment is for us
to commit not to remove any legislation
not to roll back but the thing they're
really worried about is state aid so
they're worried that because brexit as
they view it is going to be bad for the
UK economy they recognize that the
government's going to be tempted to step
in to try and make up for the investment
the private investment shortfall and
they're worried they'll do so by pouring
a lot of cash into industries bribing
industries to move to the UK instead of
the EU and the like and this was hang up
some of them and this was difficult this
was initially of mainly a Corbin based
concern but obviously the rhetoric
around the new Johnson government has
also been one that's a bit more free
spending the talk and and this is what
they're concerned about of course this
is that this is one of the areas of
negotiation this is something that UK
says we will not have the EU says you
must and my take on this is and if you
look at the history of the negotiations
is the EU will move a bit and the UK
will have to move a lot if something is
going to be agreed I mean and also when
you read a lot of press coverage here in
the UK it's like oh you know the EU
aren't taking the Prime Minister's claim
seriously they absolutely are taking the
Prime Minister's camus seriously and
they've always been very clear we
negotiate with the British government so
if we have secretaries of state coming
out saying well you know our intention
is to diverge they're going to take that
very seriously and but of course the lot
of it is the outcome of negotiations
will be a compromise who gives in more
we will see but I think the start of any
negotiation you're going to you know put
a position that you that you think might
be your your harshest thumbs knowing
probably that you're not going to end up
there so the the I think the real
difficulty for any breaks it watch over
the coming months is going to be who's
saying what because in you it's not just
about the Commission you've got a new
European Parliament people representing
constituencies you know car
manufacturing industry in in in Germany
that feeling the move to stand up and
say things who are the real shapers here
the muses enjoyers and what do they say
is it just political stance I have to
say something or is it really an
indication of what the EU is thinking
and I think sort of disentangling the
politics from the policy position is
going to be really tricky and and on
this divergence debate there's actually
been a lot of confusion within the UK
about this because the EU is making
these demands on environment labor state
aid but these aren't demands about
product standards they're not demand
about if you want to sell into the EU
market you have to meet those product
standards if you're outside of the EU
they can no longer assume they aren't
they match they meet the criteria for
new products tender so they will check
them on the way in that's the default
we're leaving the EU single market we're
leaving the customs union we can have a
free trade agreement there are going to
be checks on our products going into the
EU what the EU are worried about are
that wig is that we're going to create a
super competitive environment
environment for businesses by
deregulating by propping them up with
loads of money and then making that a
precondition of tariffs and quotas free
access to the EU and one of the
discussions that we're going to have now
I think is whether that precondition is
a precondition for the entire trading
relationship or just for tariffs and
quotas free trades because if it's just
for tariffs and quotas free trade there
is a scenario whereby Johnson can say
well I'm not signing up to this and in
return we will accept that on certain
products there will be tariffs so for
example on agriculture and we haven't
talked about access to fishing waters
yet so that's another EU demand also
potentially on our fish exports to the
EU so there's this is where some of the
negotiating will happen and we will and
I'm not sure if it happens straightaway
you think there's no way this that stuff
we'll be tidied up in the first six
months or maybe not even in the second I
think it will get tidied up if it does
in at the end of the third quarter of
the year and the reason I think that is
that we've also got this other deadline
that we haven't spoken about yet which
is the first of July which is the
deadline for the UK asking the EU to
extend the transition period or not and
of course Johnson said he won't do this
I personally don't think he will do this
but in a way that creates its own
negotiation he comes in negotiating an
ecosystem you're all going to be asking
him about it in them in the media you
say are you going to extend Prime
Minister no why not no until we've
cleared that threshold it feels that
it's difficult to see any any there's
nothing saying that it has to be the UK
to extend the you know ask to extend the
transition the EU could potentially I
mean I I'm you know I think it's
unlikely at this point but who knows you
know we haven't solved these
negotiations haven't started once all
those discussions begin and you know
just the scale of the task it might be
that there will be pressure not from the
Commission or or you governments but it
might come from elsewhere because the
European Parliament have been very clear
we will not be rushed into this we want
time for public debate we want time to
scrutinize this disagreement and if
there are negotiations that have pushed
back beyond 2020 we want to be sure that
we're happy with that too because they
need to sign it off we've touched on
whether we play by the European rules on
Environment Labor all that sort of stuff
for social regulations but on product
regulations which you mentioned Sam
what's the sense of how much the
government wants to diverge either in
product standards all the way you get to
the same standard well where is that
