Miriam: Put extremely simply, the climate is changing, now and rapidly, because people,
me, you, governments, companies, are pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere - most
commonly by burning fossil fuels.
This is already having a big impact: rising global temperatures and sea level, worsening
storms, and changes in rainfall patterns.
The solution?
Humans putting less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere - by not using fossil fuels.
It is like painfully simple.
But way easier said than done.
How do we go from a world where everything from our clothes, to our cars, to our food
all run on fossil fuels - to a world with zero carbon dioxide emissions?
That’s a daunting question - and from where I’m sitting - decarbonizing everything feels
impossible.
But I also know, we have to do it.
And, we have to start somewhere.
Most experts agree - to significantly reduce our emissions we need to electrify, basically,
EVERYTHING.
And simultaneously clean up how we produce electricity.
So how do we do that?
Fortunately - there is a lot of research looking at just that question.
Take this massive roadmap article out of Stanford Okay, I didn’t actually print the whole
thing out, its like 200 pages.
And lucky for you, Raya Salter, an environmental lawyer, is here to explain it for us.
RAYA: The study looks at whether it is technologically and economically possible, with tech that
exists right now, like offshore wind, to transition 139 countries to 100% wind, water, and solar
power in all energy sectors by 2050.
And it determines that it is.
The researchers assume that by 2050 we will have electrified everything, like gas-powered
cars and trucks, and natural gas heating and cooling.
This was done by looking at things like census and other population data, and the International
Energy Agency’s accounting of global energy use.
They take all this current data and make projections based on how much electricity we need now,
or electricity demand if you’re fancy, and then estimate how much we might need in 2050,
including if we electrify everything.
Then they calculate how much new clean electricity production we’ll need to meet that demand,
as well as just how much land and ocean area we’re gonna need to do it.
The last important chunk of math is how much additional storage will be needed.
Today, energy storage is necessary to keep the grid stable - but we’ll definitely need
more it in the future because for example peak solar production don’t always match
up with when people want to use their kettles.
[SIPS TEA LOUDLY]
And we’re not going to dig too deep into this, but the report does look at costs and
job creation and estimated that we will create more than 24 million jobs than we will lose in the deployment of
this renewable energy. And also estimates that we may avoid nearly 30 trillion dollars a year in 2050
climate costs.
Miriam: Before we go any further- let's be super clear about what we’re talking about.
We’re just going to look at a possible end-state energy mix that’ll be 100% wind, water,
and solar.
There’s lots of research out there, links below, that examine if it is technically and
economically feasible to transition the whole world to 100% wind, water, and solar - it
is, but it's hard.
Also - we’re not going to talk about nuclear.
I’ve made videos about it before, and there’s lots of interesting research out there - but,
and I’m going to punt to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) here -
“Nuclear energy could make an increasing contribution to low-carbon energy supply,
but a variety of barriers and risks exist,” thins like cultural dislike, fear of meltdowns,
nuclears really expensive… these kinds of issues aren’t really present in wind, water,
and solar.
I’m Happy to chat nuclear in the comments, but it isn’t part of this video.
Cool?
Cool.
Anyway - this Stanford study looks at 139 countries in total, but what does this mean
for one of the largest emitters there is - the United States?
What does a possible 100% renewable energy future look like here?
Fortunately - there’s a handy dandy map that takes some of the words and data in this
massive report and visualizes so you can click on states and see what a potential energy
make-up would be.
So for starters it means a TON of onshore wind in the middle of the country.
Say hello to a lot of windmills Kansas and hella offshore wind in NY.
And obviously, it means loads of solar plants in the sunny southeast and southwest.
Dam Vermont, I see you, that’s a lot of hydropower.
But this map is just a possible future.
What does this look like IRL?
Are people and governments actually trying to build these kinds of projects?
Some states are already aiming for 100% carbon free energy.
RAYA: Hawaii has the most rooftop solar PV in the country.
Nearly a fifth (18%) of all homes in Hawaii have solar panels on their roofs.
Hawaii is also doing tons of neat stuff with their power grid.
They’re messing around with a lot of new voltage-management tech like, smart inverters,
storage, and software, to better integrate all this rooftop solar and into the grid.
Back in NYC, where most emissions come from powering buildings.
Oh hey, another cool map.
Gosh I love maps.
But I don’t love all your emissions building!
To deal with all those emissions - NYC is doing broad planning on how buildings of different
sizes must share energy data, and how to use energy efficiency and energy conversions (including
renewables) to update buildings, lower energy costs while making the buildings more comfortable
and healthier to live in.
Over in Colorado - the utility there is planning to retire two coals plants while investing
2.5 billion in renewables instead.
Wind is definitely going to need to be a big player out there.
And, in my home state of Maine - our new Governor Janet Mills has added Maine to the growing
number of states with goals of 100% renewable electricity by 2050 and an 80% reduction in
emissions in that same time.
She’s putting together a council to come up with Maine’s action plan - which doesn’t
sound like much compared to the stories from Hawaii, NY, Colorado, but oh wow is it exciting
to me if you know anything about Maine politics for the last 8ish years….
grrr
RAYA: It’s important to remember that focusing on reducing carbon emissions alone will not
produce the best and most effective results for actual people in a way that’s fair.
While reports like this one [hold up paper printout] that investigate big questions like
what does our future energy mix look like are great - most don’t tackle the sticky
real-life issues that come as a result from building and maintaining new infrastructure.
Who will own these assets, who will pay for them, and how will they be sited and regulated?
How do we address ongoing harms of energy systems, like big heaps of coal ash near playgrounds
in North Carolina? or the high rates of asthma in the Bronx? or places in the US that still
don’t have reliable electricity?
There are a zillion things that need to be looked at before we can truly imagine what
the physical, economic and cultural impacts would be from this scenario.
But this doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t try.
Reports like this can be complemented with other work currently in progress.
For example, in California, scientists have created a mapping tool to identify where and
how different communities are impacted by pollution.
California regulators have used this tool and others too, with community advisory groups,
develop environmental justice plans and equity frameworks.
So I think this report and other research is highlighting a way forward.
Figuring out exactly what our future energy mix will and needs to look like is essential
to solving big problems like climate change and environmental injustices.
The possibilities to re-imagine our energy systems from every perspective, from economics
and health to art and design are endless.
Miriam: This video was mostly about a possible 100% renewable future - the infrastructure
and cultural frameworks that have to be designed, built, and cultivated are another story – so
we haven’t tackled much in terms of economic and political feasibility or pathways.
If that’s something you’re interested in, let us know in the comments and we’ll
work on a follow up video!
But I think it is important to highlight a lot of the good work that is being done by
states and cities and individuals to de-carbonize our energy grid.
It is probably one of the most straightforward ways we can tackle our terrifyingly high emissions.
And as someone who always did the easy questions on the test first so I had more time to tackle
the tricky questions - I cannot stress enough how much it is a good idea to stop burning
fossil fuels to make power now, asap, so we can move on to even harder problems.
Thank you so much for watching, if you want more Raya, check out her twitter and website
linked below.
And let us know if you have any thoughts or questions about what electrifying the world
and going 100% renewable would, could, and should look like.
By3!