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There’s first inofficial info stating that SpaceX will get the FAA approval at the end of this month!
But what if something goes wrong come launch day?
Let’s find out!
My name is Felix, and I am your host for today's episode of What about it.
SpaceX is going into crunch mode for the orbital launch,
and there’s first inofficial info pointing towards a favorable FAA decision at the end of this month!
There’s one pressing question from the WAI community, though.
What happens if a Starship decides to explode on the orbital launchpad?
What would this mean for SpaceX?
Let’s dive right in!
Starship Updates
I’m feeling good today, and you do too!
I’ve always wanted to start a Starship Update with these words, and we do indeed have a lot of positive things to talk about!
First of all, I’d love to show you this.
It should have been on the last episode, but it didn’t make it.
This is ship 24 in the High Bay, showing an aft flap installation.
Ship 24 is now only days away from being ready for first tests.
I get the feeling more and more that SpaceX is sprinting again.
We’ve had this before. Last year, Elon Musk ordered SpaceX staff from all over the US down to Boca Chica and Starbase to help with crunch time.
And I do think we’re going for something similar again.
Why is this so fast?
Starbase is getting ready. First reports are coming in that SpaceX is doing exactly the same again.
The workforce from all over the country is coming to Starbase.
The only possible reason for this would be that SpaceX is very confident in getting the FAA approval at the end of this month.
And there are indications for that too.
While the FAA has not given out any solid answer yet, first signs are popping up here and there that they likely will.
The Valley Morning Star, a local newspaper, titled on Sunday, May 22, that the agency says that mitigation measures will be implemented.
Thanks to Gene and Rachel from Spadre, we even have a picture of the paper.
Researching down the rabbit hole reveals this article featuring the US fish and wildlife service,
directly involved in giving feedback to the FAA regarding the ongoing programmatic environmental assessment.
The report concludes that mitigation measures can help counter the impact.
SpaceX’s efforts are not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of the species listed.
Which is a good thing.
The action area encompasses a relatively small portion of the range-wide habitat of each of the species addressed in this opinion and a small
portion of each species’ population.
That’s a lot of words meaning one thing.
FAA and USFWS conclude that SpaceX’s efforts at Starbase will have a small effect on wildlife and that the right countermeasures will be able
to mitigate the effect almost completely.
And meanwhile, I am hearing from more and more sources that the FAA might indeed give a final decision on May 31st.
That, combined with SpaceX ramping up their efforts greatly at Starbase,
is the first truly positive outlook as to Starbase and the FAA in a long time.
Fingers crossed! We might know more in a week!
Continuing this wave of good signs,
the SpaceX workers are continuing an ongoing upgrade of the mobile test stand next to Mechazilla and the orbital launch mount.
It has recently been utilized for Booster 7 tests and is being refitted for further activity.
It’s unclear what those tests will be, but a few scenarios would be possible.
Raptor 2 engine deliveries continue at the Starbase Production site.
And those are likely meant for Booster 7. It’s recently been outfitted with more and more engines,
indicating SpaceX’s progress towards a first static fire for the booster.
So, it will likely not go onto the mobile test stand again, as that wouldn’t be the right place for a static fire.
Currently, Booster 8 seems to be the more plausible candidate for tests on the mobile stand.
It’s recently received its methane downcomer, which was installed into the lox tank section.
It is now ready for a final stack to complete the tank section.
If SpaceX decides to send it towards the launch site for testing without a finished engine section,
so the same way they did it with Booster 7, this could mean that booster 8 begins cryo testing shortly.
Going back to the launch site, last episode, I talked about a new QD cover arriving at the launch site.
I read your comments, and you’re right.
It likely isn’t a new front cover, but instead the back cover.
It’ll be mounted on the back of the lower quick disconnect interface, covering fuel lines and other vital connections going down outside the mount.
So, it’s not an updated version of the front cover, but instead the missing piece to finish the whole part.
Thanks for pointing it out. Your feedback is as always much appreciated!
Starship Bomb
As said in the beginning, the next topic is one I have seen at least a thousand comments about under my episodes.
Since I do read many of your comments and since it’s a super fun and interesting question,
I decided to try and tackle it with lots of help from Grandpa Joe.
You might know him from our talks in the RGV Aerial Photo review streams or Twitter.
If you don’t, follow him on Twitter at Grandpa Joe 42.
Thanks, Joe!
This is what we’re all waiting for.
The final stack, before an orbital launch.
Everyone getting the popcorn ready after months of waiting.
Then the countdown, the computer starts the ignition sequence, all 33 Raptors on Super Heavy start blasting, and… oh no,
there’s a fluctuation inside the fuel manifold.
One of the engines is shutting down.
Wait, pressure spike.
And… boom. That’s it. An unforeseen anomaly and the whole rocket explodes.
