In early February 2022, the Balochistan Liberation Army
launched a major attack against military bases in southwest Pakistan.
Coming on top of other recent attacks, including against international targets in the country,
this has drawn renewed attention to one of the world's longest running,
but relatively little-known, independence movements.
But what makes this insurgency particularly significant
is that it carries far wider implications.
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security and statehood.
Around the world, numerous armed insurgent groups
are fighting to unite with another country or establish their own independent states.
These include significant movements in Nigeria, Cameroon,
Ethiopia, Turkey, Indonesia and Myanmar, to name just a few.
While we tend to think of these insurgencies as essentially
internal affairs, they often have much greater regional and even international effects.
One of the most notable, and yet surprisingly little-known,
campaigns is cantered on efforts to secure an independent Balochistan.
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan lies in south Asia.
To its north is Afghanistan. To its east is China and India.
And to its south is the Arabian Sea.
Iran lies along its western border.
At 880,000 square kilometres, or 340,000 square miles,
it's the 33rd largest of the 193 members of the UN.
The country's population is currently around 220 million.
This makes it the fifth most populous country in the world, after China,
India, the United States and Indonesia.
While most Pakistanis are Sunni Muslim, with small Hindu and Christian minorities,
the country is made up of various distinct ethnic groups.
This includes the Baloch.
Speaking a language related to Iranian,
they represent around three and a half percent of the population.
As a group, they're mainly located in the south and west of the country,
where, at least according to official data, they represent a slight majority in Baluchistan;
the largest, but most sparsely populated, of Pakistan's four top-level provinces.
Additionally, while it's thought that around two-thirds of Baluch live in Pakistan,
around 30 percent live in southeast Iran and south Afghanistan.
There are also diaspora communities in Europe and North America.
Balochistan has a long history.
With the archaeological record showing settlements dating back 9000 years,
Alexander the Great passed through the area in 325BC.
Later it would come under Arab and then Mongol rule.
However, for our purposes, the story really begins in the mid 19th century
as Persia seized control of west Balochistan,
Britain pushed up northwards as it extended its growing influence in south Asia.
Following the First Afghan War, in 1839, it took direct control of parts of Baluchistan.
Meanwhile, the region's princely states became vassals of the wider British Indian Empire.
In August 1947, imperial India was partitioned.
This led to the creation of the new Hindu-dominated Union of India
and the Muslim-majority Dominion of Pakistan, which in turn was divided into two parts:
West and East Pakistan; the latter of which is now the People's Republic of Bangladesh.
As part of this process, the myriad of princely states across the subcontinent
were given the choice between independence or union with India or Pakistan.
While most of the states in Balochistan eventually decided to join Pakistan,
the largest - the Khanate of Khalat - chose independence.
Despite this, in the months that followed Pakistan put
heavy pressure on the khan to accept unification.
Amidst rumours that he'd been looking instead to unite with India,
on 27 March 1948, the khan finally agreed to accede to Pakistan - a controversial
decision many Baluch regarded, and still regard, as illegitimate.
In 1955, the Khanate was formally abolished and the various parts of
historic Baluchistan were united to form a single administrative unit.
From the start, tensions emerged in the region.
As well as armed opposition to the territory's incorporation into Pakistan in 1948,
there were further uprisings in the late 1950s and early 1960s.
In July 1970, and against the backdrop of growing secessionist sentiment in East Pakistan,
the military rulers reconstituted West Pakistan.
Balochistan became the largest of the country's four new top level provinces.
Despite this, yet another major uprising broke out in 1973.
This lasted until 1977, when it too was put down.
Over the next two and a half decades, tensions appeared to subside.
However, in 2005, a new insurgency erupted.
Set against the backdrop of the war in neighboring Afghanistan,
this time the revolt was driven by a combination of Pakistan's growing
military presence in the region and persistent economic underdevelopment.
While semi-arid, Balochistan is resource rich,
with large deposits of gold, copper, gemstones, coal and oil.
Despite this, the sparsely populated province has long been neglected by the central government.
Even today, by almost every measure,
it's still the least developed and poorest part of the country.
In response to this new outbreak of violence,
the Pakistani authorities cracked down hard on anyone suspected of having separatist sympathies.
Although it's unclear just how much public support independence really enjoyed,
with some reports suggesting that only a third of the region's inhabitants supported secession,
in the years that followed reports emerged of growing numbers of arrests and disappearances.
And while many detainees were eventually released,
albeit often after months of torture, thousands more were killed,
prompting widespread condemnation from leading international human rights bodies.
