hello and welcome back to the note well
we had the worst day since februari the
world stock markets yesterday today
we've had one of the best now we heard
from the feds late in the US afternoon
they published the minutes to their last
meeting that really didn't change very
much rate expectations were almost
unchanged afterwards the big driver came
from the oil market now if we take a
look at the oil price over the last two
years you can see obviously the dramatic
decline that it suffered in 2014 that
still hasn't been corrected you can see
in the last week or so an incipient
further decline it dropped some fifteen
percent from the peak it reached last
month there for the rebound that it's
had in the last couple of days even
though only just shows up on that chart
has been enough to restore sentiment in
the stock market quite considerably that
largely comes from inventory data here
in the States there is still a flood of
oil available here in America but the
latest numbers do show that inventories
have declined slightly that has been
enough to put up prices and to reassure
those watching in the stock market that
the oil price is not going to go on
another indefinite decline hence stock
markets have recovered now we also now
know that the Fed is watching this very
closely perhaps for me the single most
interesting line to come out of there
minutes was their clarification that
when they say they are data dependent
the data they depend on includes
international and financial data that
affect the economic outlook and that
includes both the oil price and as we
come to now the dollar now as you can
see the dollar strengthened radically
while the oil price was weakening and it
will has not escaped attention that it
is now weakening once more today it has
dropped on a trade-weighted basis to its
lowest level since last October as you
can see it's roughly at the same level
it's been for over a year now a weaker
dollar helps us companies it flatters us
profits and will generally boost the
stock market as well it also alleviates
pressure on emerging market countries
whose currencies had come under pressure
and where there had been some concerns
about a possible debt crisis therefore
if you see oil rising the dollar
weakening as you have today that
relieves everybody and so at least for
today you get a good strong day on the
stock