Ukrainian tanks roll across the Kherson Oblast, pushing Russian forces back to Crimea. Artillery
shells rain down from the sky. Missiles and drones roar overhead. Troops slaughter one
another as Ukraine reclaims what is rightfully theirs. The Russians continue to fall back,
but there is nowhere left to go. Battalion after battalion surrenders. Ukraine's blue
and yellow flag rises in Crimea for the first time in almost ten years.
Vladimir Putin stares at the satellite feed of his troops surrendering. He can’t believe what is
happening. This should have been easy, he thinks. Russia’s military was massive; its intelligence
officers claimed that most of Ukraine wanted to rejoin mother Russia. Now he has lost all of the
territory claimed in the initial invasion. Putin grabs the glass of Vodka resting on the table
in front of him and hurls it across the room. It shatters against the concrete wall of the bunker.
“Gather the inner circle and tell them to meet me at the Kremlin!” he shouts at the
general on the far end of the table. “We need to get ahead of this thing before it’s too late.”
Konstantin checks the incoming feed from news outlets across the world. He runs a
proxy server in his Moscow apartment to hide his IP from the Russian authorities. He has
been monitoring the war in Ukraine since it started, and now it looks like Russia
has finally been defeated. From the beginning, he and an underground network of rebels have
been disseminating information to the general public about the truth of the war. They have
exposed Putin’s lies and led protests against the evil dictator and his administration.
Thus far, the Rebels have had very little success. The Kremlin controls all media
outlets in the country. Putin surrounds himself with people who he can trust and who tell him
exactly what he wants to hear. He has separated power in the government in a way that ensures
no other entity can gain enough influence to depose him. But the people are angry. They
have given so much for this senseless war, and all the Kremlin has given in return is
pain and suffering. Food is hard to come by; people are being worked to death, and still,
Vladamir Putin can’t think of anything else besides his own ambitions.
Konstantin opens a coded chat on the Dark Web.
He sends a message to rebels across Russia: “it is time.”
The Elites of Russia gather in secret. They never thought it’d come to this. They truly
believed Putin could be controlled, but this is clearly no longer the case. They told him
that Russia must win the war or he would have to step down from power, and now that Crimea is lost,
Putin has to go. This group of individuals controls almost all of the independent wealth
in the country. Their families have pulled the strings from behind the scenes for centuries.
They are not about to let Vladamir Putin ruin everything they’ve worked so hard to create.
Even though Putin refuses to admit it, Russia is weak. Its military is in shambles,
protests are breaking out around the nation, and the treasury is running dry. The Elites
of Russia sit around an old wooden table to discuss their next move;
the smoke of cigars fills the dimly lit room. “It’s been decided then,” a large man sitting
at the head of the table says to those gathered. “We will have Vladimir step down and replace him
with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. He will negotiate the reduction of sanctions placed
on our country by the west, and we can slowly repair the damage that the President has done.”
The other members of the Elite nod their heads in approval. They discuss the best course of action
to replace Putin. They will first try to convince him to step down willingly. If that doesn’t work,
they will make sure that the current President of Russia has an accident.
Vladimir Putin’s motorcade speeds towards the Kremlin. A group of very powerful people have
informed him that he has a meeting with Prime Minister Mishustin as soon as he arrives. As the
vehicle proceeds down the street, it’s stopped by a group of protestors blocking the way. They
shout obscenities at Putin’s motorcade. Some throw glass bottles against the bulletproof
windows as others hold up picket signs demanding Putin resign and free Russia from his death grip.
“Where is the Rosgvardiya?” Putin screams from the back of the car.
The driver looks back at the angry dictator in the rearview mirror. “They are on their way,
sir. It should only be a few more minutes.”
“No!” Putin shrieks. “I want these dissidents dealt with now. Run them over!” The driver
pauses for a moment. He opens his mouth to object, but before he can say anything,
gunshots fill the air. The National Guard has arrived and is using lethal force to
disband the protesters. Russian civilians are torn to pieces by the soldiers’ bullets;
Putin orders the man at the wheel to drive over the wounded and fallen. He has no choice. The car
bounces up and down as the wheels roll over the bodies of citizens lying in the street.
