in December of 2007 a u.s. senator named
Barack Obama was running for president
it didn't look like he would beat the
well-known frontrunner Hillary Clinton
she was nearly 20 points ahead of him in
the national polls but then one month
later a huge huge victory Obama won the
Iowa caucus the Iowa caucus is like an
election but instead of voting in a
voting booth you stand with other people
to be counted it's weird but it's also
the very first contest in America's
presidential primary process to
determine the two major parties nominees
and if you win it it's a big deal
[Applause]
literally overnight Obama shot up in the
polls winning Iowa turned him from a
longshot candidate to a real possibility
for the last 50 years Iowa has been a
hugely influential part of the
presidential primary system but in 2020
well epic failure meltdown of the vote
reporting system first a bunch of
technical mishaps delayed the caucus
results then when the results came out
no one was actually sure if they were
correct and it started to raise
questions about whether the Iowa caucus
deserves to be so important the way
America's political parties choose their
presidential nominees starting in Iowa
and then with 63 other elections on 21
separate days was kind of set up quickly
and without any real thought behind the
order so why do we choose presidents
this way and is there a better way to do
it to understand how we do things now
you have to go back about 50 years as
recently as the 60s only a few states
even held primaries most states didn't
and party leaders would just pick the
presidential nominee at the convention
voters were much more divorced from the
process than they are today this is Lee
she's been covering the 2020 primaries
for Vox at that time the people in
charge or effectively picking the people
that would stay in charge which mostly
worked fine until 1968
in the few primaries that year Young
Democrats voted in big numbers for
candidates who were against the Vietnam
War but at the convention the party
delegates instead chose the pro-war vice
president who wasn't even on the ballot
in the few states that actually held
primaries it did not go over well there
was huge pushback to that the protests
were incredibly effective and actually
ended up in the changes that we see now
what changed was the Democratic Party
decided to let voters pick the nominee
with elections in each state Republicans
soon followed suit today the delegates
from each state still officially vote on
the nominee at the convention but they
have to vote according to how the
candidates did in their state primaries
to win the nomination a candidate needs
a majority of all delegates and big
states with big populations like Florida
have lots of delegates for the taking
small states like Iowa have just a few
but even though it's not a delegate
powerhouse in the sequential primary
system Iowa has a crucial job as do
other small states that vote early in
the process let's look at the 2016
Republican primary as an example when
the Iowa caucus kicked things off there
were 12 serious candidates on the ballot
after Iowa 3 immediately dropped out and
after the New Hampshire primary a week
later three more dropped out this is
what those early states are there to do
the early states end up winnowing the
field to a slate of what people might
consider frontrunners they help
candidates generate hype press coverage
additional donations in other words
instead of the rest of the country
having to choose between 12 candidates
early states help the party narrow down
its options to just a few viable
candidates for the rest of the primaries
that also gives voters in these early
states a lot of power a voter in the
earliest state has five times the
influence on deciding the nominee as a
voter just a few weeks later but here's
the problem with that so there was no
real rationale in the way that these
early states were initially determined
Iowa goes first because in 1972
the first election after the changes
Iowa said they needed a long time to
compile their results so they had to
hold their caucus early and as its held
onto that first spot
Iowa's gotten more and more important
and New Hampshire is the first
traditional primary because they have a
law saying that they have to be first
yep that's it and the questions around
whether these states should go first or
not new
the main problem that people bring up
over and over again is that both states
are super white when you look at the
actual numeric breakdown both are about
90% white so neither of these states is
very representative of either the US or
the party itself and that's become a
huge concern that's partly why in 2008
the parties move to more diverse states
Nevada and South Carolina to also be
early in the calendar then there's Super
Tuesday which started in the 80s when
southern states decided to have their
primaries at the same time to try to
have a bit more influence over the year
Super Tuesday has gotten more and more
super in 2020 one-third of all delegates
will be awarded on this one day in other
words Super Tuesday has been looking
more and more like a national primary so
why not just have a national primary and
have everyone vote on the same day the
answer has to do with who would probably
win if there was a national primary
today whoever has the most money as well
as the most name recognition would
probably do the best because they're
able to reach people and they already
have an established backing in place
think about that in terms of the 2020
primary if everyone voted on one day and
money and name recognition mattered the
most this is who would probably come out
on top remember that poll from December
2007 if everyone voted at once Obama
would have lost which brings us back to
Iowa and New Hampshire
I wanna Iowa because I spent 87 days go
on every small town fair and fish-fry
both Iowa New Hampshire they're very
accessible so you can drive around you
can hold events you can go to the fair
and meet with voters and also their
media markets are much cheaper than
other larger states like California both
of those factors
make it easier for a candidate who maybe
isn't that well-known to also make the
same type of impression of somebody else
who might be you know wealthier and more
well resourced so the sequential system
helps a narrow the field and starting in
a small state can help underdog
candidates emerge but should that state
the Iowa
why start in Iowa well that's the
conversation that will absolutely happen
after this election cycle there have
been a bunch of different options
floated wine is to change the state that
goes first
so which states should go first the
website 538 tried to figure this out by
looking at the racial ethnic and
educational breakdown of every state to
find which one was the most
representative of the Democratic Party
as a whole number one was Illinois Iowa
was 42nd another option is to actually
just move it so that ten states go in
February that kind of dilutes the
influence of Iowa New Hampshire a little
bit and then another possibility is the
idea of rotating they talk more about
rotating regions that would dominate the
primary one year in a different region
that would dominate the primary a
different year the way America nominates
its presidential candidates isn't set in
stone the political parties can and have
changed the process over the years but
it's been a while
maybe it's time
[Music]
you