In Italy we have a famous song:
In case the World is falling down, I go back a little bit to not get hurt. But what if an
nuclear bomb were to fall on the City where I live in Tuscany (which is Prato)? This is
something I ask myself with a bit of paranoia. How much "further back" am I supposed to ensure
I don't vaporize instantly? After all, the dogma of this era seems to be "never say never":
pandemics, wars, Italy out of the World Cup. Meanwhile, everyone wants to build
their own bunker. Yes, there are companies that specialize in this. Now you know. In Switzerland,
just to say, since 1963 it is mandatory by law to provide every building with a bomb shelter,
while in Italy we don't have any regulatory plan providing for the construction of bunkers.
At least in theory. But, hey, what’s the deal. We can always use our cellars as bunkers.
After getting all the permissions, of course. However, since a bunker costs several tens of
thousands of dollars and since I am not paid enough, if an atomic bomb were to fall on my
little town, Prato, I would have no choice but to run away. Hopefully with a fast car.
Luckily for me, a simulator, Nukemap, created by historian Alex Wellerstein, has been around
for several years now, showing the range of action, and destruction, of an atomic device.
We'll take a look at it, but before I give you any unjustified anxiety, I wanted to ask myself:
what are the nations that possess the warheads capable to unleash the atomic holocaust?
These are not so many, and the so funny "club of the atom" is currently limited to nine members: on
the one hand you have the " classic" United States, Russia, France, the United Kingdom,
China, all of the signatories of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,
but on the other hand you have 4 countries that are not yet members of such agreement,
namely India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel, even if the latter is only unofficially part of
it. Apart from a couple of them, they all seem to be nice and quiet. But surprise:
we Italians too have nuclear warheads at our disposal. Oh well, they are not really ours.
According to the NATO nuclear sharing plan, it has been decided to involve in the "nuclear warfare"
also some "non-nuclear" countries of the alliance like us italians.
Shared strategies and planning, mostly, but also supply of warheads. So much non proliferation...
I can smell it. The United States (and who otherwise?) have lent Italy, Belgium, Germany,
the Netherlands and Turkey their own toys that, of course, we all cannot use at our pleasure.
You all understand? Don't play with those gifts. The bombs are guarded by U.S. soldiers and without
U.S. codes they can't be used. But in case of war, we still have to prove that we are capable
of using them, and we cannot afford to fall off the wagon. According to a report by analyst
Hans Kristensen, of the Natural Resources Defense Council, in 2005 in Italy there were 90 warheads:
50 in the base of Aviano and 40 in the base of Ghedi Torre. Today the estimates point a
total of forty warheads, but it seems also to be a real secret bilateral agreement between
our country and the United States, called Stone Ax, which would provide for a further deployment
of American nuclear weapons on our territory. Making an estimate of the warheads currently in
circulation is a bit complicated but one thing is certain: Russia and the USA share about 90%
of the world's nuclear weapons. According to the Federation of American Scientist,
in the first part of 2022 the estimated number of warheads around the world is 12.700. Of these,
except those being dismantled, the actual warheads for military use are 9400,
but only 3700 are the ones currently deployed and operational, 2000 even in "state of alert",
ready for immediate use. Russia would be in the first place with 5977 warheads, followed by
the United States with 5 thousand 428, but if we take into account only the deployed warheads, the
United States would have a slight advantage: 1744 against 1588. Just to understand the difference in
level with the rest of the world, in third place China boasts "only" three hundred fifty warheads,
up to 20 of North Korea. You have to eat more uranium, Dear Kim. But we should go easy on good
old Kim, apparently he has some very dangerous new toys now. In fact, Pyongyang's latest tests have
glorified the power of the new Hwasong 17 missiles capable of reaching American and European soil.
Of course, so far they have not gone further than Japan. A coincidence, one might say.
Okay, potentially Kim could hit us right now. What about the others? France would have no problem to
hit their beloved cousins from Italy and since in the past they have already given us their
warheads (Zidane World Cup head scene) I would be careful. Also USA and UK may have no problem
to send us their missiles and neither Russia. Pakistan and India perhaps would not make it: both
the Pakistani Shaheen and the Indian Agni have a more limited range. After all they only care about
destroying each other and maybe hitting China. China, with its DF-41 missiles and especially
with the new hypersonic models, (when they'll be ready for use), has all the requirements to be a
good candidate to destroy my town in Tuscany. Come on, bring it on. You and what army? Mh,
they sound convincing. So, what would happen if a nuclear warhead fell right here in the exact spot
where I live? Let's say for example, a Russian warhead hits the ground right here. Purely random
example. First of all, according to the experts of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, it is
to be believed that the nuclear warheads today at the disposal of the Russians are around a charge
of 800 kilotons which, to be clear, would be equivalent to 800 thousand tons of dynamite. Those
of hiroshima and Nagasaki were between 15 and 20 kilotons. Intercepting a nuclear Intercontinental
ballistic missile is technically possible, but very difficult and unpredictable, given the
parabolic trajectory of the ICBM. The most basic system is basically just shooting a missile at
the missile. During the Cold War, that’s what Russians and Americans called “Anti-ballistic
missile”. But we never had the honor to experiment the effectiveness of this tactic so far. Hiroshima
and Nagasaki were the only two history cases of nukes dropped on civilians, and Japan didn’t
have any anti-ballistic missile at that time. The idea would be to hit the ICBM and make it blow up
somewhere other than its intended target. This with all the consequences it may have on the
atmosphere. Anti-ballistic systems are present in various countries and are still under full
development. Nowadays, India’s ABM system is capable of intercepting missiles up to two
thousand six hundred km and potentially to five thousand km. In a war scenario, no one has
activated their own defense system. Yet. And so, we can only speculate. In a report by the American
Physical Society Panel on Public Affairs, even the Americans seems to have a limited
capability to intercept an intercontinental balistic missile. In this study it is stated:
“the current capabilities are low and will likely continue to be low for the next 15 years”. So,
strikes from North Korea against the US are not fully prevented yet. And we are speaking about 20
warheads. Imagine six thousands Russian nukes. Goodbye Sirs. Proposed by the Administration,
The U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense, also known as GMD, is operational in both Alaska
and California and provides more protection against the Nuclear threat from North Korean
missiles or launches from Russia or China, but is likely less effective against missiles
launched from the Middle East. Here in Italy are developing the Aster 30 Block II system,
with a range of three thousand km. In the meantime we need to survive without it and look for two
NATO defense sites, one in Romania, the other one in Poland. This means only one thing: boom.