Konstantin watches in horror as innocent civilians are butchered at the Moscow protests.
It’s clear that Vladamir Putin and the current regime will never give up their power willingly.
The rebels need to escalate their tactics. Konstantin pulls out his cell phone and makes
the call he hoped would never come. He presses the number for a rebel codenamed Wolf. “Order the
printing of the recruitment pamphlets,” Konstantin says into the receiver. “We’re going to war.”
Vladimir Putin bursts into his office to find Prime Minister Mishustin sitting at
his desk. “What do you think you’re doing?” Putin hisses. Mishustin rises from the chair. “Listen,
Vladamir,” he says. “Our wealthy friends have decided that it is time I take over.
They have already deposited all the money you could ever need in a secure account.
All you have to do is step down and allow us to move the country in a new direction.”
Vladimir Putin suppresses the rage welling up inside of him. “And if I refuse?” Putin
asks. Mishustin lets out a sigh. “You know how influential the Elites are. They have
already ensured that you will give up your power one way or another.” He pauses for a
moment. “Even if that means the guards need to force you out of the Kremlin.”
Putin shakes his head and smiles at the Prime Minister, “I understand.” He walks
to the window and looks out at the square below. Mishustin is relieved. He honestly
thought the armed guards waiting outside might need to be called in to remove the
current President of Russia. They had already been paid off, and the transition of power was
going to happen either way. Mishustin is just glad it didn’t have to get bloody.
“There’s just one thing,” Putin says. He turns to face Mishustin,
who is still standing behind his desk. “Those guards the Elites paid off; I already had them
killed. I would say tell your masters that they will not be rid of me that easily,
but you won’t live long enough to give them the message.” Vladimir Putin pulls out a gun
from beneath his jacket, aims it at the former Prime Minister, and fires. Blood sprays across
the office as the back of Mishustin’s head explodes outwards from the exiting bullet.
Putin holsters the pistol, walks over to his desk, and picks up the phone. “Get me the
heads of the GRU. We have enemies of the State to deal with.” Russia’s Civil War has begun.
Rebel groups start to rise up across the country. They take control of local governments in smaller
towns. The cities are harder to secure as they have a large military presence in them. It’s
here that the Rebels fight bloody battles that seem unwinnable. Firearms used to be
heavily regulated in Russia for decades, but after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,
it became easier for people to get their hands on weapons. The government was so
focused on not losing the war that they couldn’t see what was happening within their own country.
The rebels take control of military vehicles that have been abandoned as forces are recalled
to Moscow to protect the current regime and put down any uprisings in the city. Konstantin meets
with other Rebel leaders in a damp basement. No one here is of elite status or holds any
power in the government; they are all just regular people. But they are also the voice
of Russia. They speak out for everyone who has been crushed under Putin’s boot or suffered as
the mad dictator tried to create a new Russian Empire. He has no regard for the well-being of
Russia’s people, and now they will make him pay dearly for the way they’ve been treated.
Konstantin points to a series of lines on the maps. “We need to take the railways,”
he says. “If we control the rail system, we control the movement of resources across the
country. We can leverage them to force the government to surrender.” The other
rebel leaders standing around the table nod in approval. Their numbers are growing every day,
but Putin’s military still holds all of the major cities. Most of Putin’s men
feel it’s their duty to follow orders and protect Russia from external and internal
threats. Putin has constructed a narrative that the West is funding the rebel cause. He
claims the Rebels are trying to destroy the Russian way of life from within.
Many have deserted Putin’s military to join the Rebels, but the misinformation campaign
has been successful, and the ranks of the Russian army have slowly begun to grow as the
population is force-fed pro-Putin propaganda. However, the rebels have launched their own
information campaign, and free-thinkers across the country are joining the cause.
