Throughout its history,
Ireland has clung firmly to the principle of neutrality and steered clear of NATO.
But there are now signs that this is changing.
Having strongly supported Ukraine following Russia's invasion,
and with growing Russian naval activity around its coast, there's an increasing
realisation that the country's wider political, security, and strategic environment is changing.
Meanwhile, an explosive new revelation has
seemingly undermined a long-standing argument against NATO membership.
But, despite all this, many remain opposed to any change in the country's alignment.
So, why is Ireland neutral?
And is it time for it to reassess its position on joining NATO?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
The war in Ukraine has opened debate across Europe about neutrality and NATO membership.
But while Finland and Sweden have now abandoned their previous stances to pursue NATO integration,
there are still four EU members that remain outside the organisation:
Austria, Cyprus, Malta, and Ireland.
For most of its existence, Ireland has had an official policy of military neutrality - a
policy that's come to be seen by many as an integral part of the national identity.
However, this has now been questioned.
As the government prepares for a public consultation over the
country's defence orientation, arguing that Ireland needs to consider how best
to respond to new realities in the International System,
many are asking whether it is in fact time for Ireland to abandon neutrality and embrace NATO.
Ireland lies in northwestern Europe.
While the island of Ireland is divided - with the northern 17 per cent or so of the
territory under the sovereignty of the United Kingdom - the area officially administered by
the Republic is around 70 000 square kilometers or 27 000 square miles.
This makes it the 118th largest member of the United Nations.
The population is 5 million.
Driven by rapid economic growth in recent decades that's attracted many international tech giants,
the country's per capita annual GDP is now around US$100,000.
This is the second-highest per capita GDP in the European Union after Luxembourg.
Ireland has a long and rich history.
First inhabited around 8 000 years ago, it was later settled by the Celts who established
a patchwork of kingdoms until it united under a single leader in the 10th century.
In 1171, Henry II of England invaded, establishing Anglo-Norman control.
This marked the start of centuries of English and in British rule.
But by the middle of the 19th century, and against the backdrop of growing religious
divisions between the Protestant settlers and the majority Catholic Irish population,
as well as a famine that saw hundreds of thousands die or emigrate,
the pressure was growing to end British colonial rule.
This came to fruition after the First World War.
Following an uprising, the British government decided to partition the island.
While retaining control over the predominantly Protestant Northern six counties of the island,
it granted self-rule to the remaining 26 counties;
which then became a British Dominion alongside Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
From the start, the Irish Free State, as it was known,
tried to distance itself from Britain and limit its possible role in foreign conflicts.
This was guaranteed under the constitution,
which explicitly stated that it couldn't join any wars without parliamentary approval.
This was again emphasised in 1937 when Ireland became a republic.
While it remained loosely associated with Britain,
its new constitution underscored its commitment to cooperation between
states and the peaceful settlement of disputes in line with international law.
However, the formal principle of neutrality was only proclaimed at the start of the Second
World War, when Ireland refused to join the Allied battle against Nazi Germany.
While this remains a highly controversial decision,
historians have noted that Ireland was inclined towards the Allies.
Although it allowed Germany and Japan to retain their embassies in the country, the government
cracked down on anti-British activity and shared vital intelligence with the Allies.
On top of this, around 50 000 Irish joined the British armed forces, and tens of thousands more
contributed to the wider British war effort, such as by working in factories or on farms.
Following the end of the Second World War and the start of the Cold War,
the question of Irish neutrality again came to the fore.
Having finally broken its last remaining links to Britain and left the Commonwealth,
Ireland was now a completely sovereign and independent state.
And in 1949 the United States invited it to join the newly
established North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO.
However, the Irish government flatly refused.
In its view, a formal military alliance with the United Kingdom, which continued
to occupy a part of its constitutionally claimed territory, was unacceptable.
Ireland therefore retained its neutrality not so much out of ideological conviction,
but because of the political realities it faced.
Indeed, even today, and unlike many other neutral countries,
neutrality has never formally been written into the Irish Constitution.
But while Ireland remained outside of the Western Alliance, it nevertheless built up a valuable
reputation on the international stage, especially as a contributor to UN peacekeeping missions.
Over 60 years, it has sent troops from the Irish Defence Forces to a number of
international hot spots, including the Congo, Cyprus, and Lebanon, amongst many others.
By the 1990s, the context of Irish neutrality had changed considerably.
For a start, relations with the UK were very different.
In 1973, Ireland joined the European Communities,
as the EU was then known, alongside Britain and Denmark.
Then the landmark 1998 Good Friday agreement opened the way for eventual
Irish unification and led to a fundamental transformation of Anglo-Irish relations.
Meanwhile, the end of the Cold War also played a part.
In 1999, Ireland followed other neutral countries,
and even Russia, and joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program.
However, despite all this, neutrality remained firmly embedded in Irish thinking.
This was highlighted in 2009 when the European Union signed the Lisbon Treaty.
While this envisaged closer defence and security cooperation between the members of the Union,
Ireland insisted on a protocol to the agreement that specifically
reaffirmed that the treaty did not affect or prejudice its traditional military neutrality.
