You cannot at this point, determine the value of precious metals.
But two large International, derivatives markets.
And we're traitors convene because availability of certain products is
different across different parts of the market and it signifies that,
that all of that mountain of reserve of silver, specifically Gold's
not quite here yet, but if silver specifically is now dwindling in the
market knows it.
And so the physical markets not only have that decouple from a premium
perspective over spot spot itself is
Come down, you're seeing the cracks in the dam of that International
spot Market.
We have a fractured Market.
I do think the fundamentals are saying, we're already in a recession,
but but they're not going to acknowledge it.
And I think the mainstream media is built upon a rising stock market.
That's what they talk about all the time.
It's best for their investors and the people that, you know, sponsor,
those programs, be honest with you.
It's, it's incentivizing them to continue to pump up the stock market.
It's basically how they make their money.
You know, we don't have that problem.
So we can I think tell more of the truth and get ahead of, you know,
where the crashes are going to come and warm people.
Yeah, it people are going to continue to do it that narrative itself
sustainer of them and look at AMC, when Wall Street bets bid that up.
It was a zombie company which had incredible returns for a while
because people were getting in and pumping it up and that basically is
a microcosm of the entire Market.
People are going to pump it up because it looks good in their pension
fund. Their 401K companies need that to trade stock because it's how they
Their business also stock prices are up and Company.
Fundamentals are strong enough.
They can get more debt.
So it all it's all self-sustaining until the point Elijah in which the
fundamentals can't support it anymore.
And what happens is you have this waterfall down, you have this big
crash down, where everybody realizes it, and the whole Confidence Game
just sort of comes apart and and that largely is what most of these
derivative markets are the bond market.
The stock market, even the US dollar.
It's all a confidence game.
And when people lose
Lose confidence.
When they start to see reality, which I think they're starting to.
Now, it's one that all comes crashing down.
You got to remember about the stock market, not every share trades,
when the price is going up.
If one percent of shares on average, you're trading on the S&P, which
is about the normal.
And a given day, one percent of shares trade and the S&P goes up 2%,
It's 2% of all the shares, not just the ones traded.
So it's not like all that money went into pump up all the shares.
Okay.
What happens is the
Marginal demand for shares drives, the price for the entire basically,
reservoir of shares.
And it's misleading.
As to the health of the market.
That's what the stock market is, basically decoupled from the economic
fundamentals, people on the margins are trading the shares up.
A lot of passive money's coming through DTS and Pension funds and
that's what spitting up the market, but it's not as though everybody's
out there saying we think
Tesla needs to canoe to go higher.
Apple needs to go higher IBM.
Needs to go higher.
These biotech firms need to go higher.
It's not fundamental driving them.
It's the marginal trade on stocks and people wanting it to go up and
it doesn't take much.
It takes about one percent of the market to say, we want to go up the
entire Market to move up.
But those are illusory games because, like I said, it's not back one
for one with all the dollars going in.
It's a marginal trading affecting the whole.
So when it comes down, that's why it waterfalls down.
All that illusory value, that wasn't back dollar for dollar across.
The entire complex, it is going to disappear basically.
And that's where you get your big crashes call.
I think it'll be like a 1929 type of Crash.
It'll be one of the worst crashes we've had in history when it finally
happens.
And the reason I say that is I chart things over big cycle.
So we look at contract, if waves over Eddie year Cycles, we look at
nation-state waves or Empire ways, which are about 240 260 years, and
then we looked at economics across 70 years.
For example, a statistic.
I've given out a couple times on my program if you look at the global bond.
Markets, there has been a falling rate of interest on bonds for 700
years.
So think about that Elijah.
This is before.
Anybody came over to America, you know, and Built America before we
had markets.
This is when the world was a much smaller place, why have bond yields
consistently over 700 years, been falling to the point.
They are now.
And what does that Snapback look?
Like?
That's a snapback that has nothing to do specifically with the dollar
the pound, the Euro, any of these Fiat Creations.
This has to do with the way.
