China is building up its drone fleet
Taiwan wants to build drones, too
But can they deter China?
Welcome to China Uncensored. I’m Chris Chappell.
YouTube has been hitting us hard with demonetization and age-restriction for
covering sensitive topics like China’s plans to invade Taiwan. So to get around that,
I’ve created a new gaming channel called Gamers Unbeaten . I sneak geopolitical analysis and
philosophy into gaming content. And this week’s episode is all about how Taiwan will beat China—in
a game of Civilization 6. Check it out, I’ll put the link below.
Anyway, It’s almost time for Christmas,
and the hot item on everyone’s wish list this year is drones.
Get your shopping done early, because drones are super popular—whether for fun,
business, or stopping an invasion.
Drone warfare plays an important role in the battlefield.
Both Russia and Ukraine understand that they need drones to fight each other.
According to the CEO of Baykar Technology, the Turkish company that provides TB2 Bayraktar
drones to Ukraine, "It is now out of question to have a war without drones and those who do
not harness the power of drones will be on the losing side of future conflicts.”
Wow. That’s quite the sales pitch. “Buy our product or
you’ll lose every war.” And here I thought
AXE body spray was aggressive when they say without their
product no woman will ever love you and you’re gonna die alone.
But he’s right, though. Drones are essential in modern warfare.
The Chinese military knows this, which is why it has gone “mad for drones” to pressure Taiwan.
Earlier this month, China showcased drones in the
14th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai.
They came in all shapes and sizes.
Okay, well, maybe just this one shape. But they came in different sizes!
Small enough to fit in salvo systems like this—which can launch up to 18 drones at once.
Or large enough to launch thousands of pounds’ worth of munitions and other drones.
Large drones like the Wing Loong 3 shown in this footage can reportedly fly more than
6,000 miles for up to 40 hours.
Yup, they make drones big enough to hold and launch other drones.
No wonder Russia loves them so much. They’re like a
flying Russian nesting doll. But for war.
Drones like the FH-97A can accompany China’s fifth generation J-20 fighter jets in missions.
China’s totally not copying from other countries.
Nope, definitely not copying, for example, the now infamous Bayraktar drone.
China is like the Vanilla Ice of technology.
It’s totally different. Their drone goes “ding ding ding diggy ding ding.” Our
drone goes “ding ding ding diggy ding ding *tis*.” See? It’s not the same.
The Chinese Communist Party, of course, knows that drones can also be used against them.
That’s why China is also developing systems to counter enemy drones,
such as the LW-30 laser system.
So with China building all these drones—presumably to invade Taiwan—Taiwan needs to respond.
But can Taiwan get the drones they need to stop or even deter China from invading?
More after the break.
Welcome back.
China is rapidly expanding its drone force, and Taiwan’s no stranger to the threat they pose.
The drones specifically, I mean. At this point,
the whole world should be aware of the general threat the Chinese Communist Party poses.
So Taiwan is trying to acquire drones of its own, albeit slowly.
Back in September, Taiwan reached a $555 million dollar agreement to purchase 4 MQ-9 SeaGuardians.
Those are a bit like Reaper drones, but designed to be flown mainly over water.
They can be used to spot ships and submarines,
and be upgraded to hold torpedoes and air-to-air missiles.
But it will take years for Taiwan to acquire these drones. The first of the SeaGuardians
is supposed to be delivered in 2025, with the last one arriving by December 2029.
So stop crying, Skyler. You’re not the only one who didn’t get
a drone for Christmas. Now enjoy your socks.
Taiwan recognizes that it needs more domestic drones to fulfill its security needs.
It already has some domestic systems in use, such as the Albatross reconnaissance
drone and the Chien Hsiang kamikaze drone. It also has the Teng Yun 2,
or Cloud Rider , which can shoot Hellfire missiles and other anti-ship missiles.
All of them were developed mostly by the National Chung-Shan Institute of
Science and Technology, Taiwan’s state-owned arms developer.
The problem is that Taiwan’s military procurement and manufacturing capability
is very limited, and they’re slow to innovate. By
the time Taiwan finishes making the latest gear, it’s already outdated.
It’s like how by the time your parents start using a slang term,
everyone’s already moved on to something else. No mom, this casserole is not “fleek.”