It’s a possible outcome. Not one we’d like to see, but one that could, in theory, happen.
So, what if it does happen? What if a fully fueled Starship and Super Heavy decide to become an ex-rocket on the orbital launch mount?
How bad would it be? Would there be any risk of injury to SpaceX staff or people in Boca Chica?
How about Sout Padre island, the idyllic vacation island next to the launch site?
Would there be a huge catastrophe?
Let’s find out, shall we?
After all, there’s a reason why SpaceX is using Methane and Oxygen as their fuel for the Raptor engine.
It is relatively easy to handle, and when ignited in the right environment and with the right mixture, it creates a powerful reaction.
Controlled, it can lift a Starship into orbit.
Uncontrolled, it could be SpaceX’s worst nightmare.
To show the reason, why this question comes up so often, I chose this picture by @GroundTruthPics, another Twitter account, you should follow.
It's a beautiful image showing the Ship 20 and Booster 4 on February 10th.
And it also shows the oribtal fuel farm and lots of other equipment right next to the orbital launch mount.
Another good source would be Mauricio from RGV Aerial Photography.
On February tenth, he was up in the air, showing the full stack from above.
And as you can see, not only the orbital fuel farm but also the launch mount itself, Mechazille, the old suborbital fuel farm…
…maybe even the production site.
After all, it’s only around 2 miles away.
Let’s see how powerful such an explosion could be.
What’s the explosive potential of a fully fueled Starship and Super Heavy?
Let’s do the math. Around 200 metric tons of Methane in the Ship and another 800 in the booster.
That’s 1 million kilograms of Methane combined.
Scared yet?
Methane has a potential energy of 55.5 Megajoules per kilogram.
So, we’re talking 55.500.000 Megajoules.
This translates to 0.00000024 Kilotons of TNT equivalent per Megajoule.
Doesn’t sound like much? Times 55.5 million, we’re talking about 13.32 kilotons of TNT equivalent.
How about now? Anxiety going up already?
Now, an uncontrolled explosion does not have a 100% efficiency.
So, let’s lower that down to 75% to have a final number we can work with.
9.99 kilotons. To make it easier, let’s even it out to 10.
10 Kilotons. What does that even mean?
How much blast are we talking here?
N1, the Russian Moon rocket that exploded on the pad right after it lifted off, had an equivalent of 6.93 kilotons,
which makes it the largest non-nuclear explosion ever created.
Trinity, the first-ever detonated nuclear bomb, was at around 20 kilotons.
Ha, I love the kiloton.
Operation Blumbbob from 1957 had exactly 10 kilotons.
That does look pretty impressive.
So, if something like that or at least equal to it would go off right on the Orbital Launch mount, what would happen?
Nuclear Secrecy dot com has a tool called Nuke Map.
It allows you to simulate a nuclear blast, which is close to what we’re trying to research here, minus the radioactivity.
The most significant difference would be the temperature at ground zero.
A methane explosion does not vaporize things.
A nuclear blast does. And since the temperature is not that strong, the fireball isn’t that large either.
If we now drag the marker onto the orbital launch mount in Boca Chica and apply our 10 kilotons and a ground explosion as the setting,
we arrive at this.
It shows us a few colored circles, which stand for the expected damage.
The inner yellow circle is the fireball itself.
So, anything inside of it that is unprotected would get charred badly and hit by a strong blastwave.
It would likely include Mechazilla and the orbital tank farm.
A lot of repairs would need to be done there.
Next, we’d have the red circle.
20 psi blast damage is what Nuke Map talks about for a nuclear explosion here.
Again, it’s not the same. Less blast damage, but likely enough to damage all sorts of things.
So, it’s safe to say that the Launch site would need significant repairs.
Then we have the grey ring, which is moderate blast damage.
This pretty much includes all the live cam equipment that was put there by Lab Padre or NSF, for example.
Expect some outage after a possible explosion.
And all the way on the outside is the light grey ring.
This is light blast damage at around 1 psi, capable of shattering windows.
Boca Chica Village is barely outside of it.
There might be a few windows breaking in the village, but that’s basically it.
The production site would get a massive show of light and debris rain, but that’s pretty much it as well.
South Padre or even Brownsville further out would not see any damage.
They might hear the boom in the distance, and a few birds might decide to fly to an even safer distance.
That’s it.
So, even though footage like this might drive up anxiety levels for an orbital launch, besides significant repairs to the launch site,
not much would happen.
SpaceX’s Starship would go into the Guinness book of records for creating the largest artificial non-nuclear explosion in the world,
but after a few months of repairs, the next Starship would attempt to put on a less explosive show.
A great question to answer! Thank you all for asking over and over again!
I should have done this sooner!
That was fun! Thanks go out to Ground Truth Pics and Grandpa Joe for the research help and the awesome pictures!
You Rock!
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