THIS WEEK IT WAS REVEALED THAT EXXON WOULD APPLY FOR AN
EXEMPTION TO THE U.S. SANCTIONS IN PLACE IN RUSSIA THAT WOULD
LET THEM RESUME A SET OF OIL DEALS WITH THE RUSSIAN OIL
COMPANY THAT COULD BE WORTH TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS, AND THAT
FROM A NUMBER OF POINTS OF VIEW, AND ESPECIALLY FROM OUR POINT OF
VIEW, WAS ONE OF OUR BIG FEARS.
THAT'S A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY
THEORETICALLY BEING HANDED TO PEOPLE AND CORPORATIONS WHO ARE
WELL REPRESENTED IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION BECAUSE OF THE
SECRETARY OF STATE, REX TILLERSON -- HOWEVER AT LEAST AT
PRESENT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY MIGHT NOT GET WHAT THEY WANT, THIS
STATEMENT WAS PUT OUT BY THE TREASURY SECRETARY --
TWO THINGS HERE.
ONE, I'M LEGITIMATELY SHOCKED.
AND TWO,
IT APPEARS I'M MASSIVELY WRONG.
IT DOESN'T HAPPEN OFTEN.
THIS IS
ALMOST AS WRONG AS I WAS ABOUT ANTHONY WEINER.
YOU MIGHT WANT TO SCREEN GRAB THAT -- NOT THE ANTHONY WEINER
PART --
MY THESIS WAS YOU DON'T PUT REX TILLERSON AS SECRETARY OF
STATE UNLESS THE ENTIRE POINT WAS TO MAKE SURE THAT -- AND YOU
HAVE RUSSIA HELPING YOU IN THE ELECTIONS, THE DEAL SEEMS
OBVIOUS.
WHAT DO THEY CARE MOST ABOUT?
SANCTIONS, THE OIL DEAL,
THIS PARTICULAR DEAL WITH EXXON IS A $500 BILLION INVESTMENT,
AND POTENTIALLY TRILLIONS IN REVENUE.
I CONCLUDED THAT IF HE
HAD ANY DEAL WITH THE RUSSIANS, AND I THOUGHT HE PROBABLY DID,
IT WAS ABOUT THIS.
NOW, TREASURY IS SAYING THEY WON'T LIFT THE
SANCTIONS.
THEN IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT I'M WRONG.
IT'S
NOT OVER, AND THIS MIGHT BE, HEY, LET'S LET IT COOL DOWN AND
DO IT LATER, BUT EXXON HAS A CONTRACT THAT RUNS OUT AT THE
END OF THE YEAR.
SO IF THEY WILL DO IT, THEY HAVE TO DO IT BY THE
END OF THE YEAR.
SO UNTIL THIS GETS REVERSED, FOR THE MOMENT
BEING I APPEAR TO BE TOTALLY WRONG.
EARLY ON THEY SAID TREASURY ANNOUNCED THEY WERE NOT LIFTING
THE SANCTIONS, THAT'S NOT WHAT THIS IS, IT'S THAT THEY WON'T
GRANT A WAIVER TO ANY U.S. COMPANIES.
THAT'S GREAT, THEY
COULD JUST HAVE LET EXXON DO IT, THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN HORRIBLE,
BUT WHAT RUSSIA TRULY WANTS IS NOT A WAIVER FOR EXXON, WHAT
THEY WANT IS TO GET RID OF THE SANCTIONS, ALL THE SANCTIONS.
AND SIMPLY GIVING A WAIVER TO EXXON, THEY COULD HAVE TRIED TO,
BUT THAT WOULD PERHAPS DRAW A LITTLE TOO MUCH ATTENTION.
IF
INSTEAD YOU SIMPLY GET TO A POINT WHERE AS PART OF SOME
LARGER DEAL WITH RUSSIA, PERHAPS HAVING TO DO WITH SYRIA, YOU GET
RID OF ALL THE SANCTIONS, THEN EXXON WASN'T GIVEN ANY SPECIAL
TREATMENT, IT WAS JUST A CONSEQUENCE OF GETTING RID OF
THE SANCTIONS.
