Every day the sun bombards us with solar energy. Absorbed solar radiation fuels the climate system
and life on our planet, and while we're used to cosmic rays bathing the earth and warmth this
fluctuates. Just as earth has seasons the sun has cycles and how these change have a huge impact on
the climate back here on earth. I'm your host Stefan and welcome to Geophysics Explained.
Every 11 years the sun goes through a solar cycle. The point in time with the most sunspots is the
solar maximum. Scientists have been studying these sunspot ebbs and flows for hundreds of years, and
now it's been confirmed that this 11-year cycle is governed by the flip of the sun's magnetic field.
The sun is the largest magnet in our solar system, and once every 11 years north becomes
south and south becomes north. The sun's magnetosphere stabilizes fairly quickly
but is at the height of each magnetic flip when the magnetosphere is the most unstable that there
are more sunspots and energy eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections.
Sunspots are regions on the surface of the sun which appear darker because they are cooler
than the surrounding solar material. In 2020 solar cycle 25 started and these cycles begin
when sunspot activity is near zero and the magnetic field is stable. What gives sunspots
their temperature gradient are minor perturbations in the magnetic field at the surface of the sun.
During solar maximum when the magnetosphere of the sun is mid-axis flip, strong magnetic field lines
from the core of the sun bulge out of the surface at an increased rate, flinging energy into the
solar system. While this is a volatile process the increased pressure from the center helps
the magnetic poles to stabilize and center after a 180 degree rotation. While the surface of the sun
might be slightly cooler from increased sunspot activity the sun during these solar maximums emits
more energy overall. When there are few sunspots the energy emitted from the sun is more stable
but with less eruptions and flares occurring it is not as strong as during a solar maximum.
We've gone through long periods of low solar activity before. From 1645 to 1715 sunspot
activity was almost non-existent during the Maunder Minimum. This 70-year time frame
nicely fits into a period of global cooling on earth that occurred beginning in 1650.
The climate of earth and how it changes is still being understood and we start by identifying the
main inputs into the climate system. These are solar energy emitted, geologic processes like
volcanism, biologic drivers such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases, the great oxygenation event,
and carbon sequestration, reflectance i.e albedo, and unexpected occurrences such as asteroid or
comet impacts. There are more than just these but these are the big ones. Chaos cannot be predicted
and our resources will be stretched to stop an asteroid impact. Here at home the geologic and
biologic processes are impactful but only in the context of a stable solar cycle. The sun is the
largest energy source in the solar system by far and the amount of energy flowing from the sun into
earth is the most important climate variable. With the magnetic pole reversal driving the solar cycle
by studying the changing magnetosphere of the sun scientists have learned how magnetic fields
can be useful indicators of energy flux. Measured consistently for hundreds of years the frequency
and intensity of these solar energy fluctuations can then be compared to other important climate
measurements like temperature and CO2 levels. Looking at 140 years of temperature data starting
in 1880 plotted alongside total solar irradiance, interesting patterns emerge. The sudden rise in
global temperatures from 1970 and on was predated with the total solar irradiance local maximum
by exactly one solar cycle. From that solar irradiance peak in 1959 solar radiance has
overall gone down yet temperatures continue to rise, with atmospheric CO2 rising proportionally.
Viewed across the entire 140 year stretch total solar irradiance was fairly stable,
staying in a tight range between 1360 and 1362 watts per square meter yet during this time
period temperatures rose by 1 degree Celsius. If total solar radiance is relatively unchanged
then the temperature increase we experienced was most likely caused from something else.
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations driven primarily by human-led activity have been quickly increasing
with current rates far exceeding other upticks observed in the geologic record going back
millions of years. With solar radiance having been roughly stable over the past 140 years the
temperature increase is most likely attributable to the well-studied greenhouse gas effect. With
this changing atmosphere more solar irradiation is becoming trapped and reflected back to earth.
With the knowledge that influx solar activity has a leading impact on earth's climate as was
clearly demonstrated during the Maunder Minimum when solar irradiance and global temperatures
both took a dive, then other scenarios can be carried out as thought experiments.
Increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have increased solar energy absorption,
warming the planet up significantly even during a period of solar calm, and if total solar activity
was to begin increasing then the effects of that increase will be even more pronounced now than
they would have been otherwise. For the past 65 years from 1955 to 2020 we've been absorbing
more solar irradiance off less input, and the late 2010's saw the hottest global average temperatures
on record. The activities we have here on earth don't affect the sun but they affect how the sun
affects us. Without other balancing factors to the rescue a hypothetical warming trend from the sun
that could last 20, 30, 50 years or longer could tip the earth's climate as we know it
completely out of balance. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and water scarcity
would be much more common, and other natural disasters like storms and hurricanes would
become more violent and more frequent as there will be more available energy in the system.
By playing with climate systems we don't fully understand and rapidly increasing
atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the process of industrialization, humanity will need to adapt its
carbon emissions depending on the activity of the sun moving forward. During intense solar cooling
like what happened during the Maunder Minimum, carbon emissions could be good for society for
putting food on the table, but during periods of increasing solar activity carbon sequestration
efforts through planting trees and better stewardship of the oceans would keep us
from going through dramatic warming trends. With the warmer temperatures we've been experiencing
especially at the north and south poles less snow and ice have been reducing the planet's albedo
reflecting less solar energy back to space and other variables like melting permafrost
also contribute to the warming trend by increasing CO2 in the atmosphere even further.
With solar cycle 25 predicted to be much the same as cycle 24 and with anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions still increasing globally, the next solar maximum could bring
some very hot temperatures to the home we all share in this big universe, spaceship earth.
If you'd like to make a difference and help this planet be a safer a more beautiful place for us
all to live on planting trees is one of the most impactful activities possible, one that has the
potential to last long after your life. Other huge impacts you can make are reducing your individual
greenhouse gas emissions and only buying food and products from eco-conscious companies.
Starting a garden and taking up different crafts can also help you stay climate neutral
and offset the polluting actions of others. Every dollar spent is a vote for how you want to impact
the planet so be mindful of this fact always. Thank you for watching this Geophysics Explained
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presence organically. Peace to all you my friends and I'll see you all in the next video. Namaste