It’s one of the fiercest battles of the war in Ukraine, as Russian and Ukrainian forces
battle over a city in the Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces doggedly defend their turf, even as the Russian forces mass around them.
The Russians keep pouring forces in, slowly grinding their way through the city - no matter
how much of it they have to destroy in the process.
The city is Soledar, a small mining town with just over ten thousand residents as of the
start of the war.
It’s the furthest thing from a major city.
So why is everyone fighting over it like it’s the key to the war?
Because it just might be.
Soledar was barely a footnote in the history of Ukraine and the Soviet Union.
Originally named Briantsivka by the Cossacks in the 17th century, and later changed to
Karlo-Libnekhtovsk under the Soviet Union, it gained its new name when Ukraine gained
independence.
Its name means “A Gift of Salt”, because it has only one key industry - salt mining.
While the town was an important location for resources, it never became a larger city in
the Ukrainian border regions, and it certainly never appeared in the news.
At least, not until the war began.
The Russians had been interested in Soledar for a long time, and in 2014 a group of Russian
agents captured the town - only to lose it several months later to the Ukrainian army.
It was the start of Putin’s obsession with the region.
When the larger war began in 2022, Soledar was directly in the line of fire, and the
Russians breached it in August.
But it was one of the places where the Russian offensive stalled out - and it remained largely
divided between the two armies for months.
But in the last days of 2022, the situation would change.
Russia didn’t have an amazing time in the closing months of 2022, losing many of the
regions they had already conquered and failing to make much headway.
So Putin mobilized the troops - relying heavily on the Wagner Group, a private paramilitary
organization loyal to Putin and known for its ruthless off-the-books operations.
The Russians quickly deployed forces far out of proportion with what would be expected
for a small mining settlement, and waged a brutal fight for the region.
The Ukrainian defenders stayed strong, but were massively outnumbered.
Several times, Russia announced that they had successfully conquered Soledar - only
for the Ukrainians to come roaring back.
But on January 11th, international observers confirmed that the Russians had likely overrun
the settlement and that the Ukrainian defenders had fallen.
And the Russian’s had gained…largely nothing.
The settlement was mostly abandoned during the early days of the war, it has no strategic
resources besides salt so a lot of blood and treasure had been spilled for no strategic
gains for the Russians.
And much like Mariupol before it, Russia had conquered a city of bones.
The Battle of Soledar largely destroyed the city, brutally shelling it.
While pockets of resistance remain, they’re now in Russian territory and will have to
decide between fleeing for their lives or facing certain doom.
Soledar no longer has any infrastructure remaining, or many citizens to subjugate.
It’s a symbol of victory to Russia when they desperately need one - but it still seems
like a poor use of resources at a time when Russia is running terribly low on soldiers,
supplies, and funding.
But it may be a chess move in a much larger war.
The war led to countless deaths, both of soldiers and civilians, but in the end Russia got what
it wanted - even if it would have to fight to keep it.
If there is one thing Russia has learned the hard way over the last year, it’s that Ukrainian
defenders never give up easily, no matter how outnumbered they are.
The meat grinder of a battle left Russian forces even more depleted, and the city largely
devoid of life, but it’s a huge feather in the cap for the Wagner Group, as their
leader Yevgeny Prigozhin will look to leverage it.
As the Wagner Group delivered one of Russia’s most significant military victories in months,
Prigozhin will likely see his clout with Putin increase.
The ruthless mercenary has criticized Russian military officials for being weak, and he
may seek a large prize in exchange for his increased military involvement - including
a share in Soledar’s salt and gypsum mines.
And as Putin becomes increasingly desperate for victories, Prigozhin may just find himself
becoming Russia’s de facto military leader.
So that’s why Prigozhin was so determined to claim Soledar - but what about Putin?
Think back to when you were a kid, playing Monopoly with your relatives.
The game was all about collecting propeties- and the more you took for yourself, the harder
it became for anyone else to win the game.
The war in Ukraine has become a macro version of that, with every battle being important
not because of what the town being fought over represents, but because of what it means
on the bigger scale.
Both countries are increasingly dependent on outside supplies, so getting as much land
with as many logistical connections as possible is crucial.
And Soledar might be the first salvo in a much bigger fight.
Located not far from Soledar is another ruined city - the much larger Bakhmut.
Once it was a thriving city in the Donetsk Oblast, with a population of 71,000 people.
Since the war began, the population was reduced by 97% and most of the city was turned to
ruins.
But regardless of its current state, the city is currently back in the hands of Ukrainian
forces - and it’s become a key prize for Putin.
And the easiest way to win a city is to encircle it - blocking the other side from bringing
in new supplies from any direction.
