In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the form
of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture. We’re concerned only with
a player’s on-field performance and their suitability for the role in question.
Today’s team is Bayern Munich, welcome to Sensible Transfers.
Despite winning the Bundesliga for a tenth time in a row,
Bayern Munich’s first season under Julian Nagelsmann wasn’t what it might have been.
They were eliminated early in the German Pokal and disappointingly by Villarreal
in the Champions League, meaning that the summer of 2022 needed to be about renewal.
And it has been: Bayern have already signed Noussair Mazraoui from Ajax,
probably the most rounded full-back on the market, and Ryan Gravenberch from the Dutch club,
too. Gravenberch might not be quite ready to be a week-to-week starter in midfield,
but there’s little doubting his potential, or the intrigue in seeing him grow into the
double-pivot positions currently occupied by Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka.
But while there are other issues facing Bayern, we’ve decided to tackle their most pressing need:
Robert Lewandowski has just a year left on his contract and will either need replacing this year
or next. Sadio Mane’s transfer from Liverpool has been completed
and he could no doubt operate as a No.9, but that’s an
option rather than necessarily the plan and would only mitigate Lewandowski’s departure.
Lewandowski has had an extraordinary career at Bayern Munich. In seven of his eight seasons he
has scored 40 all-competition goals or more, in addition to collecting eight straight Bundesliga
titles and, in 2020, a Champions League win. In 2021, he also, with 41 goals in the league alone,
broke the single season goalscoring record set by Gerd Muller all the way back in 1972.
So, Bayern are not just replacing a high-volume goalscorer,
but a modern icon. In addition to which, Lewandowski is also an intelligent presser
and a regular target for and receiver of forward passes in the attacking third. He
doesn’t really create chances for his teammates, so that’s not something we should worry too
much about – particularly not with the creative elements that exist elsewhere in the Bayern side.
If Lewandowski leaves this summer, which seems most likely,
there are actually very few candidates to replace him – Erling Haaland has gone to Manchester City,
Romelu Lukaku has returned to Inter Milan, while Gabriel Jesus has joined Arsenal and
probably lacked the appropriate penalty box presence anyway.
Our pick, then, is Lautaro Martinez.
Inter Milan are still facing financial limitations and,
most likely, they’ll be compelled to make a major sale this summer.
That should keep Martinez’s price reasonable for a club who have never spent more than
80m Euros on a single player and who have already spent significantly this summer.
Martinez’s physical profile is different to Lewandowski’s, he’s four inches
shorter (5ft8 to 6ft) and yet his goalscoring habits are quite similar. Both are right-footed,
but score a healthy percentage of their league goals with their left foot or their head.
Similarly, despite those physical differences and tactical contrasts between Bayern Munich
and Inter Milan, both players score their goals from roughly the same positions
and in similar volume. According to data provided by StatsBomb, Martinez also averaged more
first-time shots per 90 than any other player in the top-five leagues in the 21-22 season
which, again, would likely suit the kind of chances Bayern Munich tend to create.
While it’s also true that Lautaro Martinez has enjoyed his best seasons with a partner
– Edin Dzeko last season and Romelu Lukaku the year before,
both in a 3-5-2 – it’s not really fair to describe Bayern’s 4-2-3-1 as a single forward system,
given that Thomas Muller averaged 5.94 touches in the attacking penalty area per 90.
Bayern Munich also averaged 64.8% possession during Julian Nagelsmann’s first season,
so – given that domination and the number of players Nagelsmann’s side
commit forward – it’s hard to imagine him ever having to lead the line in isolation.
Lewandowski is virtually irreplaceable,
but Martinez is probably as good an alternative as it’s possible to find.
Another scenario might see Lewandowski stay until the end of his contract, in the summer of 2023.
In which case, Bayern would be in the business of succession planning,
which would call for an entirely different sort of transfer – perhaps someone capable
of providing goalscoring support from the bench and either buying the club time to
find a longer-term replacement or potentially growing into the starting role themselves.
One option might be Atletico Madrid misfit Matheus Cunha,
who has Bundesliga experience with Hertha Berlin, where he typically played from the left,
but has not really found a full-time role under Diego Simeone.
Cunha is a more rounded forward. His work off the ball is extremely good
and he presses well enough to feature in a Nagelsmann side.
Additionally, though, as well as being another penalty box goalscorer, he’s a more creative
centre-forward who has a craft and one-on-one ability in his game which many goalscorers lack.
He’s unlikely to score goals in the same volume as someone like Lewandowski,
or Lautaro Martinez for that matter, but he would be an interesting
option for a Bayern side with plenty of goalscoring threat in other positions.
A different sort of solution would be offered by Stuttgart’s Sasa Kalajdzic, who is nearly 6ft7
tall and yet, despite that size, is another highly rounded player who could develop fairly quickly.
Kalajdzic is reasonably good without the ball, that would be another attraction for Nagelsmann,
and for someone so conspicuous by his size, also has a subtlety which, like Cunha,
would make him an interesting addition to Bayern Munich’s other attacking players.
Now 25, the Austrian managed to average almost a goal every other game for a limited Stuttgart
team in 2020-21, before missing the first half of his second season at the top level
with a serious shoulder injury. Six goals in 14 comeback games,
again for a struggling side who only avoided relegation on the final matchday,
should assuage doubts that his first season was any kind of anomaly.
He's a very modern targetman. A better description would be a complete forward – he’s left-footed
and is as much of a threat in the air as you’d expect the Bundesliga’s tallest player to be,
but he can score goals and create chances with finesse and flair
as well as through his physical advantages. He’s clever with the ball and what separates him from
other players who are just tall is his vision, and his awareness of the movement around him.
He would be a project, no doubt, but we’re shopping for the long term
and that makes Kalajdzic – who, with his contract due to expire in 2023,
would be considerably cheaper than Martinez - a sensible transfer.