The plan of the Elites has failed. Mishustin is dead. “So, you understand why we called
you here then?” the man smoking a cigar says. There is silence in the room. The Elites of
Russia look at the Chef. Yevgeny Prigozhin swirls the liquid in his glass around as he
contemplates the offer. The Elites of Russia want to pay the Wagner Group to
wage war against Vladamir Putin. For years Wagner has done whatever Putin has ordered,
but this group of Elites has made Prigozhin an offer he can’t refuse.
The Wagner Group are mercenaries for hire. Yevgeny Prigozhin has controlled
the organization from the shadows since 2014. He has become incredibly close with Vladamir Putin,
but only out of necessity. His sights are set on becoming part of the upper echelon of the Russian
government, and now the Elites of the country are offering him a chance to reach the top. It
will be incredibly dangerous to turn against Putin, but the reward far outweighs the risks.
“Very well,” Prigozhin says. “I will have my men deal with Putin and his forces. But in return,
I want to rule.” There is silence in the chamber. The Elites look uneasily
at one another. “Very well,” the man sitting at the head of the
table responds. “If you remove Putin from power, you can take his spot.”
Yevgeny Prigozhin smiles. He rises from the table and proceeds to walk out of the room.
“Pleasure doing business with you,” he says over his shoulder before the door
closes behind him. “You can’t be serious,” one of the Elites exclaims. “Prigozhin is a
means to an end,” the man at the head of the table says after taking a few puffs
of his cigar. “He will not live long enough to see the power he desires.”
Vladimir Putin and his private security force run through the halls of the Kremlin. A bullet
strikes the agent bringing up the rear. He falls to the ground but continues to fire at
the Wagner Group soldiers who are in pursuit. Putin was in a meeting with Yevgeny Prigozhin
to confront him about his mercenaries taking offensive positions around Novgorod. Suddenly,
a group of Wagner men burst into the room and began firing. Putin dove under his desk while
a battle erupted in his office. The mercenaries were gunned down by Putin’s security force, but
Prigozhin escaped. Now the President of Russia is just trying to make it out of the Kremlin alive.
Putin’s security force calls for backup. Members of the GRU and Russian Armed Forces move into
position. The mercenaries know they are in big trouble. The only way they are going to get out
of the Kremlin alive is if they capture Putin. The dictator and his men scramble out the back door of
the building. The mercenaries emerge a few moments later. Waiting for them is an entire battalion of
soldiers. They open fire at the mercenaries, mowing them down on the steps of the Kremlin.
Vladimir Putin cowers in an undisclosed bunker. He is afraid to leave its safety out of fear for
his life. The Civil War that has erupted in Russia has not been going well. Many factions
have appeared since the war in Ukraine was lost. Putin is still technically the leader of Russia,
but his rule is anything but secure. In recent weeks rebel forces have assassinated some of
his top lieutenants. They now control large parts of the Trans-Siberian Railway and other
major rail routes across the country. The Wagner Group, who Putin can only assume is
being controlled by the Elites that tried to replace him with Mikhail Mishustin, have taken
Novgorod and appear to have their sights set on St. Petersburg before they siege Moscow.
Ethnic groups that have been oppressed by Russia for decades see the Civil War as an
opportunity to reclaim their homelands. The Chechens, Chuvash, and Buryats have
declared independence from Russia and claim to be their own sovereign nations. Putin’s empire is
fracturing all around him. He still controls the largest military force in the country,
but wherever his soldiers are sent, there seems to be opposition. Putin thinks that if only he
hadn’t wasted so much money, resources, and assets in his invasion of Ukraine,
maybe he could have crushed his rivals and remained in absolute control of the country.
And the bad news just keeps coming. Reports that Chinese forces are starting to invade eastern
Russia reach Putin in his bunker. Originally, Vladimir Putin had called on his allies in the
People's Republic of China to aid him in his fight to maintain control of the nation. President Xi
Jinping told Putin he would send supplies and men to secure key positions in the eastern part of
Russia. This was a lie. As Putin waited for aid that would never come, Chinese forces began to
mobilize with their sites set on capturing areas that contained large amounts of natural resources.
