- [Announcer] Israeli forces wrapping up ground operations
in the Gaza Strip.
- Prevent Israel war-- - Between Israel and Hamas
threatening to-- - Sending that aircraft
carrier into the wider region. (building exploding)
(electronic music)
- The war between Israel and Hamas is escalating
as Israeli troops begin their ground invasion
into the Gaza Strip.
- [Announcer] Urban combat as they advance towards the Gaza.
- But this war isn't just between these two sides.
It actually involves multiple countries and groups,
all with different interests and capabilities
and all with the power to influence this war.
In this video I wanna show you each of these groups.
I wanna show you who they are, what they want,
what their calculations are.
And to show you how this war
between Israel and Hamas is threatening to spread.
Spread to the rest of the region,
but also to the rest of the world.
- [Announcer] And U.S. officials are worried
that this could escalate beyond just a conflict
between the Israelis and the Palestinians
and could in fact become a regional war.
(men chanting)
- The Gaza Strip is one of two Palestinian territories.
It's home to over 2 million Palestinians
and it's different than the West Bank.
The West Bank is cut up and governed
by a mix of Israeli occupation
and a Palestinian national government.
Gaza, on the other hand, is governed by Hamas.
An Islamist organization with a militia wing
whose mission is to resist and oppose Israel
to fight against Israeli occupation of Palestinians
by whatever means necessary,
including terrorism and violence.
Hamas chose October 7th, 2023
to launch their most deadly attack.
Breaking down the border wall surrounding the Gaza Strip
and massacring civilians
in a ground and rocket assault on Israel.
This terrorist attack killed an estimated 1,400 Israelis
and Hamas ended up taking 229 hostages
back to the Gaza Strip.
- Hamas is expert at using tunnels and basements
to hide people, including hostages.
- It was a senseless slaughter of innocent lives
and it was the most deadly attack in Israel's history.
Immediately after the attack, Israel declares war on Hamas.
They call up a reservist force of 360,000 soldiers
and they immediately start bombing the Gaza Strip.
- [Announcer] Thousands of airstrikes
and Gaza is now cut off from electricity, water, and food.
- Their stated mission
is not just to strike back against Hamas,
but to end the group forever.
- [Announcer] Israel's furious strikes on Gaza
are laying waste to entire neighborhoods.
(people panicking)
(electronic music)
- Israel says that the north of the Gaza Strip
is now an evacuation zone that they're going to bomb.
And they tell the 1 million Palestinians living there
to leave, to evacuate towards the South.
(person speaking foreign language)
But Palestinians can't leave this area.
Their southern border is with Egypt
and Egypt has vowed that they will not let anyone in.
The Prime Minister made this point very clearly by saying
that Egypt is willing to sacrifice,
quote millions of lives
to avoid allowing Palestinians into Egypt.
So the airstrikes continue and Israel says
that they're preparing for a ground invasion
to send troops into the Gaza Strip,
to target Hamas fighters and leaders.
(ominous music)
This is when Israel's most important ally swoops in.
- [Announcer] Joe Biden, the U.S. president
has landed in Israel.
- President Joe Biden travels to Israel
and urges the Israeli Prime Minister
to not make the same mistake that the U.S. made after 9/11.
Sending in troops to wage a grueling and doomed war
against highly motivated fighters
and eventually ending up fighting in dense cities
where militants and civilians blend together.
(electronic music)
The U.S. learned
that no matter how powerful your military is,
this kind of warfare is brutal
and very difficult to achieve any kind of victory.
The U.S. is also worried that if Israel invades Gaza,
that it will trigger a broader conflict in the Middle East.
And this is where we need to zoom out
to get a bigger-picture look at the rest of this region.
(electronic music)
- [Announcer] War between Israel and Hamas
threatens to explode into the wider region.
- If we wanna understand the geopolitics of this region,
you have to look at Iran.
Iran is the country that wants to be the most powerful
and influential country in the Middle East.
This puts them in direct conflict with Israel,
a powerful country that is nuclear-armed
that is also a foothold for the United States
to project its power in the Middle East
in Iran's neighborhood.
(electronic music)
So there's this deep enmity between Iran and Israel
and by extension, the United States.
(electronic music)
Instead of attacking Israel directly,
which would be a catastrophe,
Iran opposes Israel by funding a network of anti-Israel
and anti-Jewish militia groups and governments
around the region.
Giving them money and weapons
as part of what they call the axis of resistance
against Israel and by extension, the United States.
One of these groups in the axis of resistance is Hamas.
Iran supports Hamas by giving them training, money,
and very importantly, weapons.
Like the thousands of rockets
that Hamas fired into Israel on October 7th
as a part of their attack.
This axis of resistance exists
to keep constant pressure on Israel,
to make Israel think twice about ever attacking Iran.
Iran needs Israel to think
that this network is a credible threat,
that they will act if Israel does something
that they don't like.
So as Israel bombards the Gaza Strip
killing all of these civilians,
Iran and their axis of resistance feels pressure to respond.
So you start to see all these small-scale attacks
all throughout the region
targeting Israeli and American targets.
