- As the climate changes,
we hear so many stories about places in crisis
from extreme weather.
And many of those places
are in the news over and over again.
So we began to wonder,
where will it be safe to live
in 10, 30, or even 150 years?
We asked six scientists this question,
and let's just say-
- Well, there are really no safe places, right?
- But as we dug deeper in our conversations
about climate migration,
each expert helped us understand
where and why people will move in the future.
And as it turns out,
when multiple environmental risks are weighed together,
a prediction about the least risky place to live
in the United States is actually possible.
At the end of our episode,
we're going to call the government
of the least risky county in the United States,
and see what they think about this
and if they're prepared.
So stay with us,
and if you like this kind of science-based perspective
on extreme weather, climate change, and how to prepare,
give us a like, subscribe,
and let us know what you think
in the comments below.
(ominous music)
First, let's start by looking
at the most basic part of climate change,
which we know is that global temperatures are rising.
We spoke to two different experts
who collaborated on a study
exploring what they call the Human Climate Niche.
And it turns out that humans prefer to live
where the average annual temperature
is between 50 and 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
- If you picture a band in North America
running from roughly Chicago or Boston
in the North on over to Seattle
and then down to, oh, roughly say, Atlanta,
it takes up most of the mid continent
in North America and almost all the West Coast.
And the surprising thing to me as an archeologist
is that humans have had that temperature preference
for as far back as we can easily go
in the archeological record.
That's to say back to about 5,000 to 6,000 years ago.
People have always been concentrated
within that temperature band.
- [Maiya] The one degree of global warming
we've experienced hasn't caused mass migration
in the US just yet.
Phoenix is one of the fastest growing
and hottest places in the US,
but we know the world is getting hotter.
- You look at three degrees centigrade warmer world,
you find that we could have 3 billion people
in a three degree sea warmer world
living at average temperatures,
above what's experienced by pretty much anyone
anywhere on the planet today,
by a few spots in the Sahara.
And I don't think that those 3 billion people
would necessarily choose to stay
in those kind of extraordinary climate conditions
if they had the choice to leave.
And that then raises the obvious question of,
are they gonna come and live with us in these continents,
and are we gonna welcome them in?
- [Maiya] Ken Caldeira put it in even more specific terms
when thinking about temperature
and where we'll be comfortable in the future.
- The temperature bands moving,
I think they're moving something like 30 feet a day,
so if you wanted to stay in the same temperature,
you need to move 30 feet northward a day.
10 years, you'd, on average,
have to move 20 miles north.
- Temperature is important,
but I don't think temperature alone
is likely to be the first factor
to cause climate migration in the US.
It seems likely that climate migration
will be caused by a mix of factors.
Astrid Caldas, with the Union of Concerned Scientists
put it like this.
- With climate migration,
people leave because they have to leave
after a big disaster that there's no turning back.
Their house has been destroyed,
they don't have insurance,
they don't have the resources.
They move to be with,
you know, relatives or near relatives,
or they go to a place
where the cost of living is lower,
where they can afford it.
They just can't stay where the disaster hit, right?
- [Maiya] And client migration is already happening.
Wildfires, hurricanes, and rising temperatures
are pushing people to move.
As temperatures across the Arctic rise,
many Alaskan native communities
have been forced to relocate.
And after the campfire burned down
over 11,000 homes in Paradise,
survivors scattered all across California and the US.
- The actual boundaries of Earth's land
are going to be changing.
As our seas rise,
we're no longer going to have the same land available
to us as was before.
And as we lose that ice from the Greenland ice sheet,
it actually shows up most strongly
at places far away from Greenland.
People in, for example, the Gulf Coast of the US
are feeling the influences of losing ice.
This is causing sea level rise,
which includes coastal erosion,
salt water from the ocean
getting into fresh water resources on the coast.
We can also experience flooding,
not just along the coastal edge of the continent,
but also farther inland
because rising ocean waters
can change our groundwater.
- So clearly, the least risky places
are not oceanfront.
Many of the places most at risk of sea level rise
will see more hurricanes
and the South will likely get too hot.
We spoke to another expert about an extreme event
that causes an increase in climate migration every year,
wildfires and the smoke they produce.
- In California, a lot of insurance companies
are canceling people's homeowners insurance
because of the risk of fire.
Folks are having to buy a secondary insurance
that is cost prohibitive for a number of individuals.
It's basically like five times
the rate of typical homeowners insurance.
- So areas with high wildfire risk are out.
Actually John was a part of a study
that used six risk criteria to rank the climate risk level
of every county in the US.
We discussed a few of these factors already
in extreme heat, sea level changes,
and wildfire danger.
The study also accounted for economic damages
from rising energy costs, real estate destruction,
plus low work and crop productivity.
So what did they find?
The top 30 least risky counties
were found in the Northwest.
Michigan, Colorado, Virginia,
and a high concentration in the Northeast
And the one they rated as the least risky,
Lamoille County in Vermont.
We reached out to Lamoille County
and asked them how aware they are of their position
as a potential climate haven
and how prepared they feel
for an influx of climate refugees.
- Well, we know it's a lovely place already, (chuckles)
so, the county as a whole,
we've got somewhat less than 30,000 people.
The commercial center
is probably the town of Morrisville,
but again, that's less than 10,000 people.
Well, we talked about climate migration
a great deal in Vermont.
There's been a number of media stories
about people moving to Vermont
to escape extreme weather on the coast
or Western wildfires.
One of our board members right here
moved here from Brooklyn
after her apartment flooded after Sandy.
- Our apartment flooded
so that was a wake up call, I think.
And we literally ran for the hills.
We packed up our life and we moved to Vermont.
I'm very aware of the privilege that I had
in being able to move up here.
And when I do think of myself as a climigrant,
I say that very lightly because I was not fleeing famine,
I was not fleeing war, you know.
I didn't have to walk with just my clothes on my back
and my family across an international border.
I didn't have to live in a detention camp.
You know, I just got like,
I got in my Toyota and I drove up here.
And I do think Vermont is making efforts
to be a hospitable place to resettling refugees.
- We have a lot of work to do to be ready.
We have a housing shortage in Vermont
and some of our smaller towns and villages
don't have the water or wastewater capacity
to really develop a lot of housing.
So we're spending a lot of time
looking at how we will manage
with a lot more people coming here
because we do anticipate that.
- But as we look towards our future,
how do we prepare ourselves
to be as resilient as possible
in the face of a changing climate?
- So there are many different challenges
that we face as the climate changes,
and the best way for us both to adjust
to the changes that we know are going to come,
but also take the strong action needed
in order to reduce the pace of change,
those are all elements that require us to work together
and communicate with each other,
and really build collaborative spaces
from the local level
all the way up to the international level.
So I really encourage people to think
not just about their physical safety
but also the kind of emotional and workspaces
that we can create connections
that are really gonna help us
be able to face these challenges.
- Have you or anyone you know
moved as a result of extreme weather?
Do they think of it as climate migration
and what kind of extreme weather
and climate would it take for you to leave your home?
Let us know in the comments,
we'd love to hear your thoughts.
And as always, be safe.