Hopes that New Caledonia might become the 194th member of the United Nations have been dashed.
On 4 October 2020, voters in the Pacific territory voted against independence from France.
But, as I'll explain, this is far from the end of the story.
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Hello and Welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I talk
about international relations, statehood, independence and the origins of countries.
While we tend to think that the era of colonialism is over, around the world there
are in fact 17 places that remain on the United Nations list of non-self-governing territories.
Ten of these are controlled by the United Kingdom and three are under the United States.
However, two remain under French rule: French Polynesia and New Caledonia.
The latter of these - New Caledonia - recently came to international attention when,
on 4 October 2020, it held a referendum on independence.
Coming just under two years since the last vote on whether to break away and become a
fully sovereign state, there was a sense that it might well opt for statehood this time round.
However, while the margin between the two sides was certainly smaller this time,
the voters of New Caledonia nevertheless decided to retain the territory's formal links to France.
But the story certainly isn't over.
In fact, there's every chance there'll be yet another vote within two years.
And while this may well lead to independence,
it seems very possible that this will also see a narrow victory for those who want to
retain French sovereignty, as we'll see it's what happens then that's far from clear.
By way of background, New Caledonia lies in the South Pacific.
Sitting about 1300 kilometers, or 800 miles, off the east coast of Australia,
its closest neighbour is Vanuatu - just 630 kilometres, or 390 miles, to its east.
Meanwhile, France, the metropolitan power - as the
colonial state is often called - lies 17,000 kilometres or 10,500 miles away.
In terms of size, at around 18,000 square kilometres, or 7,000 square miles,
New Caledonia is around the same size as Slovenia or Kuwait.
If it were a member of the United Nations, it would rank as 151st
of the organisation's current 193 members.
In terms of population, the 2014 census showed that the territory had
around 270,000 inhabitants made up of a number of different ethnic groups.
The largest single community are the indigenous Melanesians,
the Kanaks, representing around 40 of the population.
Then there are the Europeans; predominantly of French origin,
they make up roughly 30 percent of the territory's inhabitants.
The remaining 30 percent or so is made up of those of mixed descent,
Polynesians from neighbouring territories, and roughly 3 from Indonesia and Vietnam.
While a Melanesian population has existed in New Caledonia for five thousand years,
the first European to reach the territory was the British explorer, Captain James Cook,
in 1774; who named the mountainous island after his homeland: Scotland.
However, the story really begins when it was conquered by France in 1853.
Although it was first used as a penal colony, by the end of the 19th century
other settlers had begun to arrive.
In 1946, New Caledonia was one of 72 territories around the world
placed on the United Nations list of non-self-governing territories.
However, in 1958 France held a referendum on a new constitution.
As part of this process, its 20 overseas colonies, which were included in the process, were told that
if they voted against the proposals they would then have the option to be granted independence.
New Caledonia voted 98 percent in favour of the constitution.
This was read as support for remaining under french control.
And even though France granted most of its colonies independence just two years later,
New Caledonia stayed under French rule.
In the years that followed, the situation began to change rapidly.
Following the discovery of nickel deposits in the 1960s, there was an influx of European settlers.
At the same time a growing number of Polynesians also began to move to the island.
All this meant that the native Kanak community now became a minority.
This not only saw a rise in inter-communal tensions,
a pro-independence movement now began to emerge.
In 1986, UN General Assembly rResolution 41/41
placed New Caledonia back on the list of non-self-governing territories.
Meanwhile, France had already decided to organise a new referendum on independence.
This took place on 13 September 1987.
However, the poll was boycotted by pro-independence movements which
opposed the decision to grant a vote to newly arrived settlers.
On a turnout of 59.1 percent, 98.3 voted to remain a part of France.
Over the following months tensions grew, and in early 1988 a particularly serious
incident prompted a peace process leading to the so-called Matignon Agreement.
Under terms of this deal, which was confirmed by a referendum,
a vote on independence would be permitted 10 years later.
In the meantime, steps would be taken to promote Kanak economic development.
As the 10-year deadline expired, the sides reached a new agreement.
Rather than an immediate vote on statehood, this deal - Nouméa
Accord - instead provided another major step towards potential independence.
As well as granting full recognition of Kanak identity, and creating a New Caledonian
citizenship, it gave the territory self-rule over a range of areas.