- [Announcer] Increasing attacks by Iranian proxies
on U.S. forces stationed in the region.
- Most of this action breaks out
in Israel's northern border with Lebanon,
home to Iran's most powerful proxy group called Hezbollah.
A political and military organization
with tens of thousands of well-trained soldiers.
They're armed to the teeth and they're funded by Iran.
They have over 100,000 missiles of varying ranges
capable of hitting almost all of Israel.
Hezbollah is actually a much greater threat to Israel
than Hamas in Gaza.
And in the weeks following the attack,
Hezbollah shows that they're ready to fight
by shooting at Israeli military installations
along this border region,
Israel strikes back at Hezbollah in these border skirmishes,
threatening an escalation.
They drop bombs on two airports in Syria.
Airports where Iran sends weapons and supplies to Hezbollah.
It looks like an escalation,
especially as Israel moves
most of its soldiers up here, not to Gaza.
While tens of thousands of Israeli citizens are evacuated.
- Attacks by Hezbollah and Israel are continuing
with its fighters destroying an Israeli attack.
- [Johnny] The U.S. continues to urge Israel
not to invade Gaza,
fearing that a ground invasion
would cross Hezbollah's red line
and provoke them to invade from the north,
turning this into a two-front war.
Which could boil over into a three-front war
if Palestinians in the West Bank rise up
and start fighting with Israeli settlers
and soldiers who occupy the West Bank.
- [Announcer] The key to a spread of the conflict
lies on the Israel-Lebanon border.
If that becomes a second front,
the entire region will then feel the heat.
- One of the paradoxes of global conflict
is that even when all of the sides
don't actually want a full-scale war,
they have nothing to gain from it.
A full-scale war can break out anyway.
And in this case, what might not be obvious
is that Hezbollah and Iran
actually don't want a full-scale war with Israel,
which would bring a war to Lebanon,
a country that has been crumbling under economic turmoil
in recent years, for which some Lebanese blame Hezbollah.
A war would deepen this crisis
and deepen the resentment for Hezbollah
and threaten their ability to operate in Lebanon.
And yet, as Israeli jets continue to bombard the Gaza Strip,
Hezbollah and their Iranian sponsors have to show
that they are willing to act,
that they are a credible threat,
that they have red lines that are being crossed.
This is the deadly game of chicken
that escalates conflicts like this.
This is what turns them into a situation
that no one can control.
But another paradox of global conflict
is that some threats of force
can actually diffuse the tension,
can stabilize an escalating conflict.
At least that's the bet
that the United States made here.
- The Pentagon's deploying 300 more troops to the Mideast.
- [Johnny] While Israel was still debating
whether or not to send troops into Gaza,
the U.S. deploys two naval strike groups.
One off the coast of Israel
and the other off the coast of Iran.
These groups are made up of huge aircraft carriers
accompanied by supply and warships.
We're talking 15,000 sailors in total
standing watch as this conflict escalates.
The U.S. also readies its missile defense systems
and prepares soldiers for deployment.
It's a huge show of force,
and it's the U.S. trying to use its superior military power
to send a signal to Iran and its proxies
that they're there and they're watching
and that they will be dragged in to any escalating conflict.
- To any country, any organization,
anyone thinking of taking advantage of the situation,
I have one word, don't, don't.
- And then against the warning
of the United States, Israel sends troops into Gaza.
- [Announcer] Israeli troops and tanks
advanced further into Gaza engaged in urban combat.
- The ground invasion is more limited than expected,
but it's what the Israeli Prime Minister
is calling the second stage in their plan
to completely destroy Hamas and its leadership.
As Israeli troops flooded into Gaza, the big question was,
would Hezbollah act?
Would they invade from the north?
And surprisingly, they didn't.
And this shows us three things that weren't as clear before.
Number one, it shows that the price of a war
for Lebanon is huge and that Hezbollah
is taking that into account.
They stand accountable to the Lebanese people
and Lebanon does not want war.
It also shows us that Iran is hesitant
to use Hezbollah in this context.
Hezbollah is their most powerful card to play
in deterring Israel from ever attacking them.
And in using it to protect Palestinians,
they will weaken Hezbollah's role as a deterrent.
Or to say it bluntly,
what this shows us is Iran cares much more
about its own security than it does
about the plight of the Palestinians.
(electronic music)
But the third thing that this shows
is that Hezbollah believes
that Israel will not be successful in their mission
to eradicate Hamas.
According to a Lebanese diplomat
who talked to the New York Times,
Hezbollah has been quote quietly telling its partners
that it believes that Hamas is in a good position
and does not yet need Hezbollah's help.
And indeed, Hamas itself has come out and said
that they're ready,
that they've been preparing for a ground invasion
because they have an advantage.
Inevitably, this ground invasion
will mean luring Israeli soldiers
into a labyrinth of densely populated cities
where fighters can easily hide and blend in with civilians.
Not to mention Hamas' huge network of hundreds of kilometers
of underground tunnels where they can hide, store supplies,
and store their hostages.
- [Announcer] The tunnels also have a psychological use,
an unseen, unpredictable angle designed to keep enemies
wondering when and where they'll be ambushed.
