Why on earth is the accession of two relatively sparsely populated countries like Sweden and
Finland so important to NATO? Why do we say that this is a huge blow to Russia's
interests? Why did Moscow want to avoid this scenario at all costs for years?
Well, we are going to take a look at that right now.
T3 (THE FINAL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE) Look at what a 2016 report by the
Estonia-based International Center for Defense and Security said.
C2 (Without [Sweden and Finland] in NATO, the Alliance lacks strategic and operational
depth in the region, as well as sufficient capacity to exercise greater control over
sea and air space in the Baltic Sea. If Russia were to succeed in forcing
Stockholm and Helsinki to stay out of a Baltic conflict, NATO's response options would become
even more limited. Closing NATO's Baltic Gap, International Centre for Defence and Security.)
But why is it so important for Sweden and Finland to join NATO? Well,
you can see the answer clearly on this map: Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the
United States conducted a variety of war games to look for strategic weaknesses on NATO's borders.
These games showed that the Swedish island of Gotland would play a key role in the hypothetical
case of having to defend the Baltic republics. If Russia were to cut off the Suwalki
corridor [Editor: Marcar en el mapa] and seize Gotland in order to deploy air defense systems
there, as you can see on the map, the Baltic republics would be practically trapped. It
would be very difficult to come to their aid. And it would not even be necessary to go that
far. With Russia preventing NATO from using that island, a hybrid attack against the Baltics,
even with unidentified troops as already happened in Crimea, could be a nightmare
for the Atlantic forces. This is, or rather was, one of Russia's great long-term trump cards.
And that is not all. The integration of Finland and, above all, Sweden into NATO also wipes out
most of Kaliningrad's strategic value. Now NATO could very easily cut off communications
between this territory and the rest of Russia. Let's just say that the Russian Baltic fleet
deployed here ceases to be able to move freely. And not only that. In such a conflict scenario,
Russia would not even be able to deliver supplies to this enclave.
And, take note, because this reinforces the idea that many analysts have that sooner or
later Kaliningrad will end up beyond Russia’s borders. Something we will
tell you about very soon on Patreon. As a matter of fact, the same is true
for the flow of goods in and out of the global market. Russia relies heavily on trade across
the Baltic to supply and sell its products to the rest of the world. Now those communications
will be subject to NATO's approval. And that's not all either. The Russian
air force's ability to reach positions in the rest of Europe will also be severely limited.
In other words, while for decades the Baltic Sea was a body of water controlled by Russia
that gave its navy and its air force access to the very heart of Europe, this is no longer
the case. The integration of Finland and Sweden into NATO has nipped that possibility in the bud.
In fact, NATO, Finland and Estonia have already announced ambitious plans to have
the capacity to close the Gulf of Finland if necessary ((Editor: Destacar en el mapa)).
Also, in 2022, Russia announced plans to rebuild its maritime power in the
area. Now those plans are dead in the water. C3 ("With the entry of Sweden and Finland into
NATO, the Baltic Sea will be surrounded by NATO member states. The goal of establishing Russian
maritime power, proclaimed again in 2022 with the publication of the new Russian naval doctrine,
would now be unfeasible in this strategically important region." – The German Institute for
International and Security Affairs (SWP)) And if, with all this, Russia's Baltic Fleet
is practically history, the future integration of Ukraine into NATO would make the same happen with
the Black Sea Fleet, but that is another matter. Sticking with the subject of Sweden, although
this country has a relatively small army, it brings to the alliance an important military
industry. And keep in mind that Swedish factories produce not only small weapons, but advanced
systems such as combat aircraft, missiles, tanks, submarines, warships and air defense platforms.
C4 ("We believe that we will contribute to the defense of the Allies. We don't have
an Armed Forces as numerous as Finland, but we have the most advanced technologies and
very powerful Defense companies" – Teppo Tauriainen, Swedish Ambassador to Spain)
In other words, Sweden's accession to NATO is without exaggeration one of the
biggest leaps in terms of security for the whole of Europe in recent decades.
Putin's special military operation saw Russia go from sharing just 841 km or 522 miles of
borders with NATO in 2021 to more than 2,100 km or 1,305 miles after Finland's entry. Now
the integration of Sweden will mean that it will also lose all its influence in the Baltic Sea. The
disaster in strategic terms is colossal. But now it's your turn: How do you think
Russia will respond to Sweden's NATO membership? Do you think the next step
should be to separate Kaliningrad from the rest of Russia? Leave us your impressions
in the comments and let's open a debate. And now if you found this video interesting,
don't forget to like it and subscribe to VisualPolitik if you haven't already done so.
Once again thank you very much for being there, All the best and see you next time.