Way the world has assess risk and it's in its growth phase and its
expansion phase will.
Now, look at the economic fundamentals.
We have people that don't have enough food.
We have Rising inflation.
We have massive debt, all over the world.
Every currency is coming under pressure.
We're having geopolitical concerns.
We're having a massive fight for all Commodities.
Not only food, base Metals things like potash and fertilizer.
I mean, everything has kind of come into this point at which we don't
have enough.
And so, that said,
100 Year trend of falling Bond rates has to reverse, you're going to
see much higher debt to we're probably cracks that bond market and
that's going to lead a route of the stock market as well.
And I think we're going to have a big crash and I think it could even
be bigger than 1929 because I think is going to be across the world
because I don't look at the economic fundamentals of any but maybe one
or two countries and see them as being positive.
I see the net neck being overall net - yeah, I think it's almost going
to be a probably be more than a dollar for dollar exchange from the
stock and bond markets, and a precious metals.
Because if you think about Elijah, a lot of people in stock,
Ox and bonds.
It said whole passive investing 401K investing traditional Finance
tells you to get into those sectors, and if you go to work, you have a
401k, you may have your choice of seven funds.
But if you look in detail, those seven funds, they're investing in the
same overall markets.
It may be small cap versus large capture still in the stock market,
you know, it may be Emerging Market bonds versus US bonds, but you're
still into debt markets.
And so that flows went into push that up and when that woman that
comes back, you only have about
Half a percent of all the US investment into precious metals and
around the world a little bit higher.
But it's only a small percentage points.
So when that money comes out of those markets, it's going to flood
into precious metals and people are going to panic when those other
markets are going through the big crash and they're going to bid the
price of precious metals even into a bubble.
At some point.
I shall come on your show and we're going to be talking about the
precious metals bubble and maybe even how to get out of it and how to,
you know, leverage your way out of that market to take your gains
while saving some for the long term and
And I think we're maybe a couple of years away from that, but that
definitely will happen.
The precious metals markets will be buoyed by people panicking out of
and selling these other markets and looking for safe places to put
their money.
Yeah, the miners are historical enter valued when you look at precious
metal. So if you look at the recent bull market from precious from gold, for
example, from 2016 to now the miners have not participated in that there.
I think the is it the human the GTX are somewhat like 60 percent below
their 2011 highs last time gold the first time gold hit 1900.
And before it came back down, so gold and silver came back down to
2016 and the miners went with them, but then miners never Rose 2016,
20 22.
So if you look at it from a ratio perspective, the miners, I think
historically undervalued at least for an entire generation, my
generation at least and maybe dating back another generation, you
know, to win the Boomers were first getting started investing.
That's a huge pattern and it's a buy signal for the market.
Now a lot of people are afraid to get in that market because it's
It's low priced and it's priced below the net asset value of the
metals in the ground.
Meaning it's like going and getting gold for pennies on the dollar
because you know, they're going to mine it, you know, they're going to
make money and you're getting it for a fraction of what that gold is
actually going to bring later.
Even at current prices.
We're not even talking about when gold and silver getting next leg of
the Bim.
So it's a cheap way to get gold.
You're all taking on some risk circuit speculative, but it's a
historically cheap way to do it.
But the mainstream media will talk about because it's not in momentum.
The only time the mainstream media will talk about stuff is when it's
in momentum.
So after that market gets raging, the precious metal Market, is Raging
no, come back and say, oh, yeah, we told you all along.
This is going to happen.
Of course, they didn't.
So I wouldn't listen to mainstream media.
I would look at the fundamentals of the market and the fundamentals of
Market are telling us that the miners are historically undervalued and
they're going to snap back there making a lot of money right now.
They're having good earnings reports and when that money comes out of
say growth in tech stocks and looking for a safe place, you know
people's portfolios are going to come to mind cetera because its
historical interview, people are going to go back to Value investing.
The Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett wave.
Investing is going to come back and go get some point.
I was riding the condition red call.
I know some people mock that a little bit and said, yeah, Rob, I mean
we've been saying this for years, but I think it actually has
happened.