Konstantin peers down the scope of his sniper rifle. The rebels received intel
that one of Putin’s top generals has a meeting with the mad dictator today. If
they can track the general’s movements, they can finally determine the location of the
so-called President. Most of the Russian people don’t recognize Putin’s authority
anymore. The Rebellions numbers have grown into the tens of millions. Not everyone is armed,
but the unified civilian population of Russia holds a lot of power.
Workers who no longer want to answer to Putin’s government have begun manufacturing weapons and
supplies for the rebel cause. Farmers are harvesting crops and hiding them
so that the Russian military runs out of food. The unification of the Russian people who have
suffered for so long under Vladamir Putin’s brutal reign poses the biggest threat to the
President's success in this Civil War. The Elites of Russia have secured major cities using the
Wagner Group and other hired mercenaries, but without the support of the masses,
it’s unclear if they will be able to install the government they desire.
The scariest thought for both the Elites of Russia and Vladamir Putin is that the Rebels
fight for democracy. The people want a voice in their government,
and they know that if either Putin or the Elites win this Civil War, the status quo will
be maintained. The government will be controlled by a corrupt collective of individuals who only
care about their own interests. Nothing is more terrifying for the other factions than the Rebels
winning and installing a democratic government reminiscent of their sworn enemies in the west.
This is the one thing they’ve been fighting against since the rise of the Soviet Union.
Konstantin watches as the target steps out of the car. The general looks around uneasily.
He is flanked by two GRU soldiers. This must be the location, Konstantin thinks. He moves
to the next window of the abandoned apartment building he is hiding in to get a better look
at where the group goes. They proceed down the block and stop at a rundown structure.
Rebel intel suggests that this used to be an old KGB office. There is likely a bunker beneath it
in case a nuclear attack was ever launched during the Cold War. This must be where Putin is hiding.
Konstantin knows he can take the shot now and eliminate a top general, or he can call in for
backup, and hopefully, the rebels can bring Putin to justice. He takes a deep breath and holds it.
The general is in his crosshairs. He sighs the air out of his lungs, lowers the sniper, and picks
up his cell phone. He sends a text to the leaders of the Moscow Rebels to converge on his location.
This is a big risk. It could be a trap laid by Putin and his allies to draw out the rebel
cell. And if the President isn’t in the building, this could all be for nothing.
Konstantin packs up his gear and heads down to ground level. In a matter of minutes,
rebel forces will arrive, and then it will be clear if this was all worth it.
The Wagner Group is facing its own problems in St. Petersburg. Loyalists to Putin have
barricaded themselves in the city. Urban warfare is costing the lives of thousands
of mercenaries and soldiers. The general populace is being targeted by terror attacks as the Wagner
Group tries to get them to turn on the Russian Army. This tactic has left tens of thousands of
civilians dead in St. Petersburg's streets. Many Russian civilians have fled the country
seeking asylum in Finland and Poland. In other parts of the nation, the Russian
people are crossing whatever border is closest to try and escape the chaos of the Civil War.
There is a refugee crisis on a scale of which the world has never seen before. And the most
astonishing part is that Ukraine is offering to aid Russians who are fleeing the conflict. The
war between Russia and Ukraine was horrible. Yet, people show signs of great compassion even in the
darkest of hours. Ukrainian is still recovering from the war, but with the help of the United
Nations and various non-profits, it has been rebuilding its infrastructure. The Ukrainian
government has taken in Russian refugees and helped them reach other nations offering asylum.
The Russian Civil War is bloody and brutal. The Russian people are suffering at the
hands of various factions trying to fill the power vacuum. The rest of the world
watches as Russia consumes itself. Everyone hopes that when the dust finally settles,
Russia will be controlled by the people. The refugees can then return home to help build
a better nation, but this all hinges on Vladamir Putin being removed from
power and the government staying out of the hands of the power-hungry Elites.
“Give me a status report!” shouts Putin in his underground bunker. The general takes off his
hat and holds it by his side. “The Wagner Group is using terrorist tactics to try and secure St.
Petersburg.” the general replies. This comes as no surprise to anyone. Putin encouraged
such behavior when he used the mercenary group during his invasion of Ukraine and
in other parts of the world where Russian interests were being threatened. However,
never in his wildest dreams did he think the Wagner Group would turn against him.
