Is this one of the world’s most dangerous millennials?
Muhammad bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia...
...better known as MBS
To some he’s a revolutionary...
...who has transformed life in Saudi Arabia, especially for women
To others he's a butcher who fuelled a bloody war in Yemen...
..and, the CIA believes, approved an operation to kill or capture...
...a Washington Post journalist who was cut up with a bone saw
Now, thanks to the global energy crisis, the crown prince looks stronger than ever...
...and world leaders are queuing up to get their hands on his oil
I think the kingdom is in a uniquely powerful position...
...with what is happening in Ukraine
So what will he do next?
MBS is a very dangerous man...
...who is becoming more dangerous because of the power he’s accumulating
After hours in Saudi Arabia
Men and women mixing freely...
...and a female DJ on the decks
The Economist’s Nicolas Pelham was filming the scene
I think I had to do a double-take
It was really quite an astonishing sight
Just a few years ago, all this would have been illegal
Public entertainment was banned and unmarried men and women...
...were not allowed to socialise
Saudi Arabia, for all the time that I’ve known it until about the last five or six years...
...has been a society where public space was ruled by religious police
What I found so hard to grapple with was just how normal it all felt
I don’t understand how you can live with one set of values...
...and then supplant them with another, as if nothing had really happened
In the past, Saudi Arabia was governed according to a strict interpretation of Islam
Clerics controlled everything from social life to the role of women
The kingdom really was ruled through a joint venture...
...if you want, between the royal family and the hardline religious establishment
And it was an ultra-conservative establishment...
...you know, controlled education, controlled the public narrative
That was, until the rise of Muhammad bin Salman
The young crown prince stripped the clerics of their power
...increased women’s rights, including giving them the right to drive...
...and all in a radically short period of time
If you look at it in a historical context...
...of what societies had to go through to neuter their conservative...
...right-wing religious class...
...that usually only happened with civil wars
This has all happened without a single cleric being...
...you know, killed or no violence on the streets
And I think that is virtually miraculous, really
So who is the man behind these changes?
MBS is a millennial who enjoys flaunting his wealth
He splashed out over £200m on a French chateau
The Economist was given a rare chance to sit down with him in 2016...
...and found a prince ready for power
There wasn’t a single question that he shied away from
His responses were imaginative and detailed, and he was forthcoming
And I think what came across perhaps most stridently was a sense of conviction
He really believed in his ability to change the kingdom
Despite his confidence, few could have predicted MBS’s rise
In Saudi Arabia’s ruling dynasty, the House of Saud, power usually passes sideways...
...from brother to brother
MBS’s father, Salman, had several older brothers ahead of him in line for succession
But when two died he was able to take the throne
...opening up the way for MBS to succeed him...
although he still had several older half-brothers ahead of him in line for the throne
It wasn't clear that the line of succession was going to pass...
...from one generation to the next
And if you were going to move to the next generation...
...there were many princes who were far better known
Muhammad bin Salman was an unknown quantity
But his father, Salman, had a soft spot for him
So when he became king in 2015...
...he increased MBS’s portfolio
These are just some of the titles he was given
Then in 2017, according to insider reports...
...MBS forced his cousin to step aside as crown prince
There seemed to have been something of a standoff
Muhammad bin Nayef and his guards were disarmed
Muhammad bin Nayef was told that your time is up
The Council of Allegiance has decided that you're no longer the crown prince...
...and I'm going to fill your shoes
After this, MBS wasted no time in cementing his power
It’s a shake-up sending shockwaves across the kingdom and the world
Saudi Arabia detaining top officials in a sweeping corruption probe
He invited the wealthiest men in the kingdom...
...along with the world's business elite
...to a conference on the future of the Saudi economy
A self-styled "Davos in the Desert"
A short time later, he used the opportunity to hold many of them in a luxury hotel
He rounded up the leading princes and the richest businessmen, interrogated them...
...got them to reveal their banking details
Thereafter, it was very clear that the real only ruler in the kingdom...
...was now Muhammad bin Salman
Since then, his aggression and repressive behaviour have escalated
He has consolidated power around his own court
Human-rights groups estimate thousands have been detained
And in March this year alone, 81 were executed
The government has maintained an extremely tight control of society
And I think that is a price the kingdom has had to pay for social peace...
...as it transitions through this wrenching process
Some are much more sceptical
Khalid Aljabri says he knows first-hand how brutal the regime can be
When all you have is a hammer, everything becomes, or everybody becomes a nail
That’s exactly what MBS is doing
And his list of victims will keep expanding inside and outside Saudi Arabia...
