The January 15th 2022 eruption of the previously little known Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai volcano
has likely forever changed the world of volcanology.
Just like during Pelee's 1902 eruption and the 1980 eruption of Mount Saint Helens obvious
warning signs which in hindsight now seem obvious of the disaster were seemingly missed
as the associated dangers were previously unknown to science.
Whereas at Pelee the warning sign was a highly pressurized incandescent eruption plume that
marked a change in the nature of the eruption, at Mount Saint Helens it was the growth of
a several hundred foot high bulge.
And, at Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai a moderately sized eruption on January 14th removed a section
of the island, allowing for seawater to infiltrate the volcano's magma conduit.
Although this was a first since modern geology was created, very similar eruptions have also
occurred in the past 11,650 years that destroyed similarly large islands in eruptions which
were somewhat similar to Hunga Tonga's now infamous eruption.
For example, around 700 BCE, a large island existed at Iwo Jima.
Then, a powerful volcanic eruption occurred, destroying it and perhaps forming a section
of the volcano's mostly submerged several mile wide caldera.
Since then, new volcanism has occurred, and this has been significantly uplifted by more
than 100 meters.
What was previously a beach in 1950 is now 14 meters or 46 feet above sea level.
This island will most likely one day also be destroyed in a catastrophic eruption in
a manner that resembles Hunga Tonga's event.
However, Iwo Jima is not the only submarine caldera or island to be destroyed in recent
times.
There is also the 1650 eruption of the Kolumbo in Greece, which sent destructive pyroclastic
flows and tsunamis all the way to the island of Santorini.
Or Krakatau which produced caldera forming eruptions in 540 and 1883.
Although we are still trying to understand the circumstances which can create a repeat
eruption similar to Hunga Tonga on January 15th, I have created two criteria to help
identify volcanoes which serve as candidates for similar future eruptions.
First, it must be a submarine volcano with a potential eruption vent at a depth of shallower
than 200 meters or less than 200 meters above sea level.
Second, it must have a several kilometer wide preexisting caldera, preferentially one which
formed in the last 10,000 years.
This may seem self-explanatory, but volcanoes with a history of collapse events and caldera
forming eruptions are more likely to produce similar repeat events in the future.
Thus, I have compiled a list of 16 volcanoes which largely fit this description and could
in the next several thousand years produce another caldera forming eruption that either
deepens the existing caldera, forms a new one, or destroys most of an island if one
exists.
I have listed these at the top which I deem most likely to produce a similar future event
while volcanoes at the bottom are least likely to produce an eruption.
Although this may simply be due to the fact of how thoroughly mapped a section of the
Pacific Ocean is, 8 of these entries are located in a chain of activity between New Zealand,
Tonga, and Fiji.
They include both the Tofua and Niuafo'ou volcanoes as these contain visible shallow
calderas which cause the island to have the appearance of a ring.
I have included Hunga Tonga on this list at it was suggested that the volcano does not
always produce a single caldera forming eruption every 1,000 years but rather a series of large
closely spaced eruptions.
I included the Krakatau volcano as not only has it produced 2 holocene caldera forming
eruptions but its 1883 eruption was the closest eruption in terms of what was observed to
Hunga Tonga's eruption.
I have also included both Kolumbo and Santorini in Greece, the submarine Kuwae caldera in
Vanuatu, two volcanoes in the Northern Mariana Islands, Iwo Jima, and the Kikai volcano.
Of course, it is difficult to definitively determine which of these volcanoes will produce
another similar eruption in the next 10,000 years.
This list is largely speculative so governments and people in the region can hypothetically
prepare for an unlikely worst case scenario.
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