going and how much on a sliding scale of
pain with the EU be willing to delay
products at the border even longer if we
weren't playing by their rules or they
just generally weren't happy with this I
think the thing to understand is that
once the UK has the flexibility to
change its product standards to diverge
the EU will treat it as if we already
have so actually what the hell is
built-in in terms of the delay at the
border yes so once you have the
flexibility divergent Retd as if you
already have the actual controls new
processes you face at the border or
in market when placing those products on
the European market are fixed and it's
quite a big leap in costs from what
exists now and my feeling with the
government's or the percentage although
variations are we talking about imagine
it's difficult to give exact percentages
of value I'll give you an example of a
product maybe that's easier so if you
export a product of animal origin to the
EU so some lamb outside of the EU single
market that product of an origin the
lamb will have to enter the EU via a
certified veterinary border inspection
post to a specific point of entry where
it will be subject to a hundred percent
document checks and 100 percent identity
checks and by the way those documents
will need to have been signed by vet the
rate of physical inspection can be fifty
percent or above although there is
precedent for the EU reducing that rate
of physical inspection via agreement the
EU is done agreeing with New Zealand
that does that so that's possible for
the UK so what I'm talking about here
this is the UK could have the exact same
rules as the EU on day one as it will do
and these controls will already be in
places and I what my feeling we're going
back to what does the government want to
do it wants to have this flexibility to
diverge I think if you talk to them in
practice they will acknowledge actually
in a lot of areas we choose not to but
in a way that doesn't matter because
once you've gained the flexibility to
diverge you're going to feel the pain of
divergence and my question for the
government then is you know what's the
point of getting this flexibility if
you're not going to do anything with it
give me some examples of what you want
to change and then you get examples on
yours not at the moment you can point to
a fuse to say on GM food maybe that's
something that's brought up and then
there's sort of theoretical examples
about financial services and data but if
you if you prod a little further you
never get anything specific and I think
you know there are three things one is
the e it's an insurance policy right
they have to protect and uphold
standards for their own consumers and
citizens so it is it is that second is
you know the UK is going to become a
third country so why should it be
treated differently to other third
countries I mean there is this real
precedent you know what we offer the UK
has to be negotiated it has to confront
you know our lawyers and Brussels have
to say that this is possible because
there are third countries around the
world are watching this they don't
necessarily
the same arrangement that the UK and the
EU will you know negotiate and reach but
but they would like more access to the
single market and one of the reasons why
they haven't been able to is because of
these sort of checks and then the fact
that the EU can't you know Trust say the
South Koreans to say well yeah we
conform set to final get entry you know
it there is a precedent here and it's
very difficult to change that overnight
even if you actually start from the same
point of departure so it's not really a
point of departure it's where you end up
and if you don't know where you end up
then you're going to have to sort of
cater for and this is and this is the
cost of freedom right so it to put to
put it sort of in in the language of
those those advocating for it in that
this is the price you pay to be able to
do what you want when it comes to a
domestic economy and sign new free trade
agreements with the rest of the world
and that freedom has a price and also
there's this assumption I think in the
UK that if we have a free trade
agreement we will trade tariff free with
the EU we might do but tariff free trade
under a free trade agreement is
conditional you have to be able to
demonstrate that the product you are
selling under exporting under that free
trade agreement was actually produced in
the UK and there's lots of criteria you
have to fulfil and that might be easy
for land to give that example is quite
easy to say well this land was produced
in Wales right but a car okay the
general rule when it comes to you free
trade agreements is view is you have to
demonstrate the 55% of the value of that
car was created in the UK in order to
qualify for tariff quota free trade if
you look around the car industry that's
not how much value is largely created in
the UK it's down more like 40 percent so
these are all issues that you have to
deal with and then even if you do
qualify the tariff and quite a few trade
you have to prove it and the cost of
demonstrating rules of origin compliance
I dunno the percentage for this is put
it between two and six percent of the
value of the product and this of course
makes the question means chief
government's done a lot of work on this
is how is the government communicating
with business and those manufacturers
and producers you know because it's not
just about government being prepared and
knowing what at once and the outcome of
negotiations and having that time to
implement that deal that you've reached
with the EU it's that all your
businesses have had time to adapt and
put those processes in place you know
have put aside that money for the extra
paperwork and all
you know that there is a real
communications question here and there
is a question of just simple you know
business preparedness so on the