According to a policy analyst at a think-tank backed by Taiwan’s defense ministry,
“[Taiwan’s] military is still relatively backward in their use of drones.”
Taiwanese private companies have a very limited role. They’re only tapped in for narrow
manufacturing tasks. They can’t make proposals or do more to help Taiwan’s military innovate.
This might be the only time in history that *not* having
a military industrial complex is a bad thing.
But there’s a reason for this: security.
Makes sense. Taiwan’s economy is heavily intertwined with China’s.
For example, drones used in last month’s National
Day celebrations in one Taiwanese county were found to have Chinese components.
According to Wu Tsung-tsong, a minister in Taiwan’s National Science Council,
the motors, batteries and outer casings of the drones were manufactured in China.
“Chips in the drone’s flight control system were made by a European manufacturer,
but chips in the drone’s GPS system were made by Qualcomm”, an American tech company.
But Qualcomm is heavily invested in China.
I can see why Taiwan might be nervous. At the same time, Taiwan needs to develop as
many drones as it can, which is why it’s rallying domestic drone makers to prepare under a new plan.
“The government aims to organize Taiwanese private drone makers into
a ‘national team’ to develop unmanned aerial vehicle systems for… specific
missions in [the Taiwan Strait]”, with the first batch ready by July 2023.
In other words, “Taiwan is attempting to build a military drone domestic supply
chain within a year of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's efforts
to bolster… defenses against an increasingly belligerent China.”
And it’s investing 1.6 billion dollars to make that a reality.
You hear that, Skyler? If you want a drone so much,
then why don’t you just make a fleet of your own?
As for security against data leaks, there are calls for Taiwan to develop
a verification and certification system for drone-related products,
specifically for chips installed in the GPS and flight control.
There’s also recognition that Taiwan needs clear guidelines for how to use drones.
To be fair, a *lot* of people in my neighborhood need clear guidelines for how to use drones, too.
Taiwan has bigger issues, though. Like what kind of military unit would operate drones?
Are they intended for spotting Chinese naval ships operating in the greyzone? Are they for attacking
a Chinese invasion fleet approaching across the strait? Or for combat on the shoreline?
According to a senior official in the Tsai administration,
“[Taiwan’s] military has so far failed to present a clear concept for the use
of unmanned aerial vehicles in war fighting and to capitalize on [the] private sector”.
But the war in Ukraine is inspiring a lot of ideas.
JC Tech, a relatively new Taiwanese drone developer,
is producing Flyingfish suicide drones based on the US switchblades used against Russia.
But they’re not the same.
Other drones like the Taiwan-made Revolver 860 are seeing actual combat in Ukraine,
which gives valuable data for real-world application elsewhere.
If Taiwan can tap into the full potential of its private drone technology,
we could see Taiwan develop more drones such as shipborne surveillance drones and micro-drones.
But the real important question is… can they make drones that fire out other drones?
Russia wants to know.
And now, as a thank you to all my amazing fans who support China Uncensored through the crowdfunding
website Patreon or the exclusive media platform Locals, I’ll answer one of your questions:
Today’s question comes from
The Crazy Years on Locals:
“With the growing weakness in the Chinese economy, how does that affect the CCP's
plans for military expansion and a possible future invasion of Taiwan? Is China building a military
machine that will be too big to support and maintain, much less to continue to expand?”
Great question, Crazy Years.
The weakness in China’s economy definitely makes it harder for them to fund their
military expansion. In theory, that would make it harder for them to invade Taiwan.
But that doesn’t mean they won’t try to invade. Sometimes authoritarian regimes
use military conquest as a distraction from domestic problems, like a weak economy.
“Hey everybody, forget about the economy and join the patriotic war effort!”
So if the Communist Party goes that route, the Taiwan invasion could happen even sooner.
But there are lots of other factors that could delay the invasion—including internal CCP power
struggles, and whether they’re deterred by the military readiness of Taiwan,
the United States, and other countries. Obviously, that includes Taiwan’s drone army.
And of course, Taiwan would totally win, if this were a game of Civilization.
Thanks for your question, Crazy Years. And for supporting us on Locals.
If you’re not a supporter already, join us on Locals. For a small monthly contribution,
you can chat directly with me, Matt, and Shelley,
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The link is below. Once again I’m Chris
Chappell, thanks for watching China Uncensored.