By taking Bakhmut Putin could cut of supplies to nearby Ukrainian positions making them
easier to take out.
But even this may be more symbolic than strategic.
The entire Donbas region is far from the heart of Ukraine, mostly consisting of farming and
mining towns.
Analysts describe it as the Kansas of Ukraine - and it’s one of the only regions where
Russia has had any lasting success.
While it can ruthlessly shell Kyiv and other large Ukrainian cities, it has not been able
to penetrate the heart of the country since the early days of the war - and any success
in the northwestern part of the country might rely on coaxing Belarus into joining the war
on Russia’s side.
So it may come down to Russia needing victories wherever it can get them.
Russia has been capturing settlements around Bakhmut for a while now, and they conquered
nearby Zaitseve in October.
The main target seems to be a key trunk road that supplies many of the Ukrainian front-line
positions in the northeast of the Oblast.
But even this proved to be slow, grinding work, with Soledar being the most prominent
win Russia has had in a long time.
While Russia may have gained control of the settlement, the depletion of troops and supplies
they experienced in the process may cost them more than they earned.
So Russia might find itself in an increasingly desperate situation.
Reports are coming in that Russia is on the verge of another large mobilization - including
likely another wave of conscription among civilians.
The last wave saw drafted men being sent into combat undersupplied and without sufficient
combat training which resulted in massive waves of protests inside Russia, the biggest
so far in the war.
A draft is never popular, but there is nothing less popular than a draft during a losing
war.
So before potentially taking this move, Putin needed victories - any victories - and retaking
the largely destroyed settlements gave them a high-profile win.
Soledar was the opening move, and Russia likely hopes to starve out the remaining defenders
of Bakhmut in the process.
But is this the start of a Russian comeback?
If you ask most analysts, the answer is a resounding no.
Most of the Donetsk Oblast was largely conquered by Russia in the early days of the war, and
most people expected Kyiv to be the key fighting ground.
Instead, Russia continues to scrape for every sliver of conquest.
Analysts believe that the conquest of Soledar and potentially Bakhmut would not change the
larger position of the war - because Russia still doesn’t have an effective way to reach
the larger cities of Ukraine with anything but indiscriminate rocket fire.
But the Russians may pick up one valuable asset.
On the surface, Soledar might seem like a humble mining village, but it’s home to
a very important location- the Soledar Salt Mines.
This massive complex with over a hundred and twenty-five miles of tunnels is located almost
a thousand feet underground - making it a deeply protected location.
Its unique climate has been claimed to have healing properties, and it contains a concert
hall, a church, and even a particle accelerator.
Access to this location could be a strategic asset that now belongs to the Russians.
But it’s not clear if it’ll make a difference in the long run.
Russia is working to take the east of Ukraine piece by piece, while relentlessly pounding
Kyiv and other cities with artillery fire.
But Ukraine has bigger ambitions - not just taking back the territory that Russia took
at the start of the war, but targeting the Crimean peninsula which Russia captured back
in 2014.
While Russia relies largely on its own dwindling Cold War artillery, Ukraine has NATO, the
EU, and other allies working to supply it with some of the most powerful modern weaponry.
While its supporters have so far hesitated to give it weapons that can reach further,
potentially into Russia itself, that taboo seems to be lessening - after all, if Russia
announces every weapons delivery to Ukraine is an escalation that threatens nuclear war,
they can’t be taken seriously every time.
So in all that, does Soledar have any significance?
Putin needs to show he’s continuing to make advances, not just to keep getting support
from his few allies but to convince his own people that the war is worth fighting when
countless Russian men come home in body bags.
Right now, Putin’s war effort is heavily reliant on supplies from a few outlaw nations
like Iran and North Korea.
For Putin to actually have a chance at winning the war without drawing NATO in directly,
he’ll need to pull some big moves - like getting Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko to
open a new front in Ukraine’s north.
Belarus, largely a proxy state of Putin’s, will be hesitant to risk its own army and
international standing unless it believes this is a war that Russia can win.
So the likely answer might be that Soledar isn’t a battle Putin has to win - it’s
a battle he can’t afford to lose.
The few Kremlin victories in the war have all followed a simple pattern.
When Russian forces really dial down on a city, it’s usually a small one in a key
location.
Rather than trying to conquer the city and its population outright, they usually overwhelm
the city with artillery and destroy just about everything - its history, its infrastructure,
and any unfortunate citizens who remain after most people have evacuated.
What’s left is little more than a smoking ruin - but one under Russian control, with
no opposition left.
Which indicates that Putin is determined to hold on to everything he currently has - and
if he can’t have it, no one will.
For more on Russia’s problems in the war, check out “Why Russia Is Running Out of
Tanks (War in Ukraine)” or watch this video instead.