timetable that Sam's talking about where
you don't really get down to the meaty
business until the very end of the year
business doesn't have time to get ready
business can react very quickly and they
will assume some time to prepare perhaps
for the worst-case scenario because it
will be doing it's not clear to me that
they are nuts because there's a sense
that they've been marched up and down so
many times that particularly the no deal
there but that no trade deal outcome is
still a possibility so are you as a
business and particularly small you know
it's more income to do it exactly do you
prepare for a no trade deal or do you
prepare for some kind of deal basically
and what does that basic deal cover so
there are lots of questions and I think
that pressure from business I assume
what color what do I ask you brother
yeah I mean dude have they been
relatively silent in this whole debate
business are we going to hear a raw or
are we going to during the actual trade
negotiations or are we just going to
hear quietly
I think difficult for big opponents as
they just sort of send their business
elsewhere
it's been difficult for business because
if you think that the consumer base for
them in the UK is largely split 50/50 on
leave remain lines coming out strongly
in favor of an outcome that could have
been portrayed as betraying brexit could
have cost them sales it could have cost
them as customers so that's been tricky
so far so I wonder what if once brexit
is delivered at the end of the month if
it becomes a bit easier for them to
start talking about the future
relationship and say well this isn't
about breaks it breaks it's happened
this is listen this is about the future
but I wonder if I'm not sure how much
they're going to cut through I do they
haven't been cutting through so far and
the question for me to go back to
Georgie's point about you know can they
get ready in time and the question you
asked is if we do have this free trade
agreement in place by the end of the
year and negotiate and I think that's
possible I'm in the camp exam that's
possible bells and whistles no I think
if we're talking about the broader EU UK
partnership it's not going to all be
done by the end of the year because
there's lots of areas of cooperation
defense security justice Home Affairs
and the Commission recognizes that the
UK and they trade they'd be happy to
park that know they've some of some of
it they will just continue to go they
might not part but it just will take a
bit longer
they'll be now they're trying maybe all
they'll just try and bridge the interim
period via unilateral type processes the
sort of the kind of processes we'd have
seen happen and an event of no deal but
the question for me is if we do head
towards this free trade agreement that
looks likely that will have a lot of
costs attached to it will be a vast
different vastly different from the
status quo are we going to move to that
agreement on January the 1st 2021 or if
we account for the bank holiday that say
January the second New Year's New Year's
Day the doll the day after and because
if we do go from status quo to that
future relationship as envisioned
overnight the kind of visible rupture
the visible impact at the border is
similar to having left without an
agreement in place so the question I
have for the government and I think
businesses will have as well is okay
this is your desired end destination are
you going to one once you've got that
once you've got it negotiated are you
going to ask for it to come in overnight
or you're going to talk to the EU about
maybe phasing this in gradually over
time so we're talking about more of a
death by many cuts rather than a
behaviour and that is a question for the
EU as well as how stringent are they
going to be on the 1st of January 2021
you know these will know that standards
on on the 1st of January 20 not what we
expect them to be the same so it's not
really that but it's all the you know
the checks along the border
we can't tested this yet we don't know
what it looks like we know that when
there was a lot of talk about no deal
that France had you know put parkings
and applicated parkings to prepare for
board checks will those exercises begin
again because maybe if you have a basic
deal you're going to have more checks
you're going to have more border
infrastructure who's testing that so I
think it's a question for the UK but
it's also and most definitely question
because there's three questions I think
there's there is does Boris Johnson once
he I don't think he'll extend the
transition period but once he has an
agreement in place will he want to avoid
a rupture and try and phase in the new
relationship maybe will the EU accept
this maybe and then there's just a
practical question of how do you phase
in this new relationship is very win
join the EU they phase in their
integration over time that's and when in
lots of free trade agreements a EU Japan
the car tariff reductions are phased out
over seven years but how do you phase in
friction how do you phase in checks
because every time you phase in a new
level of disruption you're going to
annoy someone you're going to hurt
someone so there is just the question
about do you want to do it gradually or
do you just rip the plaster off
overnight and when you look at lots of
trade associations EU trade associations
when they ask their members you know
what is the biggest cause of trade
disruption often it isn't tariffs it's
all that the non is the paperwork it's
the you know certification that the
iroquois it's all of those things and
actually i think when you've been part
of the same market you you don't realize
it's almost like pipes in a house all of
a sudden we've we've stripped away the
floorboards and we realize there's all
these pipes we want to now you know we
thought you should do a whole new
plumbing system and we just realize the
extent to which we were embedded in this