- [Announcer] For any Israeli ground offensive,
this may prove the biggest challenge.
- It's a truly excruciating kind of warfare
in every conceivable sense.
- This is a quickly changing situation
and I don't know what the conflict looks like
when you are watching this,
but right now the bombardment of Gaza continues.
The death toll of Palestinians is skyrocketing.
The people are running out of food and water
and medical supplies.
The UN is condemning Israel's response saying
that there's no justification for what Hamas did,
but Israel's response is too much.
Too many civilians are being killed.
Some at the UN are even calling Israel's actions
potential war crimes.
And the world is calling for a pause in the fighting,
a ceasefire that would allow humanitarian aid
to get into the strip.
But a ceasefire is something that Israel's Prime Minister
says is not on the table.
- After the horrific attacks of October 7th,
calls for a ceasefire
are calls for Israel to surrender to Hamas,
to surrender to terrorism, to surrender to barbarism.
That will not happen.
- Egypt has just started letting foreign nationals
and severely wounded people in the Gaza Strip leave
and cross into their country,
but they continue to deny entry to the vast majority
of Palestinians who remain trapped
inside of this small rectangle.
But they are together with Qatar helping mediate
between the sides.
Already facilitating a deal that released four hostages
that Hamas had captured on October 7th.
For now, Iran's axis of resistance stands deterred
from escalating this any further.
Continuing small attacks,
but calculating that a wider spread conflict isn't worth it,
especially as the U.S. moves its troops into position.
It is a delicate balance.
One that could easily break or spiral.
All it takes is one miscalculation,
one attack that was meant to be a message,
but actually kills dozens of people
and elicits a stronger response,
which in turn elicits a stronger retaliation,
which could lead to an escalation,
a spiral into a catastrophic war in the Middle East.
(electronic music)
And in the middle of this all,
people and families who wanted nothing to do
with any of this,
who don't care about the geopolitical calculations
and the balance of power in the Middle East,
millions of people confined to a war zone.
Not sure if the last thing they'll ever see
is the next airstrike from Israeli jets.
Innocent civilian hostages kept in underground tunnels,
not sure if they'll ever see their families again.
And the families who are mourning
the loss of their loved ones
who were taken by this senseless conflict.
And at the root of it all,
the leaders in charge of protecting their people,
but who have instead chosen to pursue policies of division,
occupation, violence, and hatred.
The ingredients that produced this current situation.
(person speaking foreign language)
So for now, we will watch as the Middle East sinks
towards deeper and deeper conflict.
And we will hope that level heads will prevail
in the decision-making and that somehow we can prevent
more suffering and more loss of life.
This is gearing up to be months,
if not years of conflict in this region
and I'll be following it
and trying to make sense of it for everyone.
If you want a broader context of what the Gaza Strip is
and what the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is all about,
which I did not cover in this piece,
there is a great series called "Modern Conflicts"
by RealLifeLore where he goes into the roots
and the context of this conflict.
It's very, very important to understand
if you want to try to make sense of what's going on here.
The "Modern Conflicts" series
is available exclusively on Nebula,
which is a streaming platform
that is run by all of us creators.
I put all of my videos up there early and ad-free,
and there's a bunch of exclusive content
including the "Modern Conflicts" series by RealLifeLore.
But there's tons of other coverage of Israel and Palestine,
and it's a great way to learn not just about this conflict,
but many other conflicts and topics and histories.
I mean, on Nebula, there is a huge diversity
of really fantastic educational videos.
A lot of it exclusive to Nebula,
so you can't watch it anywhere else.
Last year, like 10,000 of you signed up for this
after I talked about it using this bundle deal
that gave you a big discount.
That deal is expiring now because it's been a year.
I just got the email saying that the bundle is breaking.
You're not gonna be able to have access to Nebula anymore.
If you want to retain your access to Nebula,
to watch my videos early in ad-free
and all this other stuff, there is a link in my description.
It is nebula.tv/johnnyharris.
If you go there, you can sign up and get a big discount
on Nebula by subscribing directly to Nebula.
It's $2.50 a month if you do the annual thing,
five bucks a month if you do the monthly thing.
A part of that subscription goes directly back to us
to help fund our journalism
to help us make more videos like this.
So if you're interested in watching a bunch of stuff
ad-free on Nebula and supporting this channel,
make sure to use the link.
Don't just go to nebula.tv,
you won't get the discount and you won't support us.
Use the link, please.
Ultimately, I love what we're building over at Nebula.
We have a news product that is launching early next year
that's gonna help bring important news to everybody.
And I'm just a believer in good,
independent journalism and creators banding together
to build something like this.
So I'll see some of you over a Nebula.
And for the rest of you, thank you for watching.
Subscribe to the channel if you're not already
and we will see you soon in a future video.
Thanks guys.
(electronic music)
Hey, for those still watching,
don't forget to check out our new channel Search Party,
which is run by my old Vox colleague, Sam Ellis.
Sam's working on a big video right now
that's another angle of the geopolitics of the Middle East,
which we'll be publishing in a few weeks
so make sure to go over and subscribe to not miss it.
(electronic music)