The war in Ukraine has cast light on one of the least known countries in Europe: Moldova.
Lying next to Ukraine,
it too emerged as an independent state with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But, in many ways, it's an accidental country.
Once part of Romania, there have long been calls for the two countries to unite again.
But could this ever really happen?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security and statehood.
We tend to think of countries as nation states.
A homeland for a particular people.
Of course, the reality is rather different.
Remarkably few countries are in fact ethnically homogeneous.
But there are also a small group of countries where a more complex situation emerge.
One group becomes divided and two states effectively emerge for a single nation.
These 'kin states', as they're usually known, will often have a fascinating relationship.
While they may learn to live side by side as separate independent and sovereign countries,
and may eventually develop distinct national identities, the possibility of some form of
union often remains a national aspiration - if not officially, then at least in wider society.
One of the most interesting examples in modern international relations
is the case of Romania and Moldova.
Romania and Moldova lie in southeast Europe.
At 240,000 square kilometres, or a little over 90,000 square miles,
Romania is the 81st largest of the 193 members of the United Nations.
Meanwhile, lying on its eastern border is Moldova.
At 34,000 square kilometres, or 13,000 square miles,
it's a mere seventh the size of Romania and is the 135th largest of the UN members.
In terms of population, Romania has around 19.3 million inhabitants.
By way of contrast Moldova's population currently stands at just 2.6 million.
The two countries have a long and fascinating history.
While many will point to their Roman origins,
our story really begins with the medieval principalities of Wallachia and Moldavia.
Having become Ottoman vassal states by the middle of the 16th century,
in 1812, and against the backdrop of Ottoman decline,
the eastern part of Moldavia - an area known as Bessarabia - was ceded to Imperial Russia.
In 1859, Wallachia and what remained of Moldavia merged;
eventually becoming the Kingdom of Romania, in 1881.
However, Bessarabia remained beyond its control
until, and against the backdrop of the Russian Revolution, Bessarabia declared independence.
Seizing its chance to reclaim its lands, Romania and Bessarabia were reunited.
However, it would prove to be a short and unhappy union.
Bessarabia was all but ignored by Romania, which was far more interested in its other newly gained
territories to the west; not least of all Transylvania, which it gained from Hungary.
More to the point, its annexation was never accepted by the Soviet Union.
In June 1940, following the start of the Second World War, Moscow retook the region,
creating the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic - one of the 15 top-level republics of the USSR.
Although Romania fell to communism after the Second World War,
eventually becoming the Socialist Republic of Romania, and became a Soviet satellite state,
Moscow ensured that the two territories remained apart.
Fearing pan-Romanian sentiment, Soviet authorities actively promoted a separate Moldovan identity.
As well as emphasising the difference between the languages, and reintroducing the Cyrillic script,
Russian and Ukrainian settlers were also brought in to alter the republic's demographic mix.
As a result, even today Ukrainians and Russians represent around seven
and four percent of the Moldovan population respectively.
However, the situation changed with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
On 25 December 1991, the republic of Moldova became an independent state.
At first, there was a real sense that the two countries may now pursue unification.
But any talk of unification seemed short-lived.
Within a few years, divisions opened up in Moldova between those advocating union - even on a gradual
basis - and those who supported continued existence of a separate Moldovan state;
albeit with stronger or weaker relations with neighbouring Romania.
In the end, they would go down very different paths.
Along with other central and eastern European countries,
Romania set its sights on the west; joining NATO in 2004 and the European Union in 2007.
In contrast, Moldova, unable to entirely break free of its Soviet past,
would face years of political instability - continually teetering between governments that
favoured closer relations with the European Union and those that wanted stronger ties to Moscow.
So, where does all this leave the prospects for unification today?
Seen from Moldova's perspective, it seems unlikely.
While there's evidence that support for unification has in fact grown in recent years,
polling suggests that only 40 to 45 percent really want it.
This seems to be driven by a range of factors.
First, while Romania and Moldova share close ties,
a distinct Moldovan identity has nevertheless emerged.
But perhaps more importantly there's also a sense that Moldova,
with its small size and population, would inevitably be a minor player in the united
Romania - a view undoubtedly shaped by the historical experience of the previous union.
Despite its problems, Moldova today is an independent state.