system and how we're going to have to
just start afresh and it's just going to
be complicated planning to do the
parliament building over the road you
touched on the timetable there in terms
of how the next year sort of pans out
but just tell me a bit about people
aren't used to following trade
negotiations closely what kind of a
phenomenon are they will we will we see
people going backwards and forwards how
many groups workstreams does this whole
thing get divided into do we ever hear
anything does it get hacked like a
submarine and sort of pop up about six
months later we find out what's going on
how do they work you say trade
negotiations work a certain way but this
is going to be a very different trade
negotiation partly because we're not
looking to reduce barriers we're going
to be basically erecting new barriers so
and also if we don't reach a deal by the
end of the year and we haven't extended
we can't return to the status quo so
it's a different negotiation all
together it's very difficult to know how
many work streams will be happening will
they be happening in parallel usually
the EU likes to sort of close one
chapter and then open another we know
that the UK that you wanted to negotiate
a security partnership are we going to
be able to separate that from our trade
negotiations so if talks on trade turn
really sour all those impact our
discussions on security it's it
in fact it's not clear at all what I
think is really important to recognizes
on the EU side it will be different in
that if it's a mixed agreement that is
an agreement that covers areas of EU law
and member state law then you'll have to
get the sign-off of the eu-27 the 27
government's you'll have to get the
European Parliament on board and you'll
have to get national parliaments and
possibly regional Parliament's on board
that's a lot of people so Barney a new
chef Anya who's the obviously that you
chief brexit negotiator has been sort of
brought it for his outreach he goes
round we've already seen him on his EU
tours he's not only meeting with
governments he's meeting with
Parliament's he's meeting with business
executives he's saying that these these
are our positions trying to see and test
where there might be Congress but for
the EU they can then turn around say
look really sorry our position is the
outcome of lengthy talks and Mike's not
only 27 governments but everyone else
and there's not much that we can do to
it to budge on this and because there
are so many people who need to give
their consent
it will mean that they're sort of
Powerman them room for maneuver will be
will be smaller at one point I would
make those I think everyone likes to
look for precedence so and when when
we're saying how long does it take to
negotiate a trade agreement people love
to say whether the EU Canada Agreement
it took seven years from from when it
began to completion and I'm just not
sure how you helpful that is in this in
this context because it's a vastly
different scenario as Georgie just
mentioned you do have this cliff edge at
the end of the year where everything
changes you can't return to the status
quo and the point I would make is the
reason trade negotiations often take a
long time it's not there's not technical
reasons it's not because it takes so
long to write those fourteen hundred
pages of texts I mean that takes a while
but actually quite a lot of its
boilerplate it's just copied and pasted
from elsewhere the reason they take a
long time is it's both parties that two
negotiating partners are waiting for a
politically opportune moment to make the
concept domestic concessions necessary
to get that agreement over the line so
in the case of the EU and Canada what
were they waiting for they were kind of
waiting for someone like Trump to throw
the world into turmoil and then the EU
and Canada cook say look we're going to
do this agreement as evidence of our
commitment to the rules-based system and
be
good good guys that's why that's why it
got signed in the end but in this case
we have a firm deadline we've got to get
it done in a year or else there's got
their consequences what does it look
like the government's plan is it looks
like they intend to try to start
something maybe even before they even
cross the channel across the Atlantic in
order to make a point that we're big
players here we've got another fish to
fry
so I don't think they know yet actually
what they want to do with the u.s. they
know they need to start negotiating with
them and I would add I would advise
beginning negotiating straightaway with
Donald Trump because he's Peter Pitt
petty if you don't negotiate with him
interest rate where we don't engage
there could be punitive measures applied
to the UK as punishment so of course we
should get negotiating with him but the
u.s. the u.s. clearly has an objective
which is to sign a comprehensive trade
agreement with the UK but that
comprehensive trade agreement requires
the UK to diverge from certain EU
approaches which means that we can't
remain aligned in areas such as food
standards with you with the EU so
they're trying to provoke that in a way
but for the UK what do we really want to
happen this year I don't think we know
yet we haven't had objectives published
of the u.s. a US UK negotiation what I
think will happen is that we're going to
have a big launch event so I started we
started the talks with the u.s. it will
be lots there being lots of fireworks
rum Rolfe and run roles that this will
excite quite a lot of people they will
the brexit supporters who always wanted
this will go yes and then what I think
will happen is we're going to try and
find something small related to trade to
negotiate with Donald Trump quickly a
limited defined agreement we will we
will try it so for it to give a
completely hypothetical example we will
support we will scrap the digital
services tax in return for the u.s.
