The notion that Ukraine should serve as a neutral buffer between the East and West as what Finland
did during the Cold War has become a debatable issue. This is believed to be adopting the concept
of “Finlandization” or “the Finnish model” and has been suggested by several European leaders,
including French President Emmanuel Macron, in order for Russian President Vladimir Putin to
end his invasion over Ukraine as well as a way to resolve the current crisis in Eastern Europe.
Finlandization refers to Finland’s neutrality policy toward NATO and the Warsaw Pact during
the Cold War. This happened mainly because after two Soviet invasions in 1939 and 1941,
the Finns had to accept increased Soviet dominance in their domestic politics
to retain their sovereignty, making Finland a neutral buffer state.
However, Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine and Finland’s long history of subjugation
has now sparked a rethinking among the Finns. For the first time,
roughly half of the Finnish population supports joining NATO. Finland’s government even released
a security-policy report on April 13 that lays the foundation for a NATO membership decision,
mentioning Russia’s threat. So, here is the question: if Finland renounces
its forced neutrality and joins NATO, would it secure a more prosperous future?
Hello everyone, welcome back to Military TV. Today, we’re trying to discuss about why Finland’s
future is with NATO. If you’re curious about this topic, don’t go anywhere and stay tuned.
Finland’s mass self-censorship toward the Soviet Union, official neutrality in Cold
War geopolitics, and submissiveness in allowing the Soviet Union to invade its society are all
the cost Finland must pay in preserving its independence. Therefore, since the Cold War,
Finland has claimed that staying out of NATO has best protected their national security and that
it avoided disrupting the military balance in the Baltic Sea region and provoking Russia. However,
after the Cold War ended, Finland began gradually shifting its orientation toward the US and Western
Europe, joining the European Union in 1995 and signing several cooperation agreements with NATO.
For instance, Finland participates in NATO military exercises and increasingly shares
insights with it. Finland also becomes part of the NATO Partnership for Peace program,
which promotes cooperation with non-member alliances, and, along with Ukraine, is one
of six Enhanced Opportunity Partners, which significantly contribute to NATO operations.
Finland today is a far cry from the Cold War downcast buffer state. Although the ghost of
Finlandization dwelled and Finns complied with the notion of keeping good relations with Russia
as the cornerstone of their foreign policy, Finland is now one of the few European countries
that authorizes conscription in attempt to field a strong military. The Finnish constitution
states that every citizen, particularly males at the age of eighteen to sixty,
is compelled to serve in military for national defense. Hence, Finland trains 21,000 troops
each year and maintains a large reserve force of 900,000. Moreover, Defense Force expenditure has
also increased since 2014, with some purchases of new aircraft indicating the close cooperation
between Finland National Defense Courses’ leaders in business, political, civic, and media.
On the other hand, Finland requires its pharmaceutical companies to stockpile three
to ten months’ worth of imported drug supplies. It also already stores six months’ worth of fuel
and grain as a preliminary measure to ensure it has enough resources to withstand an aggressor.
Overall, Finland has now begun taking steps to protect itself from Russian
hybrid threats such as border violations, influence campaigns, and cyber warfare.
Since its independence, Finland has spent 104 years tiptoeing around Russia, with whom
it shares a 1,300-kilometer border, making it the Europe’s second-largest shared border with Russia.
Also, Finland’s 280,000-strong military is still overshadowed by Russia defense. Thus,
Finland is fully aware of the costs of war against its giant neighbor,
as 25,000 and 75,000 casualties inflicted in the Winter War and the Continuation War,
respectively. For these reasons, the advancements made by Finland in terms of military and resources
have been a necessary precaution to help bolster its sovereignty and security.
This, furthermore, leads to the reason why Finland wants to join NATO.
The NATO membership offers some benefits, including military expertise,
support, and technology. More importantly, the alliance’s collective defense guarantee
provides deterrence value, which is mentioned in Article V of the NATO charter, stating that
“an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all members.” This means NATO protects its members’
internal and external peace by deterring conflict. This deterrence factor, therefore,
is what makes Ukraine, a non-NATO member, be at the center of Europe's only large-scale conflict
after World War II. It is also the reason why the Cold War never ended up getting “hot.”
Ultimately, the Finnish people and their elected representatives could make an application for NATO
membership although it takes a unanimous vote from NATO’s 30 participating countries for Finland to
be officially accepted as a member. Looking at Finland’s long-standing partnership with NATO
and its recent efforts to meet with several NATO countries, however, the chance is quite promising.
Besides that, Finland is one of the world’s most developed nations with stable democracies
and highly trusted political institutions. This resonates with the criteria for aspirant
nations to be a NATO’s member, which include a functioning democracy based on a market economy,
fair treatment of minority populations, a commitment to peaceful conflict resolution,
and a willingness and ability to contribute to military forces to NATO operations.
Hence, Finland’s strong democratic system would take it to the fast track for membership.
So, if Finland joins NATO, what it would bring for NATO?
Well, having Finland in the alliance, on the other hand, would undoubtedly make NATO easier to
stabilize the security of the Baltic Sea region. It also contributes to the defense of NATO members
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are often viewed as potential targets for Russian aggression
due to large ethnic Russian minorities, and Vladimir Putin has used protecting them as
a pretext for intervening Ukraine. In addition, with equipment is already compatible with that
of the alliance, Finland is expected to adjoin NATO’s sophisticated, well-equipped militaries.
This would lengthen NATO’s border with Russia, which currently accounts for only 6% of Russia’s
land perimeter, and allow the alliance to improve its surveillance of the country’s western flank.
However, given that Finland joins NATO, it would bring significant experience defending against
and preparing for Russian aggression, as well as a highly regarded peacekeeping reputation.
Eventually, those who against Finland’s NATO membership must take into account that the
country’s decision will be based on the Finns’ belief that joining NATO will be the best way to
protect their sovereignty. As a result, Finland would no longer requires Cold War realpolitik
to maintain its place in the world. Finlandization is now supposed to be served as a benchmark
for how far the country has progressed rather than a token for geopolitical hostage-taking.
So, that’s all for today. If you find this video is interesting, don’t forget to hit
like and subscribe buttons. Or if you have any suggestion about another interesting topic,
please let us know in the comment below. Thanks for watching and see you next time.