Of course, there's the argument that unification may bring about economic benefits.
But few believe that this would be a panacea.
Romania, while wealthier than Moldova, is hardly rich.
With a per capita GDP running at around a third that of the EU average,
it wouldn't be able to inject vast sums of money into reunification.
Again, any economic benefits hardly seem worth the price of lost independence.
Moreover, at a personal level, many Moldovans see little direct benefit from unification.
They already get the best advantage any union could possibly offer:
Romanian, and by extension EU, citizenship.
It's believed that around a quarter of the Moldovan population has
Romanian nationality - including the country's pro-European president,
Maia Sandu - and many Moldovans already live and work in the European Union.
But balanced against this, at least for now, is the security dimension.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns that Moldova may be Moscow's next target.
But rather than focus on unification with Romania,
the first signs are that this is instead driving the process of EU integration.
Along with Ukraine and Georgia, it's worth noting
that Moldova has now formally submitted its application for European Union membership.
However, and interestingly, NATO membership still seems firmly off the agenda.
Indeed, neutrality is currently enshrined in the Moldovan constitution.
But what about Romania? Does it want unification?
Although there's certainly a body of opinion in favour of unification,
it's not as popular as many might think.
While some polls have shown support as high as 40 to 45 percent, many observers
believe that it's significantly lower than this; perhaps in the region of just 15 to 20 percent.
From Romania's perspective, the issue is mainly focused on practical problems.
For a start, there's an economic dimension.
Unification would be extremely expensive.
It would cost a fortune to integrate Moldova - money Romania can hardly afford as it is.
But there are also other strong considerations.
Moldova remains politically divided, with a large body of support for Russia.
Tied to this, there are fears about the implications of admitting
what could be up to a quarter of a million ethnic Russians.
Many Romanians worry about the possible effects of importing
these fractures into their country - especially under current circumstances.
Of course, one option would be to unite within
a federal system - thus allowing Moldova to run its own affairs.
But while this would fulfil the aspirational wish for unification, it would offer
few tangible benefits while simultaneously maintaining all of the disadvantages.
Romania would have to pay the price for unification,
but would have little control over what goes on in Moldova.
But aside from the attitudes in both countries,
there are also broader political questions that need to be addressed.
The first is the European Union.
It's unclear how Romania's EU partners would respond to any attempt to unify the two countries.
Of course, there's the precedent of German unification in the early 1990s.
But the two cases are very different;
not least of all because Germany was wealthy enough to fund the process.
Moreover, the idea of german unification was
always understood and accepted, even if long viewed as unrealistic.
On top of this, there could be significant legal issues.
It's unclear how a unification process like this could be managed as it would
seemingly bypass the usual long accession process - a process that's deliberately
designed to ensure that a new entrant can meet the demands of EU membership.
At the very least, it would require a complex arrangement to ensure that
Moldova's membership by unification didn't create problems for the EU.
Last, but by no means least, there's the issue of Transnistria.
This is a frozen conflict centred on a thin slice of territory that was tacked onto the Moldavian
Soviet Socialist Republic by the Soviet Union, but which unilaterally declared independence in 1991.
Made up of around half a million inhabitants, a third of which are Russian,
it's still supported by Moscow and propped up by around 1500 Russian troops.
This also raises very real questions about whether the EU or NATO would be willing to
import a new territorial issue - especially one with such a direct Russian dimension.
I won't go into more detail on Transnistria here, but I hope to cover it in a future video.
While there's certainly a body of opinion in both Moldova and Romania that supports unification,
on balance it seems hard to see it happening.
For Moldovans it would mean giving up their political independence
for very little if any obvious gain.
And while many Romanians might still speak about unification,
it's certainly not a high priority - especially given the economic and political costs of unity.
Ultimately, while unification may be a national aim,
it's perhaps better thought of as a goal never to be reached.
But that's not to say they won't be united in another way.
Against the backdrop of Russia's war in Ukraine, and with a new impetus for European integration,
Moldova may now decide to commit to a European pathway.
While it's unlikely to be a fast process,
and the question of Transnistria will continue to loom large, there is every
possibility that we may well one day see Romania and Moldova united within the European Union.
I hope you found that interesting. If so, here are some more videos that you might find useful.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.