But, perhaps the most importantly, it also put in place a formal roadmap for an independence vote.
Starting in 2018, the people of New Caledonia would be permitted
to hold up to three referendums on sovereign statehood before 2022.
Again this agreement was confirmed in a referendum; this time 72 percent voted in favour.
In line with the Accord, the first referendum was held on 4 November 2018.
In the lead-up to the vote, it seemed clear that the decision would be against independence.
While the Kanak population was largely in favour of sovereign statehood,
the other communities seem firmly against - not least of all because of the large
subsidy France gave to the territory every year.
Indeed, some observers had suggested the votes against independence
could be as large as 70 percent.
It therefore came as a surprise when the final figure
ended up being far closer than anyone had expected.
With a turnout of around 81 percent, voters
rejected statehood by 56.4 percent to 43.6 percent.
Given the narrow margin of this first vote,
it soon became clear that there would indeed be a second vote on independence.
It was this referendum that took place on 4 October 2020.
Interestingly, this time round the turn out for the vote was even higher than the first one.
85.7 percent of registered voters took part.
But, yet again, voters rejected independence.
However, the vote was even narrower.
This time voters rejected independence by 53.26 percent to 46.74 percent - with 71,
533 voting in favour and 81, 503 against.
As expected, the result was warmly welcomed by those who supported the link with France.
It was also welcomed by the French Government,
which still regards New Caledonia as an important strategic base in the Pacific.
But for all the jubilation by the anti-independence campaigners, there's no
disguising the fact that the gap between the two sides dropped from 13 percent to just 7 percent.
Of course, what will be interesting to see is how the voting figures actually break down.
What are the explanations for this narrowing gap?
Was it down to better mobilisation of voters on the day? Or is it down to
a genuine growing support for statehood amongst the wider non-Kanak population?
And then there's the age issue.
Every year sees younger voters coming on to the electoral roll.
How does this change things?
All these factors will no doubt be studied in detail in the coming months.
But, for the meantime, the big question that will now be asked is what happens next?
One thing is certain: this is not the end of the story.
As noted, the Nouméa Accord
stipulates that the territory can have up to three referendums before 2022.
In order to initiate another vote, it will take a third of the votes in the legislature.
Given that pro-independence forces roughly control half the legislature,
it seems highly likely that we will see yet another vote within the next two years.
While it's obviously not possible to say how that vote will go, in many ways the
more important question is what happens if voters reject independence for a third time.
According to the Accord, if statehood is rejected
for a third time then the parties are expected to "consider the situation".
What this means in actual terms isn't entirely clear, but there are several points to consider.
For a start, there's clearly a large body of opinion that wants independent statehood.
It's obvious that they will want to have further chances to have a say on this.
Balanced against, this it's also clear that holding a referendum
on the subject every couple of years will be destabilising.
Constant referendums - or 'neverendums', as they've been called - will keep society
divided and will almost certainly draw away attention from other key issues.
For this reason, it may well be the case that the decision is taken by the sides
to take a break before having another vote.
This could be for perhaps five or ten years.
In addition, a guarantee could be given to have another vote every five or ten years thereafter.
In fact, such an arrangement could actually be rather beneficial.
Apart from the greater stability it would offer New Caledonia,
it would also give supporters of independence the security
of knowing that there will be future opportunities to achieve their ambitions.
More to the point, it would also ensure that France remains fully engaged with the territory.
If it knows that it faces the prospect of a regular vote on independence,
it can't afford to become complacent.
New Caledonia is just one of two French colonies on
the UN's list of non-self-governing territories.
However, it's proving to be reluctant to embrace independence.
That said, while it's just rejected the opportunity to become a fully sovereign
state for a second time, it's clear that the issue of statehood isn't going to go away.
It now seems almost certain that we'll see yet another referendum in 2022.
This raises the question of what happens then.
Officially, the 1998 peace agreement opens the way for further consultations.
At that point, in reality, even if this third referendum fails it seems
likely that the option of further votes will have to remain on the table; but perhaps with a break
to take stock of the situation and allow further greater gaps in between future referendums.
Interestingly, and as an aside, the latest decision to reject
independence now means that there could in fact be a rather interesting race on.
Which will become independent first? New Caledonia or old Caledonia - Scotland.
Let me know in the comments below.
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