By 2013, international observers were warning about the region's descent into anarchy.
As well as concerns about Pakistan's heavy-handed response to the uprising, there was also growing
criticism of the main rebel groups; most notably, the Balochistan Liberation Army.
Having emerged as the largest and most well-organised of the various separatist groups,
it had been formally recognised as a terrorist
organisation by the British government as early as 2006.
More recently, in 2019 the US State Department also listed it as a terrorist organisation.
As the insurgency grew, the BLA's tactics became more extreme and diverse.
In addition to its continuing attacks on Pakistani targets,
it increasingly focused on China's growing presence in the region.
Seen as exploiting Balochistan's natural resources, and even termed an 'occupation'
by the group, an attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi, in November 2018, left four dead.
Since then, the group also appears to have stepped up its operations against the Pakistani military.
At the end of January 2022, the BLA attacked a military post near the port city of Gwadar.
Just days later, at the start of February,
it launched attacks on several military bases near Quetta, Balochistan's provincial capital.
At this stage, the precise details of the assaults are heavily contested by the sides.
According to reports from the Pakistan military,
the attacks were highly coordinated and the insurgents were extremely well armed,
using foreign-made automatic rifles and night vision goggles.
However, it insists that casualties were low.
In contrast, the BLA insists that its suicide bombers had killed more than a hundred soldiers.
Regardless of what exactly happened, the latest attacks are nevertheless seen as
the most serious escalation of violence against the military in several years
and potentially mark a dangerous new phase in the long-running insurgency.
This will no doubt worry Pakistan's leaders.
But any increased insurgency will also have other wider,
and potentially more worrying, implications for the country.
Most importantly, the attacks will almost certainly heighten China's concerns.
For Beijing, Pakistan - including Baluchistan - is crucial geopolitical territory.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which includes an extensive range of
transport and infrastructure projects totalling more than
60 billion dollars, represents a vital link in the high-profile Belt and Road Initiative
that's extending China's economic and political influence around the world.
Pakistan's deep water port in Gwadar provides potentially significant
time savings for goods from western China destined for Africa and Europe.
As has been noted, the land route through Pakistan means that Chinese companies
can avoid having to send goods to ports in the south and east of china
that then have to be shipped through the South China Sea and around India.
For these reason, China will no doubt be watching the escalating situation in Balochistan closely.
The BLA's activities have already put the relationship
between Islamabad and Beijing under strain.
But given the size of its infrastructure and transportation investments in the country,
and the role that Pakistan seemingly plays in wider Chinese strategic ambitions,
Beijing will also want to make sure that the insurgency
not only doesn't grow but will be brought under control sooner rather than later.
It's against this backdrop that the recent attacks
will almost certainly put an added strain on Pakistan's wider regional relations.
Significantly, the Pakistani government has been quick to blame India
and Afghanistan for the recent attacks.
Justifying its accusations, Islamabad has not only noted the sophisticated weaponry used by
the attackers, but it's also insisted that its intelligence services picked
up communications between the attackers and their handlers in the two countries.
In the case of India, such claims might be expected.
After all, there are long-standing tensions between the two countries;
not least of all over Kashmir.
Moreover, India has publicly accused Pakistan of
supporting terrorist groups operating on its territory.
That said, the Indian government has strenuously denied any link to the BLA.
In contrast, the claimed link with Afghanistan is perhaps rather more unexpected.
After all, Pakistan has long supported the Taliban.
However, it's widely understood that this relationship has been strained
in recent years as many suspect that ethnic Pashtuns have now started to
look to establish stronger ties with their brethren in Pakistan.
But, like India, the Taliban has quickly and firmly distanced itself from the attacks,
stating that whatever happens in Pakistan is Pakistan's internal affair.
There are numerous armed separatist uprisings taking place around the world.
One of the longest running campaigns,
albeit intermittently, has been the Balochistan independence movement in southwest Pakistan.
For over 70 years, since it was controversially incorporated into Pakistan,
the region has witnessed at least five major uprisings.
The most recent and most sustained of these began almost 20 years ago.
However, despite efforts by the Pakistani government to crack down on the insurgency,
which has led to widespread human rights abuses, the independence campaign has continued.
Apart from the domestic impact that this has had, this is increasingly touching on Pakistan's wider
international relation; not least of all on its strategically vital relationship with China.
In addition, it's also affecting relations with neighbouring India and Afghanistan.
All this considered, the question now is what can Islamabad do to put a stop to a separatist
conflict that's been going on for over seven decades and is now compounded by deeply rooted
economic, political, and social dissatisfaction.
I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some more videos that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.