excluding us from the Boeing Airbus
it can be as slim as that same as that
because then it can just be phase 1
ready for the November elections for
Trump so Trump can say in Goa got a
trade agreement with the UK with Japan
with Korea don't need Congress's of
course we do because it's a very
executive competence deal and then on
the Johnson side it said he can say look
we've we've done the first bit of a
trade agreement and now we'll
your time to negotiate the rest and in a
way I think that probably suits both
parties and also why not I mean in case
voting to me the you know it has voted
to leave the European Union and is going
to become an independent sovereign
country it makes sense for the
government to explore trade
opportunities with the US I think where
I would caution is that the u.s. like
the UK has its own interests it's the US
has made no sort of secret of the fact
that it wants to have a European
foothold you know and you've written a
lot about this you know being able to
demonstrate to the EU oh hi guys well
the UK you know has similar standards to
you they've accepted our demand so why
can't you the EU accept our demands so
there is a question of how much they're
going to try and use this deal with the
UK whatever shape it takes to then
dangle it in front of the EU gain
leverage over me and that's the other
thing as well I think you know a lot of
the time when we're talking about brexit
UK EU relations but also then the UK US
trade negotiations these aren't taking
place in isolation and actually the
commissioner for trade EU commissioner
for trade Phil Hogan was in DC just last
week wasn't he talking to the Americans
about opportunities to deepen trade
between the u.s. and the EU so all of
this is happening at the same time great
for trade nerds and people like us but
it's going to be a lot to follow
particularly for the UK government which
until the end of the year will still be
abiding by EU rules and have to adopt
any new lead you like energy legislation
you talk about a drumroll fanfare a
moment with the u.s. who else is at the
front of the queue for those sort of
moments
what other trips might receive so I
think we know the countries that have
been made priority so I think Australia
and New Zealand those negotiations could
begin quite quickly and they could
actually even conclude by the end of the
year because in a way what they're
asking of from the UK is easier to give
they just want us to remove some tariffs
if they don't necessarily they will
react to the EU UK negotiations and
respond and shape their demands
accordingly they're not the u.s. where
they can make demands at the UK that
shaped the UK's negotiations with the EU
the other countries Japan and and listen
I try and make this point quite a lot
which actually if we were really
thinking about this strategic
pragmatically the country we would
actually focus our efforts on is Japan
they're the third biggest investor into
the UK after the EU in the US and
they've been quite upset by brexit
they've been offended there's a lack of
trust now because they viewed the UK as
their route into Europe they see this as
a bit of betrayal and Japanese
investment in anecdotally seems to be
the seeping out to the UK slightly so in
terms of bit rebuilding bridges the
Japanese are important they're just
important for another reason which is
internationally actually we're in a
similar position to Japan now we're not
we're a big big important country but
we're not the u.s. we're not the EU
we're not China and this world these
trade wars are going on around us and
we're gonna have to navigate that
somehow and who are we going to want to
be doing that with one of those
countries is Japan and obviously Japan
it really wants the WTO for example to
me this is something that the UK
government has very been very clear
about we want the WTO to work as well we
wanted to try and resolve the dispute
settlement mechanism body that's just
been in paralysis since December 2018 so
very so there's this real commitment on
both sides to reap remote a rules-based
international order a you know
free-trade except for whatever those
grand sort of statements mean but there
is also scope there for politically and
that the political level to send a
strong signal of commitment and it's not
only about working with the EU and
working with the EU and international
organisations is complicated if your
negotiations aren't going very well
so who are you going to be working with
at that point and I think this is where
the UK government has an opportunity
actually is to really think there are
countries around the world looking to
the UK some thinking what role do you
want to play and it's now that the
government must be clear and trying
function and of course it doesn't it's
also got to be realistic though so we
are not you know there's lots of people
who do accept this but we're not as I
said we're not the u.s. we're not the EU
we're not China in these discussions we
are something different we are something
a bit smaller yes we've had more
flexibility to be nimble and yes we have
a commitment upholding the international
order but we're not just going to
walk into the WTO on day one and say
guys we're back and we're going to fix
it do anything I won't have any use that
people get annoyed but there are things
there are positive things we can do we
can help build coalitions we can act
