Fundamentals are only go so far.
It's the perception of fundamentals that I think is even more
important to me.
Silver could easily be grouped in some of the green New Deal
Commodities.
I don't know what amounts are used in solar panel.
I don't care.
Here's what I care about.
I care when the market changes, its focus and decides that silver is
going to be the flavor of the day the month, a six-month period, And I
believe that's happening right now.
I've been long silver for quite a while and it's been a painful tray.
I think it is a copper broke out of a pretty significant technical
pattern last week and a belief Silver's following it today.
Now, the way Silver's traded has been interesting and I've been trying
to make this argument for a long time, to being right about an
argument is different than being right about the price.
Obviously, silver has been trading with gold and it's been kind of
dead money for about the last six, seven months.
I believe the market was viewing it as a precious.
And trading it like a precious.
And I believe that the two point five trillion dollar crypto.
Currency Market was attracting some of the speculative inflation.
Hedge fiat currency risk, hedge money, and it was leaving gold and
silver for dead for the moment.
I think that both of those things are going to change, but I think the
silver is changing now to what degree torture.
Be, I think silver could easily trade back up to 35, ish from your
work, what it closed at today.
Probably around 25.
I've been buying it earlier in the week.
I think that
He too was the level once it came above 22.
I think that that there's great upside.
That's when you rely on your technical analysis to decide when that's happening.
In silver had a very interesting pattern that it broke below key
support $22.
Level in the silver, Futures contracts.
It's spent about a cup of coffee there and then shot right back above
it to me.
That was the first signal that that was perhaps going to respect that
support level and then it started building a base from there.
So to me, that's an indication that my fundamental thesis is being
It's not my phone and offices of the fundamental thesis is being
embraced by some and they're starting to get into silver and that's
the technical kind of and the fundamental go together like that.
I think that going forward and we really do believe that Supply chains
are going to be resolved, in that production in all different areas of
all different things.
Silver being used, for many of those the FED continues to say that.
It's the supply chain disruptions that are causing inflation.
The demand story is just as compelling and the demand is into stuff.
Ways there's the organic demand that happened, post pandemic from
pent-up demand and there's also the inorganic demand that's been
caused by the FED keeping rates at zero.
The federal government just continuing ejected money into the into the
system running up a national debt that's got gained seven trillion
dollars over the last year and a half that's mind-boggling to me.
Three trillion of it went directly direct to people direct to the
retail.
It's called 1.6 and direct payments 1.2 in forgivable loans to small
businesses. Business, they're just keep pouring money into the system, the
inflation thing.
There's one other component of it to, that's just starting to happen.
Now.
Now, I always rant about modern monetary Theory, which is the theory
that's been pushed forward by.
Dr. Stephanie Kelton Moser.
I'm sure everyone talks about as well too.
But one of the key tenets of that to in chapter 6 and it's just
brilliant the way it's playing out to they talk about wages and wage
inflation's.
And they believe it's the federal government's job as we're coming out
of any sort of crisis.
To bid for labor and compete with labor for bidding for labor with the
corporate sector.
It's an easy argument to be made that.
That's what's happening right now.
Things like student loan, forbearance, you be eviction moratoriums,
child tax, credit extended, unemployment benefits and many states.
And I know some of those have expired already, but it is and talk
about just inflate, minimum wage raises to.
So at the same time.
They're trying to bring the wage portion of inflation of it too.
And then you have everything, then you have
Demand, the supply, the wage, and then you can get into that wage
driven inflation cycle that they seem to have wanted.
And when I say they, I'm talking about the Federal Reserve for the
last 10 years.
And I just would say, be careful what you wish for, because it's
Insanity to me to let that cat out of the bag.
When you have zero idea, if you can control it or not, for me, I have
the whole dollar hedge section of my portfolio, which is real estate,
platinum, gold, silver, Bitcoin etherium.
There's other stuff to them.
Getting right now, but these are all to me.
What if, what if, you know, what if things get start to get really bad?
And I also and then there's different levels.
There's trading dollar weakness and then there's the gather, all your
stuff head for high ground because it's really hit the fan sort of
trade and that involves something a lot more serious than just owning
paper, gold and silver.
I do know I have friends and, you know, they used to be crazy Preppers
who had guns and gold and a house in the mountains.
Again.
I'm saying that the chance of a cat
declares MC currency event are low.
I think very low.
The dollars Global hegemony is currently not being challenged.
So I want that completely out there.
However, I think that it's changed greatly over the last couple of
years.
And at the end, the odds of that happening have gone up.
I think we're pointed directly with the policies that we have were
pointed directly at a path that leads to a cataclysmic currency
collapse, which is that's years and years away and there's exits all
along and all it's going to take is one.
Sensible adult in the room to take some of these exits.
Now, the question is, do we have them with?
I thought Jay Powell was the guy.
He seems reasonably seems solid, but the fact that he continues to buy
40 billion dollars a month of mortgage-backed bonds into a housing
market, that any logical person would tell.
You is on fire, to me, makes me question his competence.
Stop Printing money.
Okay, stop keeping rates in organically low, you can make an argument.
That rates have been kept in organic Lilo since the major mid to
early. We 80s.
So rates should be where borrower were borrowing meet slender when the
FED gets involved in that.
It does two things which lowers rates and increases malinvestment or
walking out the risk curve, which people wouldn't have done.
But it also affects just the messaging from certain rates, like the
repo Market, the FED involved in the repo market and they want to have
a standing repo facility, but Financial financial markets look to the
repo Market as an indication of the health and the
Hours and lenders within that structure.
Now, if the FED comes in and stands there and just their the central
Clearinghouse repo.
And by the way, I don't think anyone has to understand what repo even
is to understand what I'm saying here is that the FED is involved in
this transaction now and no longer.
Do we receive the messages from that from that rate?
Does that make sense?
Like what they've done in the real car fly like with the yield curve?
It used to be when the yield curve flattened and inverted.
We could believe that there was an imminent recession.
It was an excellent predictor.
Now, the FED is actively.
Actively manipulating long and rates.
Well that takes away some of the predictive power.
So all the sudden, you can think things are fine when they're not, or
think things are bad when you're not fundamentals, are only go so far.
It's the perception of fundamentals that I think is even more
important to me.
Silver could easily be grouped in some of the green New Deal
Commodities like copper for instance, copper people, loving copper.
We used to associate copper, just with the China story in the chain of
growth story.
And I think that's changed a lot too.
And I think part of that is the fact that coppers involved in the
green New Deal initiative.
Five times, as much copper is used in electric vehicle than a
combustion engine.
Now, silver is used in solar panels.
So silver is used in electric conductivity, which is very, very
important than the green deal.
Now, I'm going to make this point, I want to make sure you understand
is that I don't know what amounts are used in solar panel.
I don't care.
Here's what I care about.
I care when the market changes it to focus and decides that silver is
going to be the flavor of the day the month, the six-month period, And
I believe that's happening right now.
And that's technical analysis tells me.
So I use the fundamental story.
I think the fundamental story is real, when I say, I don't care.
I'm trying, I'm being a little bit overdramatic.
I do care but but the, the fundamental story is not as important as
the fact that the market comes to this realization at a time.
And you just try to be out of it.