THAT IS THE HUGE PAYDAY.
THEY COULD HAVE TAKEN
THE EASY ROUTE, BUT THIS IS THE LONG GAME.
THAT WAS IMPORTANT, BUT ONE OF THE REASONS I WAS WRONG TOO
WAS THAT I THOUGHT THAT BY DEFERRING TO TREASURY -- ANY
DEPARTMENT CAN ISSUE THE WAIVER, BUT REX TILLERSON SAID FOR TWO
YEARS I'M NOT GOING TO GET INVOLVED IN ANY OF THESE THINGS
ONCE I TOOK THAT JOB, SURE, WE ALL BELIEVE THAT -- BUT THEN
WHEN HE GAVE IT TO MNUCHIN IN THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT,
THAT WAS HIS OUT, THE LOOPHOLE.
THEN THEY DIDN'T DO IT.
BUT MAYBE BECAUSE OF WHAT YOU SAID, JOHN, IT'S NOT THIS
BLACK-AND-WHITE.
BUT TO THEIR CREDIT, WE ARE PLAYING THIS OUT, THIS IS A PLAN
TILLERSON DRAFTED AT EXXON, IT WOULD HAVE GONE AGAINST THE
EXISTING SANCTIONS -- THE TANGLED WEB OF PLAYERS INVOLVED
IN THIS, THE OUTRAGE WOULD HAVE BEEN ENORMOUS.
NO ONE IN THEIR
RIGHT MIND WOULD HAVE TRIED TO PUSH THIS THROUGH RIGHT NOW.
IF WE ASSUME OUTRAGE MATTERS ANYMORE.
PEOPLE ARE OUTRAGED, I
WON'T DO IT -- I DON'T SEE THAT ANYMORE.
TWO POINTS OF CONTEXT, PEOPLE WHO WERE OUTRAGED MIGHT HAVE
BEEN REPUBLICANS, THEY DON'T CARE ABOUT DEMOCRATS OR
LIBERALS, BUT JOHN MCCAIN TWEETED ON WHETHER THEY SHOULD
GET THIS WAIVER, QUOTE, ARE YOU CRAZY?
AND RUBIO AND OTHER
LEADING REPUBLICANS WERE AGAINST IT.
THEY ALL VOTED FOR
TILLERSON, BUT NOW SAYING DON'T GIVE EXXON THE WAIVER.
AND WE
DON'T CARE IF EXXON MAKES TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS, THE POINT
IS THAT THE RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS AND PUTIN WOULD HAVE MADE
TRILLIONS, THAT'S WHY THEY WOULD BE INCENTIVIZED TO HELP TRUMP
WHEN, AND WHY IT'S RELEVANT JUST AS A COUNTRY.
I DON'T WANT THAT OIL TAKEN OUT OF THE GROUND ANYWAY, THAT'S
A RIDICULOUS AMOUNT OF OIL THAT DOESN'T NEED TO BE BURNED.
AND FINALLY, DO I REALLY BELIEVE I'M WRONG?
OF COURSE
NOT.
I DO BELIEVE THEY WILL LIFT THE SANCTIONS AT SOME POINT, IN
THE NICK OF TIME FOR EXXON MOBIL AND ROSNEFT TO MAKE THAT DEAL.
BUT I'M TELLING YOU RIGHT NOW THEY DIDN'T LIFT IT, AND THE
FACTS IN FRONT OF US ARE THAT RIGHT NOW THEY DIDN'T GIVE EXXON
THAT WAIVER.
IF IT CONTINUES AND THEY DON'T LIFT THE SANCTIONS I
WILL COME OUT AND SAY YES, THAT WAS NOT THE DEAL.
I JUST WANT TO GO ON THE RECORD AND SAY I WAS WRONG, IT'S
ROSNEFT.
I
WAS GOING TO SAY, THE FIRST TIME YOU PRONOUNCED IT, IT WAS GREAT.
YOU THINK TRUMP IS THE ONLY ONE WITH A RUSSIAN DEAL?