positively in terms of adding resource
in terms of time money people to the
different sort of boring things that go
on in the International sort of
multilateral system within the WTO
around just looking at different
regulations and checking if they match
up is everyone okay these things build
build goodwill but this is the sort of
thing we should be focusing on I don't
think running headlong into a
negotiation with the US where Trump
Trump's view of trade policy as I put it
is is is akin to a protection racket you
know he ups the threat level by
threatening to impose tariffs and then
if you pay him some money he'll take
them away you know that's that's not a
good basis for a relationship but of
course we have to engage with him but
let's just be sensible about let me just
find out our relationship with the EU
going beyond the end of this year it was
always said in the past that we were
gonna be like Switzerland negotiating
forever but with the divergence that
we're talking about but not being
subject to any EU
courts is it gonna be different from
that or actually does the switch to the
model hold it'll be with us forever and
rumbling and we'll be constantly
updating lots of mini agreements all
over the shop what's our future well
first it's not really just about trade
and I think we you know we often focus
on trade because that's what's sort of
it looks like those are gonna be the
business yeah jazzy big obstacles but
actually it's much more comprehensive
than that and I think you know it's this
question about trying to get your own
weight you know when when we remember
say lots of people that you were a shark
in a pond now you're leaving the EU in
in the world you're going to be more
like a midsize fish in an ocean and it's
about influence it's about and it's
about trying to get other countries to
back your views and to you know be able
to try and somehow shape the global
agenda you need support for that and the
question then becomes where does the you
know what is the EU going to be for this
government and future government is it
going to be a priority yes or no but we
need to be the government needs to be
now and determining now its long-term
new strategy and this is what the report
that Sam was talking about earlier that
I that we the Institute for government
published last week and it's looking
about why actually you can't just it's
not cause you're leaving that that's it
you can cross out the EU and you can do
things fundamentally different the EU is
there it's the the world's largest
market on our doorstep we are going to
continue to be affected by certain rules
or regulations if anything in Northern
Ireland and we have an interest in
trying to influence those evils but as I
said it's beyond trade it's also that
security the question is how do you go
about that what resources do you need
and can you do anything if ministers are
just not that interested but also in
terms of will the political declaration
that's the document that lays out the
trajectory for these negotiations on the
future relationship acknowledges that
this agreement needs to be given the
space to evolve over time and we as you
said we're not just talking about trade
we're talking about other areas of
cooperation on social security justice
and Home Affairs defense research and
this is all going to be packaged into
some broader agreement you know so it's
going to be a partnership agreement that
has trade as a component part but lots
of other things and over time this will
change and there'll be structures to
allow for it to change we will continue
to meet with them every so often at in
the context of this broader partnership
and discuss bits maybe we want to tweak
maybe we want to update
so over the course of 10 15 20 years in
20 years time will it look exactly the
same as it looks a year from now no if I
decided to go a bit closer or move a bit
further no so it's we might not have the
same sock we might have them not have
the same type of Conservative government
again in five years time we might have a
Labour government and they might see the
relationship with the EU differently
they might want to renegotiate with it
this is going to be a constant process
and that's okay and if you're guessing
now looking in that digital crystal ball
twenty years from now we're in a sort of
future that was is close to the big deal
that Theresa May was talking about at
the end where you really are hugging the
EU institutions quite close I think
you're somewhere halfway across the
Atlantic you know I think it really we
often forget that the UK is changing
over the eve is changing also so a lot
of this depends on where the EU is going
and what it becomes do those member
states who want to do more do more or is
it that every Eva that we're all heading
in the same direction I think that's
going to condition a lot from what
happens to the --use relationship with
the UK but also what happens to the to
the EU and we know that you putting on a
conference this year where they're going
to be trying to sort of set a strategic
vision for the eve of the next 10 15 20
years but I think that that is important
and actually that's how it develops and
how it changes and what role different
member states play and what they want us
that you might condition the way that we
are as well George you know Sam thank
you both very much indeed thank you