The above-ground stockpiles are dwindling, you look at them on comex.
It's maybe 40% of what it was a year and three months ago, 15 months
ago, part of that was due to Silver.
Squeeze a little over calendar year ago, but the continued buying of
the physical after that.
And I talked with a lot of suppliers, I talk with Andy from Miles,
Franklin is out in San Diego with him last week.
We had a really long conversation, face-to-face over this, and what
he's saying, and I have other friends that are also have run precious
metals businesses and what we're seeing, Elijah is the spot Market is
no longer the spot, price is no longer determined by comex in London
by the US and London.
What's happening is wholesalers.
Have their own spot metal prices and they can be 20 to 30 cents
difference or even more uncertain products.
Why?
Because one wholesaler may be better at getting
Ours than rounds one.
Whole seller may be better at getting Eagles versus Maples.
And so you're seeing the real dynamics of the actual availability of
each silver and gold product commanding different spot prices, not
premiums only Elijah but spot prices.
And what that means Elijah is we have a fractured Market you cannot at
this point, determine the value of precious metals, but two large
International, derivatives markets, and we're traitors convene because
availability of
Certain products is different across different parts of the market and
it signifies that that all of that mountain of reserve of silver.
Specifically Gold's not quite here yet.
But if silver specifically is now dwindling in the market knows it.
And so the physical markets, not only have they decouple from a
premium perspective over spot spot itself is breaking down.
You're seeing the cracks in the dam of that International spot market
and it's crashing.
And I think that couple with the lme debacle and
Nickel and their inability to control that market is really affecting
The credibility specifically the London OTC market.
And I think what we're seeing in the physical Market is going to
eventually crack The credibility of the comex here in the US and you
see those signs.
And it really means that things are moving along and we really are in
a deep shortage.
I think what's happened in silver.
If you look at the commitment of Traders report, it's almost an even trade.
Now, there's still a net short.
And so, I think last time, I looked last week, last week stated will
come out this week.
And I'll look at it by the end of the week.
But but it's almost even in silver.
So, used to have massive shorts, and now not so much and in gold or
slowly liquidating short positions.
So, I think the derivative Market is kind of figured out where we've
got bull market conditions here and I think they know that the price
is going to go up.
And I think we're early days on that yet though.
I don't see the sign that they're about to, you know, silver is going
to 50.
But I do think we'll get there and I think it's going to be
highlighted by a strategic physical shortage of silver.
While I should silver is used everywhere, phones military, computers,
you know, everything medical devices Silver's everywhere.
And if we have more geopolitical issues that leads to more hot Wars,
tons of silver is used in the military.
The demand is going to be outrageous.
I was just talking with a friend.
And of mine who said we actually replace nickel.
In nickels, during World War Two was silver.
Because nickel was needed for armaments.
Well, now we can't do that.
We can't replace nickel with silver.
So what are we going to put in our coins?
We're running out of metals, to put in the coins, to eventually.
You may not have coins and because not only are the precious metals,
getting more precious Elijah.
The base metals are getting more precious.
And so that's really where we are.
Now.
Is it going to happen tomorrow?
Probably not.
But are we add a point which we can confidently, call.
The fact that there is a severe shortage of silver.
Yes. And that
Yes, we're going to see a bubble market and it's going to go to levels
of which we've never seen.
But first, The credibility of those, those derivative markets.
I talked about in Lebanon, in the u.s., You know, have to be affected
and they are, we saw would help them with happened with the lme.
I think more people are questioning the trades on the comex as that
awareness builds.
And, again, it's a confidence game, all derivative markets are a
confidence game and it's going to happen fast when it happens.
The markets are just, the people are going to stop believing the
markets. When they stop believing the markets and it will happen.
Literally.
Overnight.
It's a slow build and then it's a Cascade down to where everybody
says. Oh, yeah.
I mean, we don't believe that market and when you see that being
talked about on, CNBC, that's when you know in your cab drivers
talking about that's when you know, we're there.