Detonated a few hundred meters above Piazza del Duomo – I Hope Our Dear Bishop forgives
me- the explosion would generate a ball of fire and hot air, of millions of degrees
Fahrenheit, that would instantly vaporize everything within a radius of 880 meters,
for an area of about 2 square kilometers. The shockwave will then spread fatally within an
area of 14 square kilometers from the explosion site, severely damaging and razing most buildings
to the ground. In general, anyone who manages to survive within a radius of 2 kilometers and
380 - which includes me - will have a short time because the radiation will prove fatal within
a month. at 4 km and 760 meters The buildings from the explosion will report moderate damage,
but the risk of fire will be high though. At a distance of 11 km and 400 meters, for a total
area of 409 kilometers so well beyond Prato up to municipalities such as Sesto Fiorentino, Signa,
Campi Bisenzio, Poggio a Caiano and Carmignano (but not the much hated city of Pistoia ...), the
hot air will cause third degree burns but you will not even feel them, it is very likely that your
pain receptor nerves will be already fatally damaged. Finally, the explosion will affect
a total area of 4 hundred seventy seven square km around the Cathedral of Prato and depending
on where the wind will blow, there will be a radioactive rain of one hundred eighty one km,
which will affect at different intensity a total area of four thousand square km. The
mushroom cloud on the ashes of Prato will be 19 km high, with a radius of the head of 25 km. So,
if I wanted to save myself at least from the damage of the explosion, I would have to move
at least 12 km from the center of Prato. I could be safe in Florence and yes, even in Pistoia. We
from Prato have some long lasting disputes with those in Pistoia. In case you're luckier than me,
you could always live near a large "public" fallout shelter. The luckiest ones in Italy live
in the province of Verona, in Affi, where there is the largest bunker of its kind in our country,
located in the bowels of Mount Moscal. Built in the Sixties to house a NATO command post,
it is 13 thousand square meters wide and can accommodate almost 1000 people. Once
well-stocked, for some years now it has been dismantled and is now almost unusable.
You can also try it in Trentino, under Mount Mais in Val di Non, where you will find the Gampen
Bunker. Being bombed during World War II, our country has hundreds if not thousands of shelters,
from private to public shelters. In nearby Florence you could look for one of the many
city shelters built to escape from the bombings: from the undergrounds of the Basilica of San
Lorenzo to Palazzo Vecchio. If you find yourself in Florence during a nuclear attack, observe on
the walls the presence of an R, indicating the proximity to a bunker. In Torino, then, under
Piazza del Risorgimento, there is still an active shelter capable of accommodating one thousand one
hundred fifty people, though during the war it happened to welcome twice as many people.
Just as in Naples, the population found refuge from bombing in the network of nineteenth-century
tunnels built by the Bourbons. Famous in Milan are shelter 87, under an elementary school,
and the network of Breda bunkers in the Parco Nord.
In Rome, Mussolini and Savoia had their own bunkers with blackjack and hookers.
Today you won't exactly find this luxury in the bunker under the park of Villa Ada,
once a Royal Residence wanted by King Vittorio Emanuele the Third. You will find instead an
anonymous and disturbing parking lot. Mussolini had two bunkers, one under Palazzo venezia
and another at Villa torlonia, both in Rome, but they were not even completed. But
45 km from Rome, in the meanders of Mount Soratte in the proximity of the town of Sant'Oreste,
you can find a vast tangle of underground tunnels, long 4 km and designed to accommodate
the highest charges of the army. These tunnels were then partially converted into a bomb shelter
by NATO during the Cold War. Yet, if some ill-intentioned nation wants to attack us,
we should expect more than anything else a direct bombing towards military installations,
such as Aviano and Ghedi, with consequences that Nukemap itself refuses to consider.
I apologize if I too have provided you with a daily dose of atomic anxiety. Just in case,
remember your potassium Iodide pills for radiation and Nukemap in your hand to calculate the damage
and the probability of survival. An advice: DO NOT simulate the explosion of the Tsar bomb,
the most powerful ever built and designed by Russia. You may experience nightmares.