...unless somebody decides to put a check on him
Khalid lives in America, but his roots are in Saudi Arabia
I come from a big family in terms of Western standards
I’m the eldest, six boys and two girls, including Omar and Sarah
They were funny, smart, very very ambitious
In 2017, Omar and Sarah were banned from leaving the kingdom
Three years later, they were seized by the authorities
There were 20 unmarked civilian cars that showed up, with 50 officers in plain clothes...
...that went into the house and basically took Omar and Sarah
Khalid’s father was an advisor to the former crown prince Muhammad bin Nayef
Khalid thinks his siblings’s travel ban has been used by MBS...
to try to pressure his dad to return to the kingdom
...and he has seen messages from MBS to his father, which, he believes, support this
What’s so unique about our case is Muhammad bin Salman can’t deflect responsibility on...
...rogue agents or that he doesn’t know about it
It’s a complicated story
Khalid’s dad is also accused of stealing billions of dollars from the Saudi government...
...which he denies
Meanwhile, Khalid worries about his own security
I think, like my father, I made peace with the fact...
...that one day I will probably be harmed
And who can blame him?
MBS has famously been linked to the murder of outspoken...
...former royal-court insider and journalist...
Jamal Khashoggi...
...who was dismembered with a bone saw in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul
Nicolas knew him personally
We were due to meet actually in Istanbul the weekend that he disappeared
I think Muhammad bin Salman, he wanted to send a message that this is...
...what happens when you question my authority
MBS has said he takes responsibility for the murder, but denies ordering it
For a time, it looked like the killing could jeopardise...
...the kingdom’s relationship with one of its closest allies, America
We are going to, in fact, make them pay the price...
...and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are
Saudi Arabia has long been a strategic ally in the Middle East
Successive presidents have happily sold arms to Saudi leaders
We really have a great friendship, a great relationship
...crown prince thank you very much, thank you for being here
It's also home to the world’s largest accessible oil reserves
And thanks to the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine...
...President Biden’s threats now look empty
The message from Ukraine has been that...
...the global economy still depends on oil from the Gulf
It was also significant that it wasn’t just Biden who came to Saudi Arabia
It was also the most powerful leaders in the Arab world
It’s almost as if Muhammad bin Salman was sending the message...
...I am your address in the Middle East...
...if you want to have a relationship with the Middle East...
...if you want to keep Russia and China away from dominating the region, deal with me
So where might change come from?
Let’s start in the kingdom itself
There may be little overt opposition...
...but some, including religious hardliners, are unhappy with his reforms
Muhammad bin Salman really is ruling by fear
I saw it on my recent visits more than I’ve ever seen it before
It does beg the question, as it has for other totalitarian leaders in the Middle East...
...how long can you continue to rule by fear and by force?
And at what point could there be a breaking point?
Another weak point is the economy
Since taking power, he has dedicated himself to diversifying the kingdom away from oil...
...with everything from tourism to flashy eco-cities...
...like Neom
But despite the glossy PR promises of new cities in the sand...
...unemployment is still in double figures...
...while many of the oil-related subsidies Saudis have traditionally enjoyed are gone
He hasn’t really had much success in diversifying revenues
The kingdom is still heavily dependent on oil and looks as if it will be...
...for the foreseeable future
So, what does that mean if he can’t deliver?
And if you see a rise in economic frustration, there’s a huge question mark...
...as to whether that could also translate into political frustration
So what about threats beyond the kingdom?
The most immediate is right on his doorstep...
...in Yemen
As defence minister back in 2015...
...one of the first things MBS did was intervene in a bloody war...
...to crush Houthi rebels who were being supported by the kingdom’s arch-rival, Iran
But seven years on, the Houthis have forced the better-armed Saudis...
...into a ceasefire...
...which still leaves the kingdom looking exposed
Well, the kingdom is very vulnerable
Houthis have been succeeding in getting through, although Saudi air defence...
...have improved their game considerably over the past couple of years
But still, the kingdom is a very wide geographic space...
...and that makes it particularly vulnerable to drones...
...and other projectiles that come either from Iran or from Iran’s proxies
But perhaps the greatest threat to the crown prince might be MBS himself
He’s shown himself to be ego-driven, aggressive and impulsive
And perhaps it’s only so long before he makes a fatal misjudgment
Is it his own recklessness, is it his own brutality...
is it his own desire to be the only voice in the kingdom...
...that could ultimately prove his undoing?
For sound policy, you need to have people who can say "no"
And at the moment in Saudi Arabia, everyone is too scared to say anything but "yes"
We put the allegations in this film to the royal court in Saudi Arabia
It declined to comment.
But in response to a related piece about MBS in The Economist:
It denied all allegations against the Crown Prince...
...insisting
It continued...
My name is Nicolas Pelham, I’m the Middle East correspondent for The Economist...
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