But while it may have seemed as though Irish neutrality was now set in stone,
the war in Ukraine has thrown the issue wide open.
From the start, Ireland has openly and unequivocally supported Ukraine.
While it may be militarily neutral,
it has emphasised that this does not equate to political neutrality.
Having strongly condemned Russia's invasion, Dublin has supported key moves against Moscow,
including the imposition of EU sanctions and the
decision to expel Russia from the Council of Europe - a leading human rights body.
But it's gone far further than this.
Ireland has also provided Ukraine with 55 million euros of non-lethal military
aid as part of a coordinated wider EU contribution to the war effort.
In addition, it's agreed to train Ukrainian forces, albeit in another EU member state.
Many would argue that this has pushed the idea of military neutrality to its very limits.
Meanwhile, other factors have pushed the debates,
not least of all growing Russian naval activity around Irish waters.
While Ireland may seemingly sit at the periphery of Europe, far from
the front line of any conflict, its strategic position is becoming more and more significant.
Many vital undersea communications cables run from Ireland to North America.
With growing fears that Russia might be preparing to attack these cables in retaliation for Western,
and Irish, support for Ukraine, the Irish government is reportedly
considering joining a NATO project to protect this critical infrastructure.
All this has led many to call for Ireland to go even further
and formally abandon its neutrality and join NATO.
But while the government hasn't officially called for this as yet,
it's clear that it's now keeping its options open.
For example, the governing parties have already rejected a proposal
to codify neutrality into the Irish Constitution.
And the country's EU affairs minister stated openly that the Russian invasion
of Ukraine was forcing Ireland to reconsider its neutrality.
And it's against this backdrop that the call for a public consultation
seems to be another significant indication that the idea of a
fundamental change to Ireland's strategic position is being seriously considered.
But while there's little doubt that the debate is evolving,
many argue that Ireland should keep its neutrality - and for various reasons.
First, there's the existential argument.
Neutrality has become a fundamental, if not sacred part, of the Irish identity and
defines the country's place on the world stage, especially as a UN peacekeeper.
Abandoning it would mean that the country loses that standing.
However, those on the other side of the debate argue that this isn't the case.
They point out that one of the most successful
mediators in world politics is Norway - a NATO member.
Secondly, there are pragmatic arguments.
There's simply no need to abandon neutrality no one is pressuring Ireland to change its stance.
Moreover, it's effectively protected by NATO anyway.
And while some countries, such as Finland and Sweden, may have changed their stance,
others, such as Austria, show no signs of changing their perspective.
Tied to this is the cost question.
Ireland has one of the lowest defence expenditures of any EU member, at just 0.3 percent of GDP.
Joining NATO would require this to increase significantly.
NATO members are expected to spend two percent of their GDP
on defence, and many see this as an unacceptable diversion of spending.
However, critics argue that Ireland's current position is tantamount to freeloading.
Ireland is gaining the advantage of a broader European defence umbrella, but isn't contributing.
Moreover, regardless of where it stands on neutrality,
there's a growing sense that it will have to spend more on defence anyway.
And the government has already announced the largest increase
in defence spending in the country's history.
But the final main argument centres on the original reason for neutrality.
Despite the progress made over Northern Ireland, many feel it's still inconceivable
that Ireland could formally ally with a country occupying Irish territory.
However, leaving aside their long-standing partnership in the European Union,
which of course has now come to an end, this this argument has recently been challenged
by an extraordinary revelation that a secret agreement reached in the 1950s
has seen Britain provide Ireland with air security for the past 70 years - a
report that the Irish government now refuses to either confirm or deny.
Taken together with the fact that Ireland would be guaranteed defence from Britain,
the European Union, and, perhaps most importantly, the United States in the event of any attack,
many argue that it's time for the country to accept reality and push ahead and join NATO.
So, will Ireland abandon neutrality and seek NATO membership.
At this stage, it's hard to say.
The polling data is certainly very mixed, and even contradictory.
For example, one poll in April 2022, soon after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, showed that while
70 percent of Irish supported sanctions on Russia, two-thirds wanted to keep neutrality.
Later, another poll showed a more even split between the two,
with 52 per cent favouring joining NATO versus 48 per cent against it.
As things stand, a referendum on the issue - and it would almost
certainly require a popular vote - could seemingly go either way.
But even if full NATO membership is still seen as a step too far, other options exist.
Closer cooperation with the organisation short of joining
may be an acceptable alternative - as we're perhaps already seeing.
Another possibility is that Ireland could abandon its formal neutrality
and become more integrated into European Union defence structures.
But, regardless of where the decision finally lands, the current discussions in Ireland have
again shown how the Ukraine war has profoundly affected European and International Security
debates - and forced many countries to rethink long-held views about their place in the world.
Of course, Ireland isn't the only country grappling with neutrality.
Here are some more videos exploring the debates elsewhere.
Alternatively, here's another video that you might like.
Thanks so much for watching, and see you in the next video.