The general tells Putin that the Russian Army is running out of weapons, supplies,
and soldiers. The railways have been secured by Rebels and are no longer
running into Moscow. The Elites are gaining support in the middle of the country. And
the ethnic minorities have set up their own governments, which have fortified
their borders with militias and anything that the Russian military left behind.
Vladimir Putin can’t believe what he’s hearing. It seems as if he will lose the Civil War. However,
in the back of his mind, the seed of destruction has begun to grow. If he can’t have Russia,
no one can. “Bring me the Cheget,” Putin hisses. The general freezes. “You can’t
be serious,” he asks. Putin looks at him with a fire burning in his eyes. “If you won’t bring me
the nuclear launch codes, I will relieve you of duty and have someone else do it!” Putin screams.
The general looks around at the other soldiers in the room. They are loyal to Putin and will kill
him if he tries to stop the psychotic dictator. The general left the black briefcase in the car
with one of his most trusted advisors. He closes his eyes and shakes his head. “God
forgive me,” he whispers as he heads towards the door of the bunker to retrieve the Cheget.
As the general pulls the door towards him, a trip wire is tightened on the other side. An
explosive detonates, blowing the door inwards, ripping the general’s body apart in the process.
There is shouting as a group of Rebels wearing gas masks enter the bunker. Putin’s guards try
to pick themselves up off the ground and secure their leader, but the Rebels unload round after
round into anything that moves. Blood sprays across the concrete walls, muzzle flashes
ignite like firecrackers, the screams of Putin’s soldiers cut through the smoke. Then all is quiet.
The rebel fighters check around the bunker for any signs of movement.
“Over here!” one of them yells. The smoke has begun to dissipate.
Konstantin takes off his gas mask and makes his way to the back of the bunker, where one of the
Rebels is standing. He looks down at the man lying on the floor. Vladimir Putin stares up at
him with terror in his eyes. Blood is seeping from a wound in his chest. Konstantin pulls
out his pistol and aims it at Putin’s head. “For Russia,” he says and pulls the trigger.
With Vladamir Putin dead, the rest of the Russian government quickly crumbles. The rebels have
secured most of Moscow, and anyone who was once in Putin's inner circle has either been captured,
killed, or fled the country. The Elites of the nation still employ mercenaries
to do their dirty work. Their goal is to reclaim control of the government,
but they do not have the numbers to defeat the Rebels.
The Rebels are now almost in complete control of their country. The Civil War is not over,
however. There are still battles to be won against Putin loyalists and what remains of the Elite’s
mercenary forces. The Russian people will continue to suffer until these factions are dealt with. But
the Rebels gain more and more support each day. They express their desire to create a government
for the people, a democracy where everyone has a voice. This message reaches the rest of the world.
Countries around the planet rally behind the Rebels. They send them
aid and weapons. Eventually, the fighting is over. The ethnic groups who have claimed
independence become sovereign nations. The government in Moscow is restructured to
resemble other democracies around the world. Elections will be held for all
positions in the new administration. Rebel leaders ask for assistance in
setting up this new system to ensure it is fair and held accountable for its actions.
The United Nations sends diplomats, medical personnel, and peace forces to
help the nation transition. The international community rallies behind the Russian people,
forcing China to return the territory it seized during the Civil War.
Perhaps this is an optimistic outcome for a Russian Civil War. It is more likely than not
that if Russia loses the war in Ukraine, there will be a push to remove Putin from power. This
could very well cause a popular uprising and rebels such as Konstantin to take up
arms against their own government. Then again, Putin has structured Russia in a way in which
power is divided so no single faction can overthrow him. It’s a terrifying thought,
but as we’ve already seen, Putin is not afraid to turn Russia’s military against its own people.
If a Civil War erupts in Russia, several factions will compete for power. It will
be a brutal and deadly battle. The world can only hope that weapons of
mass destruction don’t make an appearance during the struggle.
Now watch “What if Ukraine Wins the War.” Or check out “What Caused The Korean War.”